2017 World Baseball Classic final: The keys to a US win over Puerto Rico – CBSSports.com

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Wednesday night in Dodger Stadium, the United States and Puerto Rico will play one final game to determine the 2017 World Baseball Classic (
9 p.m. ET: How to watch USA-Puerto Rico
). As was the case when these two teams met in second-round pool play (
PR 6, USA 5
), right-hander Marcus Stroman of the Blue Jays will go for the U.S. opposite right-hander Seth Lugo of the Mets for Puerto Rico.

So what’s it going to take for the U.S. to top Puerto Rico in this winner-take-all affair? Consider what follows to be a non-exhaustive list … 

Get a strong outing from Stroman

Starting pitching has been a pronounced strength for Team USA throughout this, its deepest WBC run ever. However, Stroman’s start against Puerto Rico in pool play was an exception, as he allowed four runs on eight hits in 4 1/3 innings of work. Stroman walked only one on the night and spotted 51 of his 77 pitches for strikes. However, he was hit hard in the zone, as his line for the game will tell you. This might be an emotional outing for Stroman, who has had to defend himself and his mother for choosing to pitch for the U.S. over Puerto Rico. Keeping those emotions in check will be key. 

Survive Puerto Rico’s 2-3-4 hitters

This goes for Stroman and whoever else pitches against Puerto Rico in this game. You know, of course, that P.R.’s two-three-four hitters — Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa and Carlos Beltran — are excellent hitters. They’ve also been producing at a high level throughout the 2017 WBC. Coming into Wednesday night’s final, Lindor owns a WBC OPS of 1.221, Correa checks in at 1.463 and Beltran is at 1.065. If you limit the damage that heart of the order does, then the rest of the PR lineup should be manageable. That’ll be a real test for the US staff in the final. 

Don’t hit the ball on the ground

Puerto Rico’s infield defense is strong. In Lindor, you have one of the best defensive shortstops in the game today. Javier Baez, the second baseman, is of course an elite fielder, and Correa, a shortstop, has looked strong at the less-premium position of third base during the tournament. Fortunately for the U.S., Lugo’s ground-ball tendencies aren’t as strong as you would think given his repertoire (sinker and high-spin curve are probably his best two offerings). However, he attacks them, the U.S. lineup will do well to elevate the ball against Lugo and keep their balls in play out of the teeth of the P.R. defense. 

Do damage in the middle innings

Puerto Rico boasts one of the best young closers in the game in Edwin Diaz. However, the bridge from Lugo to Diaz is much less certain. That Hector Santiago has worked high-leverage relief innings for Puerto Rico in this tournament says a lot. If the game’s tight, then the U.S. probably needs to get its licks in before Diaz, coming off an off day, takes the bump. 

Get Nolan Arenado going

The Rockies third baseman might be the best all-around player on the U.S. roster, but he’s not hitting. Coming into the final, Areando in the WBC has batted .136/.208/.318, and he’s coming off a performance against Japan in the semifinals in which he went 0 for 4 with four strikeouts. U.S. manager Jim Leyland seems to have forgotten that Alex Bregman is on the roster, so there’s no reason to think Arenado won’t start in the final. That’s perfectly reasonable, given Arenado’s defensive value and the sample size underpinning his offensive struggles. On Wednesday, however, the Americans might need a big hit from the guy who has cracked 83 homers over the past two MLB seasons (and, before you say something, 38 away from Coors Field over that span). 

Keep not running

The U.S. has only one stolen base (by Eric Hosmer, it should be noted). That’s a remarkably risk-averse approach, but it’s a wise one given the power up and down the lineup. It would behoove the Americans to stick to that strategy Wednesday given that “Death to Running Things” Yadier Molina will be behind the plate for Puerto Rico. Molina has already cut down more than his share of runners,
attentive
or
otherwise
, in the WBC, so let’s not test him. 

Get lucky

People, we’re talking about one isolated game of baseball in March. Baseball has so much structural parity and randomness that sketching out what will happen in advance is a fool’s errand. It’s easy to forget this across the sprawl of the six-month regular season, but weird bounces, bloop hits and other flavors of happenstance can play an outsized role in any one game. Lest we forget, this is one game. If it’s close, then the U.S. might need that lucky break to get past an undefeated Puerto Rico squadron. 

Now let’s do this.