When it comes to Baseball Hall of Fame voting, close calls almost always lead to candidates being elected in the near future … often the very next year.
Going by a lot of past history, we thus can expect Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines to be part of the 2017 class and for Trevor Hoffman to get in next year or the year after.
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Candidates need to be on 75 percent of the BBWAA voter ballots for election, but anyone getting 60 percent is a virtual lock to eventually get in.
Bagwell (71.6 percent) and Raines (69.8) just fell short of joining Ken Griffey Jr. (99.3) and Mike Piazza (83.0) in the 2016 Hall of Fame class, which was announced Wednesday. A first-time candidate, Hoffman was close, too, at 67.3 percent.
Two recent near misses who were elected the next year were Piazza, who got 69.9 percent of the vote in 2015, and Craig Biggio, who was at 74.8 percent in 2014 and got in with 82.7 percent in 2015.
The tradition of close calls getting in the next year goes back to the beginning, as former Philadelphia A’s and Chicago White Sox second baseman Eddie Collins was on 66.8 percent of the ballots in the inaugural Hall of Fame vote in 1938 and then was inducted the next year when jumping to 77.7 percent.
Since those first two elections, all but two players who received at least 60 percent of the vote in a given year now are Hall of Famers.
The exceptions are Brooklyn Dodgers first baseman Gil Hodges and Jack Morris, a former Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays ace who has great postseason numbers.
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Four others were inducted by a Veteran’s Committee (Orlando Cepeda, Jim Bunning, Nellie Fox and Enos Slaughter), three by BBWAA runoff elections (Red Ruffing, Luke Appling, Charlie Gehringer), and two by a Old-Timer’s Committee (Eddie Waddell, Frank Chance).
Here’s a look at the voting history for Hall of Famers who got in after previously falling short with at least 60 percent of the vote:
- Mike Piazza: 62.2 in 2014, 69.9 in 2015, 83.0 in 2016 (IN)
- Craig Biggio: 68.2 in 2013, 74.8 in 2014, 82.7 in 2015 (IN)
- Barry Larkin: 51.6 in 2010, 62.1 in 2011, 86.4 in 2012 (IN)
- Roberto Alomar: 73.7 in 2010, 90.0 in 2011 (IN)
- Bert Blyleven: 61.9 in 2008, 62.7 in 2009, 74.2 in 2010, 79.7 in 2011 (IN)
- Andre Dawson: 45.3 in 2002, 50.0 in 2003, 50.0 in 2004, 52.3 in 2005, 61.0 in 2006, 56.7 in 2007, 65.9 in 2008, 67.0 in 2009, 77.9 in 2010 (IN)
- Jim Rice: 29.8 in 1995, 35.3 in 1996, 37.6 in 1997, 42.9 in 1998, 29.4 in 1999, 51.5 in 2000, 57.9 in 2001, 55.1 in 2002, 52.2 in 2003, 54.5 in 2004, 595 in 2005, 64.8 in 2006, 63.5 in 2007, 72.2 in 2008, 76.4 in 2009 (IN)
- Goose Gossage: 33.3 in 2000, 44.3 in 2001, 43.0 in 2002, 42.1 in 2003, 40.7 in 2004, 55.2 in 2005, 64.6 in 2006, 71.2 in 2007, 85.8 in 2008 (IN)
- Gary Carter: 42.3 in 1998, 33.8 in 1999, 49.7 in 2000, 64.9 in 2001, 72.7 in 2002, 78.0 in 2003 (IN)
- Carlton Fisk: 66.4 in 1999, 79.6 in 2000 (IN)
- Tony Perez: 50.0 in 1992, 55.1 in 1993, 57.7 in 1994, 56.3 in 1995, 65.7 in 1996, 66.0 in 1997, 67.9 in 1998, 60.8 in 1999, 77.2 in 2000 (IN)
- Orlando Cepeda: 12.5 in 1980, 19.2 in 1981, 10.1 in 1982, 15.8 in 1983, 30.8 in 1984, 28.9 in 1985, 35.8 in 1986, 43.3 in 1987, 46.6 in 1988, 39.4 in 1989, 47.5 in 1990, 43.3 in 1991, 57.2 in 1992, 59.6 in 1993, 73.5 in 1994; inducted by Veterans Committee in 1999
- Don Sutton: 56.8 in 1994, 57.4 in 1995, 63.8 in 1996, 73.2 in 1997, 81.6 in 1998 (IN)
- Phil Niekro: 65.7 in 1993, 59.9 in 1994, 62.2 in 1995, 65.7 in 1996, 81.6 in 1998 (IN)
- Nellie Fox: 10.8 in 1971, 16.2 in 1972, 19.2 in 1973, 21.6 in 1984, 21.0 in 1975, 44.8 in 1976, 39.7 in 1977, 39.3 in 1978, 40.3 in 1979, 41.8 in 1980, 41.9 in 1981, 30.6 in 1982, 46.3 in 1983, 61.0 in 1984, 74.7 in 1985; inducted by Veterans Committee in 1997
- Rollie Fingers: 65.7 in 1991, 81.2 in 1992 (IN)
- Fergie Jenkins: 52.3 in 1989, 66.7 in 1990, 75.4 in 1991 (IN)
- Gaylord Perry: 68.0 in 1989, 72.1 in 1990, 77.2 in 1991 (IN)
- Jim Bunning: 38.1 in 1977, 47.8 in 1978, 34.0 in 1979, 46.0 in 1980, 40.9 in 1981, 33.3 in 1982, 36.9 in 1983, 49.9 in 1984, 54.2 in 1985, 65.6 in 1986, 70.0 in 1987, 74.2 in 1988, 63.3 in 1989, 57.9 in 1990, 63.7 in 1991; inducted by Veterans Committee in 1996
- Catfish Hunter: 43.7 in 1985, 68.9 in 1986, 76.3 in 1987 (IN)
- Billy Williams: 23.4 in 1982, 40.9 in 1983, 50.1 in 1984, 63.8 in 1985, 74.1 in 1986, 85.7 in 1987 (IN)
- Enos Slaughter: 33.1 in 1966, 42.1 n 1967, 45.6 in 1968, 37.6 in 1969, 44.3 in 1970, 45.8 in 1971, 37.6 in 1972, 38.2 in 1973, 39.7 in 1974, 48.9 in 1975, 50.8 in 1977, 68.9 in 1978, 68.8 in 1979; inducted by Veterans Committee in 1985
- Hoyt Wilheim: 41.1 in 1978, 38.9 in 1979, 54.3 in 1980, 59.4 in 1981, 56.9 in 1982, 65.0 in 1983, 72.0 in 1984, 83.8 in 1985 (IN)
- Don Drysdale: 21.0 in 1975, 29.4 in 1976, 51.4 in 1977, 57.8 in 1978, 53.9 in 1979, 61.8 in 1980, 60.6 in 1981, 56.1 in 1982, 64.7 in 1983, 78.4 in 1984 (IN)
- Harmon Killebrew: 59.6 in 1981, 59.3 in 1982, 71.9 in 1983, 83.1 in 1984 (IN)
- Luis Aparicio: 27.8 in 1979, 32.2 in 1980, 36.9 in 1981, 41.9 in 1982, 67.4 in 1983, 84.6 in 1984 (IN)
- Juan Marichal: 58.1 in 1981, 73.5 in 1982, 83.7 in 1983 (IN)
- Duke Snider: 17.0 in 1970, 24.7 in 1971, 21.2 in 1972, 26.6 in 1973, 30.4 in 1974, 35.6 in 1975, 41.0 in 1976, 55.4 in 1977, 67.0 in 1978, 71.3 in 1979, 86.5 in 1980 (IN)
- Eddie Mathews: 32.3 in 1974, 40.9 in 1975, 48.7 in 1976, 62.4 in 1977, 79.4 in 1978 (IN)
- Robin Roberts: 56.1 in 1973, 61.4 in 1974, 72.7 in 1975, 86.9 in 1976 (IN)
- Whitey Ford: 67.1 in 1973, 77.8 in 1974 (IN)
- Early Wynn: 27.9 in 1969, 46.7 in 1970, 66.8 in 1970, 66.7 in 1971, 76.0 in 1972 (IN)
- Yogi Berra: 67.2 in 1971, 85.6 in 1972 (IN)
- Lou Boudreau: 24.1 in 1956, 13.0 in 1960, 7.5 in 1962, 33.8 in 1964, 38.1 in 1966, 49.0 in 1967, 51.6 in 1968, 64.1 in 1969, 77.3 in 1970 (IN)
- Roy Campanella: 57.2 in 1964, 65.2 in 1966, 69.9 in 1967, 72.4 in 1968, 79.4 in 1969 (IN)
- Joe Medwick: 16.1 in 1956, 18.8 in 1958, 14.1 in 1960, 21.2 in 1962, 53.7 in 1964, 61.9 in 1966, 72.6 in 1967, 84.8 in 1968 (IN)
- Red Ruffing: 3.3 in 1948, 14.4 in 1949, 7.1 in 1950, 4.0 in 1951, 4.3 in 1952, 9.1 in 1953, 11.5 in 1954, 23.9 in 1955, 50.3 in 1956, 37.2 in 1958, 32.0 in 1960, 45.0 in 1962, 70.1 in 1964, 68.9 in 1966, 72.6 in 1967, inducted via BBWAA runoff election in 1967
- Luke Appling: 7.3 in 1956, 28.9 in 1958, 26.8 in 1960, 30.0 in 1962, 70.6 in 1964; inducted via BBWAA runoff election in 1964.
- Hank Greenberg: 43.8 in 1949, 38.1 in 1950, 29.6 in 1951, 32.1 in 1952, 30.3 in 1953, 38.5 in 1954, 62.5 in 1955, 85 in 1956 (IN)
- Dazzy Vance: 5.0 in 1937, 3.8 in 1938, 5.5 in 1939, 15.9 in 1942, 7.3 in 1945, 31.1 in 1947, 19.0 in 1948, 21.6 in 1949, 31.0 in 1950, 31.0 in 1951, 44.9 in 1952, 56.8 in 1953, 62.7 in 1954, 81.7 in 1955 (IN)
- Ted Lyons: 12.4 in 1948, 19.0 in 1949, 25.0 in 1950, 31.4 in 1951, 43.2 in 1952, 52.7 in 1953, 67.5 in 1954, 86.5 in 1955 (IN)
- Joe DiMaggio: 44.3 in 1953, 69.4 in 1954, 88.8 in 1955 (IN)
- Bill Dickey: 32.2 in 1948, 42.5 in 1949, 46.4 in 1950, 52.2 in 1951, 59.4 in 1952, 67.8 in 1953, 80.2 in 1954 (IN)
- Bill Terry: 4.0 in 1936, 2.7 in 1938, 5.98 in 1939, 15.5 in 1942, 13.0 in 1945, 28.6 in 1947, 43.0 in 1948, 52.9 in 1949, 62.5 in 1950, 65.5 in 1951, 66.2 in 1952, 72.3 in 1953, 77.4 in 1954 (IN)
- Rabbit Maranville: 12.4 in 1937, 27.9 in 1938, 29.9 in 1939, 28.3 in 1942, 20.6 in 1945, 56.5 in 1947, 31.4 in 1948, 37.9 in 1949, 39.3 in 1950, 48.7 in 1951, 56.8 in 1952, 62.1 in 1953, 82.9 in 1954 (IN)
- Dizzy Dean: 6.9 in 1945, 54.7 in 1947, 33.1 in 1948, 57.5 in 1949, 50.6 in 1950, 64.2 I 1951, 65.0 in 1952, 79.2 in 1953 (IN)
- Al Simmons: 1.8 in 1936, 3.7 in 1947, 49.6 in 1948, 58.2 in 1949, 53.6 in 1950, 51.3 in 1951, 60.3 in 1952, 75.4 in 1953 (IN)
- Harry Heilman: 5.0 in 1937, 5.3 in 1938, 2.9 in 1939, 1.7 in 1942, 2.0 in 1945, 40.4 in 1947, 33.1 in 1948, 38.6 in 1949, 51.8 in 1950, 67.7 in 1951, 86.8 in 1952 (IN)
- Paul Waner: 42.1 in 1948, 47.7 in 1949, 56.5 in 1950, 71.7 in 1951, 83.3 in 1952 (IN)
- Mel Ott: 61.4 in 1949, 68.5 in 1950, 87.2 in 1951 (IN)
- Jimmie Foxx: 9.3 in 1936, 6.2 in 1947, 41.3 in 1948, 55.6 in 1949, 61.3 in 1950, 79.2 in 1951 (IN)
- Charlie Gehringer: 4.0 in 1945, 65.2 in 1947, 43.0 in 1948, 66.7 in 1949; Inducted via BBWAA runoff election in 1949
- Pie Traynor: 7.1 in 1936, 1.1 in 1938, 3.6 in 1939, 19.3 in 1942, 32.8 in 1945, 73.9 in 1947, 76.9 in 1948 (IN)
- Rube Waddell: 14.6 in 1936, 33.3 in 1937, 56.5 in 1938, 65.3 in 1939, 65.3 in 1939, 58.4 in 1942, 62.3 in 1945, 33.1 in 1945 (last ballot); Inducted by old-timer’s committee in 1946
- Frank Chance: 2.2 in 1936, 24.4 in 1937, 50.8 in 1938, 57.7 in 1939, 58.4 in 1942, 72.5 in 1945; inducted by Old Timers Committee in 1946.
- Eddie Collins: 26.5 in 1936, 57.2 in 1937, 66.8 in 1938, 77.7 in 1939 (IN)
Randy Miller may be reached at rmiller@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @RandyJMiller. Find NJ.com on Facebook.
