The Twins’ young talent is elevating the outside perception of the organization. For example, on Wednesday, our Randball played with the idea that the Twins could lock up the top three spots in American League Rookie of the Year voting.
Byron Buxton wins the award, Jose Berrios is second and Byung Ho Park in third place.
Realistically, the Twins would be fortunate to get one of these young guns in the race for the league’s top rookie.
The excitement doesn’t stop with the rookies, though. The experts are relatively positive when it comes to the Twins’ 2016 season outlook in the much-improved American League Central.
Our Star Tribune baseball beat writers and columnists’ averaged predictions have the Twins finishing third, maybe even better, with somewhere around 84 wins and 78 losses.
Columnist Jim Souhan is the most optimistic. He predicts the Twins will finish second in the division with an 87-75 record. Here’s why:
For the first time in three seasons, the Twins didn’t make a big move in free agency. Their key moves occurred last summer, when they called up Sano, Buxton and Eddie Rosario and traded for Kevin Jepsen. Full seasons from them and Ervin Santana should allow the Twins to make another significant jump, and Jose Berrios’ arrival will give them better pitching depth than they have had in years.
Beat writer Phil Miller doesn’t have that much faith in the team he’ll watch nearly every day for at least the next six months. He has the Twins landing in fourth place in the AL Central with a losing record of 79-83.
You can read the rest of our experts’ predictions in Sunday’s season preview. Be sure to check that out, online and in print.
Now let’s look at the national opinion.
The baseball writers at CBS Sports unanimously picked Kansas City to win the AL Central. The Twins landed all over the place – last place, second, fourth. Three of the five votes placed the Twins’ at the bottom in fifth place, but Mike Axisa believes the Twins rally for a second-place finish behind the defending World Series champion Royals.
SI.com’s Tom Verducci didn’t guess where the Twin would finish, but said Berrios would be an important piece late in the season if the club is in postseason contention. SI writer Jeff Jaffe has the Twins ranked 21st in the MLB and finishing fifth in the AL Central with a 74-88 record.
ESPN.com also projects the Twins as the 21st-best, or 11th-worst team in the big leagues. These baseball minds predict the Twins will finish fifth in the AL Central with another losing record of 77-85. Here’s why:
Last year’s “breakout” season added up to just 83 wins — great for the Twins relative to what people expected, but still a mediocre tally. To build on last year’s second-place finish, the Twins are essentially banking for better health in their rotation and reasonable growth from some of their young blue-chip prospects. They’re going to need it, because they didn’t make many major additions from outside the organization, settling for a four-year, $12 million bet that the power of Korean slugger Byung Ho Park, which produced back-to-back 50-homer seasons for Nexen of the Korea Baseball Organization, will translate stateside.
Keith Law rates Buxton as the No. 2 overall prospect entering the season. And ESPN’s bold prediction for the Twins is that Miguel Sano will win the AL home run crown and Buxton wins Rookie of the Year. Young talent shout-out.
Finally, MLB.com columnist Anthony Castrovince raves about the Twins’ young stars Buxton, Park and Berrios as his “Rookies to Watch.” He also predicts the Twins’ season will hinge on Sano’s ability to avoid a sophomore slump after hitting 18 home runs in 80 games, last year. The real jab, though is “And will [Sano] cost the Twins as many runs in right [field] as he produces for them at the plate?”
My expert opinion – hey, I played college baseball and once tripled off MLB all-star Mark Trumbo when he was unloading 94-mph fastballs as a high school senior (Oh yeah, I also covered the Dodgers and Angels before relocating to Minnesota) – is that the Twins will finish in third place in the AL Central and make a push for the postseason.
Buxton will figure out how to be consistent at this level, Sano will show everyone big men can play the outfield, too, especially when he’s got so much speed around him, but the Twins’ pitching needs to improve. The success will be determined by the starting rotation.
Our senior digital writer Michael Rand of the aforementioned Randball is neutral, predicting the Twins finish with an 81-81 record. Here’s why:
Sometimes you have to stand still before you can move forward. This year’s Twins will be exciting, but there are still too many what-ifs (and too many other good teams) for them to contend. Yet. Wait until 2017 but enjoy 2016.
Oh yeah, Fan Graphs isn’t very high on the Twins, predicting a 78-84 finish. Are you in agreement with this mediocre outlook? Or will you be wearing your Buxton, Berrios and Park jerseys to Target Field each night believing for a youth revival this season? Cast your vote.
