(Joe Camporeale, USA TODAY Sports)
The annual Tout Wars fantasy baseball auctions took place this weekend in my home state of New York, at Sirius XM Radio’s Manhattan building. I returned for the 15-team mixed auction, where I fell just short of the title during the final weeks of last season.
Hopefully, my notes can help with your auctions. Note: This is a league that counts on-base percentage, not batting average, so take that into consideration when using this auction as a guideline.
1. Tiers will alleviate fears.
Honing in on one player is a terrible notion. Grouping similar names into tiers and having target amounts for each will keep your mind open.
I didn’t imagine that I would own numerous players I did on Saturday, but they made sense with the plan.
Tout Wars mixed auction results
2. You can still build a strong team if you buy aggressively early.
In mixed leagues, spreading the risk is overrated.
In the first third or so of the auction, I made it rain. Mookie Betts $32. Jonathan Lucroy $17. Carlos Carrasco $22. Edwin Encarnacion $33. Todd Frazier $27.
As long as you take breaths at certain points to get money off the board from positions where you’re already strong, you can easily spend in waves.
In mixers, single-digit and one-dollar players are more abundant and useful than they’ve been in my recent memory. Prices for top studs have increased, so the middle and back end of the player pool has become almost uniform.
3. Take advantage of extreme regression bias.
Brandon Crawford … $7. After a 21-homer season. Cool with me.
Think he can’t do that again? The 29-year-old was top-10 last year in fly-ball distance, so that exaggerated ability to leave the yard isn’t as crazy as it seems.
A 15-homer season would rank him among the top 10 shortstops. In OBP leagues, Crawford could easily deliver numbers similar to Corey Seager’s ($18 Saturday) or a decent chunk of Xander Bogaerts’ ($21).
4. Older players remain solid buying opportunities.
Thirty-six-year-old Albert Pujols ($12) has raked this spring after foot surgery. Risky? Sure, but that market price … I love it.
You could call 30-year-old Carlos Gonzalez “old” because of his long career and noted injury troubles. But a clearance tag of $20 more than makes up for his faults.
2016 Draft Guide
5. So are players deemed imperfect for the format.
It’s vital to know how to manipulate your league’s rules. But you could also earn bargains by going against them.
The “bad OBP” discounts were prevalent here. My $27 Todd Frazier and the $34 Nolan Arenado (on which I almost went $35) were fine examples, compared to $37 Kris Bryant, $39 Josh Donaldson and $42 Manny Machado.
6. Don’t fear the underpriced unknown.
Jose Reyes for $1. Injured but talented Devon Travis and Jhonny Peralta as reserves.
Reyes’ purported off-field actions are inexcusable. But for fantasy purposes, if he’s only suspended for something around half the season, he’ll easily repay and vastly surpass his draft-day price.
The DL-bound players provide two free roster spots for opening weekend. This could wind up a stacked middle infield in the second half to go along with Crawford and Jason Kipnis. #TradeChips
7. Player prices depend on context.
How deep into the draft did the buy take place? What were the bidders’ remaining needs? What did the player pool look like?
I got some flak about spending $7 on Crawford. Thing is: He might not be a perfect candidate, but when I bought him, I had a few steal-heavy players I needed to balance out. In the context of what was left, he gave me the final power push I needed to feel comfortable.
Instead, I look at it as $23 for Crawford and across-the-board stability in Kipnis ($16). Per BaseballHQ.com, that’s a projected 31 homers and 20 steals among my second base and shortstop spots.
Also … Billy Hamilton $15, Delino DeShields $11, my Billy Burns $6. Try to find patterns for similar player types where you can pounce.
Stick to your guns. Read the room. Capitalize.
