Vladimir Guerrero could go in on his first ballot. Maybe Tim Raines finally completes his climb up the voting to reach Cooperstown. Or Jeff Bagwell, who got the most votes of anyone who wasn’t elected last year, gets his turn for enshrinement.
It’s officially voting season for the Baseball Hall of Fame with the announcement of the 2017 ballot on Monday. The more than 400 voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America will begin deliberating this week and the results will be announced Jan. 18 on the MLB Network. Players must be named on 75% of ballots to be elected.
We’re here to guide you through the list of candidates, which also includes Manny Ramirez, Pudge Rodriguez and Trevor Hoffman. Oh, and a former Yankee catcher who was a key cog on four World Series champions — Jorge Posada, the first member of the so-called “Core Four” to hit the ballot.
Who’s getting in? Who’s got to wait?
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CLASS OF 2017 POTENTIAL
Jeff Bagwell: Bagwell, the slugging Astros first baseman, jumped from 55.7% of the vote in ’15 to 71.6% last year and has significant momentum going into his seventh try on the ballot. He’s got a nice resume — 449 homers, ’94 NL MVP award, .948 career OPS (22nd all-time) — and likely will get the 15 votes he lacked last year for enshrinement.
Vladimir Guerrero: Powerful, athletic outfielder had 10 100-RBI seasons, which is a lot no matter what you think of that stat. He batted .300 13 times, including 12 years in a row. His career .931 OPS and one of the great throwing arms of all-time give him a solid shot in his first year.
Trevor Hoffman: Everybody loves closers, from managers to teammates to fans of clubs that have a good one. Except at Hall of Fame voting time. While most everyone agrees that Mariano Rivera will get in when it’s his turn, Hoffman only got 67.3% of the vote last year and remains kind of a mystery for election. Rivera clearly had the greater career — he’s got 652 saves, tops all-time and Hoffman is second with 601 — and is one of the great postseason pitchers of all time. Still, Hoffman may be on track — only Gil Hodges and Jack Morris ever got more than 60% of the vote and didn’t get in.
Tim Raines: The second-greatest leadoff hitter ever, behind Rickey Henderson? Many think so. He got 69.8% last year and should be headed toward Cooperstown in his 10th and final year as some players enjoy significant bumps in their last chance.
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Ivan Rodriguez: One of the great catchers ever, but some aren’t convinced he was clean during his career, which may affect his candidacy. He was a 14-time All-Star, a 13-time Gold Glove winner and he slammed 311 homers and finished with 2,844 hits. May not make it this time, but will be a yearly threat.
SECOND TIER
Manny Ramirez
(BRIAN SNYDER/REUTERS)
Manny Ramirez: If it were all about numbers, this is a no-brainer. For much of his career, “Manny being Manny” meant massive production — he had 555 career homers and a .996 OPS. But he also failed two drug tests and the biggest cheaters haven’t found much traction in the voting.
Barry Bonds: He’s baseball’s all-time home runs leader, like it or not, but the taint of steroid allegations has kept the vote totals low on him. In four years, he’s gotten 36.2%, 34.7%, 36.8% and 44.3% last year. Not exactly gaining a foothold.
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Roger Clemens: He’s got seven Cy Young Awards, but he faces the same problems Bonds does and he’s not getting any momentum, either, with these percentages: 37.6%, 35.4%, 37.5%, 45.2%.
Jeff Kent: The 2000 NL MVP had 377 homers, dynamite for a guy who spent much of his time at second base. Voters are not in love, however, and he has not gotten higher than the 16.6% of votes he notched last year. Is this the year he at least starts trending upward?
Edgar Martinez: The greatest designated hitter in history — Hey, David Ortiz isn’t eligible yet — loses points because he didn’t play the field in 1,403 of his 2,055 games. Still, his rate stats are absurd — .312/.418/.515. If there were no DH, he might be in already as a great hitter who hid at an infield corner his whole career.
Curt Schilling: Rose to 52.3% of the vote last year on his strong career and remarkable postseason chops. It will be interesting to see if his vote totals will be affected by his controversial Twitter work — he praised a photo that contained a T-shirt threatening journalists, angering some. Schilling later said his tweet was “100% sarcasm.”
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Gary Sheffield: He’s a member of the 500-home run club and was one of the most feared righty hitters of his era, but he only got 11.6% of the votes. We’ll see if that is attributable to ballot crowding last year.
Lee Smith: Again, closers get little love. Smith got only 34.1% last year and is in his final year on the ballot. He’ll need a huge last-chance jump. Maybe we all appreciate relievers more after this past postseason? That could help the man with 478 saves, which was good enough for the all-time mark from 1993-2006.
Mike Mussina: Great Oriole, great Yankee, big-time career. He won 270 games while pitching his entire career in the rugged AL East. Still, his voting percentages have gone from 20.3% to 24.6% to 43%. He’ll need to add again to prove he’s getting momentum.
Fred McGriff: Despite 10 seasons of 30 or more homers, he’s never gotten more than 23.9% of the vote. Last year, he was at 20.9% and has a long way to go.
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Jorge Posada: Yanks always had an advantage because their catcher was an offensive star who excelled at getting on base. His .848 career OPS is better than — get ready for this — Yogi Berra (.830) and Johnny Bench (.817). His 275 homers are eighth among backstops. The big question in his candidacy is how voters will grade his defense.
Billy Wagner: Certainly one of the best closers of his era, he was also among the most intimidating and he used heat to strike out 11.9 per nine innings. He was incredibly hard to hit — opponents batted just .187 against him. But unless there’s a new appreciation of relievers, he’ll only tick upward from last year’s 10.5% of the vote this time.
Magglio Ordonez: Six-time All-Star outfielder had a strong career, but seems shy of making a serious run at induction.
THE REST
Here’s the list of the others on the ballot: Casey Blake, Pat Burrell, Orlando Cabrera, Mike Cameron, J.D. Drew, Carlos Guillén, Derrek Lee, Melvin Mora, Edgar Rentería, Arthur Rhodes, Freddy Sánchez, Sammy Sosa, Matt Stairs, Jason Varitek, Tim Wakefield, Larry Walker.
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We’ll take these as a group and none will make much noise. Obviously, Sosa is the biggest name, but he’s really got no chance based on the four time he’s been voted on. Sosa is eighth all-time in home runs (609) and hit 63 or more three times, but he’s never gotten more than the 12.5% he got his 2013, his first year. He was named on only 7% of ballots last year. If he falls below 5%, he will disappear from the ballot.
Walker deserves mention for a big-time career, but he’s never gotten more than 22.9% of the vote and there’s no doubt some voters believe that playing at Coors Field added heaps to his terrific offensive production.
