When the 2017 Baseball Hall of Fame class is announced next month, the next group of ex-stars will be headed toward Cooperstown. While it’s always tough to guess how yearly voting will go, keeping track of public ballots gives an indication of how the final tally will look.
Thanks to Ryan Thibodaux’s work on Twitter, one baseball fan has compiled every single ballot that becomes public–including NJ Advance Media columnist Steve Politi.
The big takeaways from the most recent count:
-Four players are on the path to induction in 2017: Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, Ivan Rodriguez and Vladimir Guerrero. With 132 ballots accounted for (32 percent of the total eligible voter field), Bagwell has received 93 percent of the vote and Raines has been listed on 90 percent of ballots. Rodriguez (85 percent) and Guerrero (77 percent) are both above the 75 percent threshold needed for induction, but not quite as clear as both Bagwell and Raines.
Bagwell (71.6 percent) and Raines (69.8 percent) just missed the cut for the 2016 class. This is Raines’ 10th and final year on the ballot.
-Trevor Hoffman is polling at 71 percent, slightly below what would be needed for induction. The former Padres closer received 67.3 percent of the final tally last year. With a 10-name limit for voters, the modest uptick–compared to much bigger jumps for others–could suggest that some Hoffman voters have removed him since last year due to stars like Rodriguez, Guerrero and Manny Ramirez entering this year’s ballot.
-Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens have seen huge gains in public balloting. After coming in a 44.3 and 45.2 percent, respectively, in 2016, both controversial ex-greats are polling at 71 percent. While public voters tend to be more willing to put players in with performance-enhancing drug issues on the ballot, it’s almost impossible to imagine the early results not leading to a big jump when final numbers arrive. If both Bonds and Clemens creep up to the 60 percent range, eventual induction is likely just a matter of time.
-Mike Mussina is polling at 63 percent, putting the former Yankee and Orioles star on upswing toward eventually earning enough votes for induction.
-Ex-Yankees catching great Jorge Posada has only 5.2% of the vote thus far, virtually eliminating any possibility of induction this year.
The 2017 Baseball Hall of Fame class will be announced on Wednesday, Jan. 18.
Joe Giglio may be reached at jgiglio@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @JoeGiglioSports. Find NJ.com on Facebook.
