2015 MLB Mock Draft: Latest 1st-Round Predictions for Top Baseball Prospects – Bleacher Report

Even though some of the top prospects in the 2015 Major League Baseball draft are still playing in the College World Series, their lives could change on Monday.

It’s a long, arduous journey to reach the highest level of baseball, one that takes years for even the best prospects, but the fun is in seeing how these young men go from being highly sought-after prospects to MLB stars. 

The future is what drives conversation in sports. Never is that more evident than on draft night, as teams and fans have to believe they have secured their long-term outlooks with at least one player who will turn into a franchise building block. 

After months of scouting and evaluating hundreds of players, here is how things project to shake out in the draft’s first round. 

Storylines to Follow

Dansby Swanson’s Ascent

It would be hard for a player to do more to solidify his spot as the top pick in this draft than Dansby Swanson has over the last 12 months. Vanderbilt’s shortstop was named Most Outstanding Player during last year’s College World Series and has gotten better in 2015. 

With all eyes focused on his performance, Swanson more than quadrupled his home run output this season (14) compared to the previous two years combined (three), hitting a career-best .348/.443/.656 slash line in helping lead the Commodores to the NCAA tournament. 

MLB.com’s Dan O’Dowd, who previously served as general manager for the Colorado Rockies, made the case for Arizona to take Swanson with the No. 1 overall pick:

Swanson competes on every pitch and doesn’t fear failure, two important traits. You can tell he’s good at making adjustments at the plate and is the kind player who demonstrates a joy of the game while maintaining an even keel. …

In Swanson, the D-backs would be getting a guy who has a great combination of a high floor and a high ceiling, and that’s too good to pass up in a Draft with so much uncertainty.

Brady Aiken’s Hope

More than any player in this draft, Brady Aiken’s status is uncertain. There’s no doubt last year’s top pick will be taken, but there’s no clearly identifiable team to link with him. He also had Tommy John surgery in March, announcing it on the Players’ Tribune website:

Yesterday, I had Tommy John surgery to fix my left arm. I’m obviously extremely disappointed. I wanted to let my pitching speak for itself, but now there are going to be new distractions. For that reason, I wanted to be the one to tell people what’s happened and make this a fresh start.

John Manuel of Baseball America did write in his fourth mock draft that there seems to be a link between Aiken and the Los Angeles Dodgers.

“The Brady Aiken-to-L.A. rumors won’t stop, and this mock draft isn’t the place to stop them,” Manuel wrote. “With a comp pick, the Dodgers can handle the risk.”

The Dodgers pick 24th and 35th, so they certainly have some wiggle room to take a chance on a player like Aiken. They also have a front office that has proved willing to put its money where its mouth is, though that’s mostly been at the MLB level, with the exception of Yasiel Puig’s original $42 million deal in 2012. 

MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo projected Aiken to go even higher, 15th overall to the Milwaukee Brewers, noting that “there’s been some buzz that he’ll go in the top 15 picks if those (health) questions are answered to a team’s satisfaction.”

The Brewers need impact in their farm system but went heavy with high-upside projection in the top 50 last year with Kodi Medeiros, Jacob Gatewood and Monte Harrison. For the record, Gatewood and Harrison are hovering at or below the Mendoza Line, and Medeiros has a 4.21 ERA with 21 walks in 51.1 innings in Low-A, according to MiLB.com. 

In other words, Milwaukee may be looking for more of a sure thing in the first round after seeing all those players go through various struggles in their first years of professional baseball. 

While a lot can end up happening when teams go to make their selection, the Dodgers at No. 35 feels like the best landing spot for Aiken. He can get a solid signing bonus, go through his rehab with a top-flight organization and begin his journey back to starting in 2016. 

Houston’s Play

Aiken’s misfortune has ties with the Houston Astros, who failed to sign him last year and as a result get the second pick as compensation to go along with their original selection at No. 5. 

Even though the Astros aren’t going to get a player with the potential Aiken had, they do benefit financially this year by having two of the first five selections. According to MLB.com’s Jim Callis, the team has a record $17,289,200 bonus pool in the first 10 rounds. 

The Astros are in uncharted territory since Jeff Luhnow took over as general manager. In the past three years, they’ve had the top pick and got Carlos Correa (2012), Mark Appel (2013) and Aiken (2014). Now, they have to plan as if the best overall player won’t be on the board while needing more due diligence because of that extra first-round pick. 

Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle reported in early May that the Astros were split between position players and pitchers for those two picks:

According to a top American League scout, the 11 players currently under the Astros’ consideration for the No. 2 and 5 picks include five righthanded pitchers and six position players. …

At this point, at least, none of those players has reached the acclaim Aiken, Mark Appel and Carlos Correa garnered before going first overall to the Astros.

One month later, especially on the day of the draft, Houston will have its board set. Yet it’s telling that no single player has separated himself from the pack to seem like a lock for the Astros at No. 2, assuming Swanson is off the board. 

ESPN Insider Keith Law noted in his second mock draft that the Astros “want” Swanson at No. 2, but he also notes that the two names after him are Brendan Rodgers and Alex Bregman. Rodgers has the higher ceiling and seems like the kind of talent Houston would want to take second overall. 

Money doesn’t figure to be a problem for the Astros in this draft, as players can toss out their demands knowing Houston isn‘t as limited as most teams. Luhnow and Co. can simply play the board how they want and reap the future rewards.