For nearly 20 years now, the best part of my job has been those occasional times when I’ve been fortunate enough to sit next to a scout at a baseball game. I’m just a fan, and have read practically every book ever written about scouts, or by scouts. Leaving aside that practically nobody gives a damn, I wish there was room in the Hall of Fame for a few of history’s greatest scouts.
So when Bob Nightengale writes about the impending or potential demise of this great profession, I start worrying. The lede from Nightengale’s recent column:
Joe McIlvaine, the acclaimed two-time general manager who has been employed in professional baseball for 46 years as an executive or scout, suddenly can’t get a job.
Jeff Wren, 51, who has worked his entire adult life as a scout, is coming to the painful realization that he has no choice but to seek employment outside of baseball.
Baseball’s close-knit scouting fraternity has been besieged by wholesale layoffs this winter, with many pro scouts still unemployed one month before the start of spring training.
My guess is that something like those three paragraphs could have been written just about any winter in the last 20 or 30 years. Joe McIlvaine is 68, and good baseball men have always been put out to pasture. Eventually. Granted, some of them make it well past 68. Art Stewart and Gib Bodet and George Genovese … seems like almost every front office includes a grizzled old scout who’s been around since the 1950s.
Point being, there’s still a place in baseball for the experienced scout, and probably always will be. I have no idea what McIlvaine and Wren can offer at this point in their careers, but citing two examples just isn’t enough to support any sweeping generalizations. And while I wouldn’t discourage anyone from feeling sorry for McIlvaine, his longtime employment and lofty roles would suggest that he’ll be receiving generous pension payments for as long as he’s alive.
As for Jeff Wren, I’ve not had the pleasure of meeting him. We’re about the same age, and I’ll bet we’d have a great deal to talk about. Especially at this precise point in our respective careers. But it’s impossible to know, just looking at Nightengale’s column, why Wren’s currently looking for work. Is it really this?
Teams are relying more heavily on analytics and sabermetrics than at any time in baseball history, with teams treating veteran pro scouts as if they’re old eight-track car stereos, needless in today’s game. Even McIlvaine, the former GM of the Mets and Padres.
–snip–
… the industry has fallen in love with analytics and youth. The Milwaukee Brewers hired 30-year-old David Stearns to be their GM, replacing 63-year-old Doug Melvin. The Philadelphia Phillies promoted 23-year-old Lewie Pollis to be their analyst for baseball research and development. There have been 10 general managers hired or promoted to the position since August, and only two, Al Avila of Detroit and Jerry Dipoto of Seattle, are older than 45.
“I’ve got 23 years in the business,” Wren said, “and now clubs don’t want that experience? I look at teams now, and they’re hiring guys who aren’t really scouts. They’re sabermetric guys from the office, and they put them in the field like they’re scouts, just to give them a consensus of opinion.
What does that mean, though? “Hiring guys who aren’t scouts.” Nobody’s a scout until they get hired as a scout. At some point in his life, however long ago, Jeff Wren wasn’t a scout, either. Mathematically speaking, it’s impossible to create experienced scouts without creating, at some point, inexperienced scouts. And given the finite number of positions, at some point you’re going to replace an experienced scout with an inexperienced scout and hope for the best.
Actually, in theory there are an infinite number of positions. In practice, you’ve got a budget so you’re not going to pay a full-time scout to cover Alaska alone, and another to cover Delaware.
In fact, if the profession of scouting was in serious danger, it would be obvious: There would be fewer professional scouts.
Are there?
I looked at 15 franchises in 2012 and ’15. Without going into detail because that would take too long, I’ll just say I looked for full-time positions filled by scouts, from the top of the organization to the bottom, including international scouts. Different teams use different terms for the same positions, and some positions exist in one organization but not others. So counting is tricky. But I did my best, relying hevily upon Baseball America Directories.
And what I found isn’t fewer scouts, but more. Significantly more. By my count, there were 639 full-time scouts (or other personnel with scouting backgrounds or responsibilities) in 2012, and 724 in 2015. Which represents an increase from 43 per team to 48. In particular, the Red Sox, Cubs and Dodgers seem to have particularly expanded their scouting departments.
Is it coincidental that the Red Sox, Cubs and Dodgers are particularly associated with analytics and sabermetrics? I think probably not. Of course, those franchises all have a great deal of money to spend, and I think that’s the message here: Baseball teams aren’t interested in analytics and sabermetrics as ends in themselves; they’re looking for valuable information in whatever forms it’s available.
And a good scout is a font of valuable information. I’ve never heard anyone who works for a baseball team suggest otherwise. What’s more, rather than complain about what seems a small sea change, shouldn’t we find the opportunities thrilling? It seems clear that teams are actually hiring more scouts, not fewer. It seems there are opportunities for aspiring scouts with different backgrounds; can we complain about Amanda Hopkins becoming the first female, full-time, team-employed scout in something like 60 years? Can we complain about sites like Baseball Prospectus and 2080 Baseball serving as training grounds (or landing pads) for aspiring (or experienced) scouts?
Specifically, this can be a rough time to make a good living as a baseball scout. Or a baseball writer. Generally, there have never been more opportunities than right now, this exact minute. As always, change calls the tune we dance to. The trick, as always, is finding the right dance partner.
