Let’s get to Sunday’s interesting facts, using DraftKings prices.
Five Things to Watch:
1. Here are the three highest projected over/unders, provided by OddsShark…
2. Weather: We should be all clear for Friday.
3. You down with BvP? Evan Longoria has a .889 OPS against Ivan Nova lifetime. Joe Mauer is 11-for-34 with 2 HR against Jose Quintana. Hanley Ramirez is 9-for-27 against Tim Lincecum. Melky Cabrera is 11-for-25 against Ricky Nolasco. Brian McCann is 12-for-23 with 3 HR against Jake Odorizzi. Joey Votto is 9-for-22 against with 2 HR against Edwin Jackson. Dioner Navarro is 8-for-21 against Nolasco.
4. Your three biggest pitching favorites for the night: Kenta Maeda against Arizona (-235), Rick Porcello against the Angels (-170) and Steven Matz (-170) against Colorado.
5. Sneaky stack options: The White Sox have enjoyed a lot of success against Ricky Nolasco in the past. Not many people will be on the Reds, but Edwin Jackson is very hittable. The Rays should be able to put some runs on Ivan Nova at home.
Must-Start of the day: Jose Altuve, HOU
Spend up at second base, as Altuve is facing a lefty and is hitting .500 over his last ten games with 3 HR. On the season, Altuve has a crazy 1.045 OPS against southpaws. Don’t forget to factor in his speed, either.
Deal of the day: Trevor Bauer, CLE
Oakland can struggle to piece together offense, and Bauer’s strikeout power (102 in 111 IP) at this price ($8300) at home makes him awfully appealing. Over his last ten games, Bauer has averaged nearly 20 points per start on Draft Kings. He’s a fantastic second pitching option who can save you some coin.
Avoid of the day: Ivan Nova, NYY
He’s way overpriced for my taste, as he averages only 10.4 Draft Kings points a start, but is priced at $8300. The strikeout power isn’t there (72 in 101 IP) and he has a 4.65 ERA this season. I don’t get it.
Stack of the day: Boston Red Sox
Maybe it’s a little too easy to take the team with an OPS of .830, which is nearly .50 points higher than anyone else, but it’s impossible to ignore how terrible Tim Lincecum has been this season. In 30 innings, Lincecum has a 8.70 ERA and a 2.30 WHIP, allowing hitters to rack up a .391 average. If you can spend the money, stack your Red Sox.
Kenta Maeda, LAD: He’s the biggest favorite on the board Friday, and for good reason. His opposition is the lowest priced pitcher on Draft Kings, he’s at home and he’s averaging more than a strikeout per inning this year. I’ll save the $3400 between Maeda and Scherzer and go with Maeda.
Rick Porcello, BOS: He’s another big favorite, and you have to think the run support will pour in with Lincecum on the hill for the Angels. He’s 13-2 this year for a reason, and he should be able to limit the damage and pick up an easy win bonus.
Trevor Bauer, CLE: “Deal of the day”
Brian McCann, NYY: He’s on a four-game hitting streak right now, but more importantly, he’s 12-for-23 with 3 HR against Jake Odorizzi lifetime. At just $3200, he’s a good, cheap bet to get a homer.
Dioner Navarro, CWS: Dioner Navarro is 8-for-21 lifetime against Nolasco.
Joey Votto, CIN: Votto is 9-for-22 against with 2 HR against Edwin Jackson.
Hanley Ramirez, BOS: Ramirez is 9-for-27 against Tim Lincecum and is cheap at just $4000.
Daniel Murphy, WAS: 1.025 OPS vs RHP this season and Samardzija struggles with left-handed bats this season.
Jose Altuve, HOU: “Must-start of the day”
Travis Shaw, BOS: Red Sox stack.
Evan Longoria, TB: Longoria has a .889 OPS against Ivan Nova lifetime
Xander Bogaerts, BOS: He’s crucial to our Sox stack and is hitting .429 over his last ten games.
Carlos Correa, HOU: Makes for a nice mini Astros stack with Altuve.
Mookie Betts, BOS: Red Sox stack.
Matt Kemp, SD: 6 HR in last 10 games and is dangerous against left-handed pitching.
Melky Cabrera, CWS: White Sox stack, and Cabrera is 11-for-25 against Ricky Nolasco.