2017 Fantasy Baseball draft strategy: Looking for signs of a Felix Hernandez bounceback – CBSSports.com

Every pitcher in major-league history has been at the point Felix Hernandez reached last year. That point where your stuff just doesn’t have the life it once did, and you need to adjust or get left behind.

For some pitchers, that point comes early, but they manage it. For instance, Johan Santana lost a full 1.5 MPH from 2006 to 2007, at 27 years old, but mostly kept right on rolling until injuries ultimately derailed him. On the other hand, CC Sabathia lost five full ticks from 2011 to 2014, and has clearly struggled to figure out how to thrive into his 30’s.

Hernandez’s velocity has been in steady decline since his early 20’s, like any other pitcher, but last year was the first time he lost more than a mile per hour off his heater as it dropped from 91.8 to 90.5 MPH. It was also the first time Hernandez really stumbled since his breakout in 2008, as he posted a 3.82 ERA, his worst in a decade. What makes that number look even worse is he might have been lucky it wasn’t worse. Hernandez also sported a 4.63 FIP and 4.45 xFIP, both of which were the first he’s had over 4.00 ever.

Hernandez clearly wasn’t the same pitcher in 2016. Whether the calf injury that sidelined him for a month and a half midseason was the reason or not, he enters 2017 as a bigger question mark than ever. Recovering some of that lost velocity won’t be a silver bullet to fix what ails him, but, if you’re looking for reasons to be optimistic about Hernandez after his down season, that would be the place to start.

And we have some promising signs from what we’ve seen from Hernandez. He made one start in spring training with PITCHf/x data available, and averaged 91.8 MPH between his sinker and four-seam fastball. Last spring, he had 110 fastballs tracked, and those came in at 90.9 MPH on average, so there’s a clear improvement in that regard. In fact, he is within spitting distance of his April 2015 average of 92.1. That alone should give you reason to be optimistic.

Of course, it goes without saying that velocity isn’t everything. It’s a piece of the puzzle, and it could be a big one, showing as it does that Hernandez has recovered at least some of the physical ability he may have lost a year ago. However, what Hernandez showed Wednesday in World Baseball Classic action is what really got me excited.

Hernandez tossed five shutout innings against a stacked United States lineup, scattered three hits and walked none. He struck out just three in the game, but also picked up seven groundball outs on 17 batters faced, and had his pitches dancing all over the place. There isn’t PITCHf/x data for the outing available, but Hernandez threw 42 of his 61 pitches for strikes, and, according to MLB.com’s play by play data, hit 93.6 MPH with one second inning pitch to Christian Yelich.

That is higher than any pitch tracked by either BaseballSavant.com or BrooksBaseball.com for Hernandez in 2016. Those sites may not have the same data as MLB.com’s play-by-play, so that might not be proof that he is throwing harder than at any point last season, but it’s certainly a good sign. He’ll never be the guy he was in his mid-20’s, a dominant presence on the mound who could blow 97 MPH sinkers past overmatched hitters. Hernandez is still going to have to get by more on guile than he did as a young, perennial Cy Young candidate.

However, we’re not asking him to get back to that point. At this point, it’s just about minimizing or reversing losses. Hernandez clearly struggled with diminished velocity last season, and while it doesn’t mean he can’t figure out how to be effective where he was, any little bit helps.

These are positive signs for a pitcher who hasn’t had many of those in the last year.  Even a return to 2015, when he was the No. 16 pitcher in Rotisserie scoring, would be welcomed. As of mid-March, Hernandez is going off the board as the No. 30 starting pitcher, on average, so there is plenty of room for him to provide value on that draft price, even if he’s never vintage King Felix again.