NEW ORLEANS — 1 PM Thursday update:
The 1 PM advisory has just been released from the National Hurricane Center, it shows little change from the previous advisory issued at 10 AM. Barry’s presentation on satellite is looking more defined and slightly better organized, a sign that it is beginning to take advantage of the warm ocean waters and a slight reduction in wind shear and dry air.
In terms of any forecast track changes, none have been issued on this advisory. This does not change the forecast for us here. This will be a major rainmaker. Where the heaviest rains fall is still yet to be determined. We do expect further intensification to eventually a Category 1 hurricane before landfall late Friday. The next advisory is scheduled to be released at 1 PM.
There are a few variables that are hindering the development of the storm currently. Dry air bookends the system to the southwest and the northeast. Also wind shear is taking its toll, out of the northeast, this is displacing the convection (thunderstorms) to the southwest of the center. A sign of a healthy, or developing storm is convection beginning to encircle the center. This is not yet occurring.
Eventually conditions should become more conducive and the very warm ocean waters in the northern Gulf of Mexico will help the storm deepen in the coming days.
TROPICAL STORM BARRY: Path, Spaghetti Models, Live Radar
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The slow projected movement of the storm will also aid in its intensification in the coming days, longer time over water will lead to a stronger storm. We need not fixate on the storm category though, water is the headline here.
Computer model projections paint the heaviest of the rain on the eastern and southeastern parts of the storm. A storm track taking the center west of New Orleans will mean the heaviest precipitation will fall overhead.
This is what current model forecasts are leaning towards. If this was to happen we could be dealing with rainfall totals on the order of 10-15″ but this will change with newer data. On top of freshwater flooding, a dangerous storm surge threat will also be present as the storm gets ready to make landfall. Areas likely to be affected by this will be southern and southeastern Louisiana.
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This is also a good time to refresh yourself on the differences between watches and warnings. Right now coastal Louisiana is under a Hurricane WATCH, this simply means, watch out as hurricane conditions are possible within the next 48 hours. If and when the watches are upgraded to warnings this will mean that hurricane conditions are imminent.
The biggest concerns right now for this potential impact will be the slow movement leading to a prolonged heavy rain event for the region. NOAA hurricane aircraft is currently flying into the developing storm to gather data to be used in computer model runs as we go forward.
2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted 9-15 named storms for the 2019 hurricane season. It says four to eight of them will become hurricanes and two to four of those would become major hurricanes with 111 mph winds or higher.
Colorado State University, which pioneered hurricane season predictions, is forecasting 13 named storms, five to become hurricanes and two to hit major status. Hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach predicted that overall the Atlantic season will be about three-quarters strong as a normal season.
The Atlantic basin averages 12 named storms a year, with six becoming hurricanes and three becoming major storms.
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Stay with Eyewitness News on WWL-TV and WWLTV.com for more on this developing story.
