Daily Fantasy Baseball 2015: Best MLB Position Player Picks for April 12 – Bleacher Report

Before filling out a daily fantasy baseball lineup on Sunday, take all the batting averages from MLB‘s opening week and throw them out the window.

OK, don’t actually do that. That will destroy your computer, tablet or cell phone. Still, don’t get bogged down in microscopic sample sizes when evaluating the day’s position players.

Four or five games of data tells us virtually nothing. Rather than being the fool who takes Will Middlebrooks just because he collected two hits on Saturday, locate the cheaper and lesser-used talent poised to exploit a great matchup to conclude the weekend.

As those new to the daily MLB party have discovered, picking profitable hitters is a highly volatile chore. Put in the research, however, and that unpredictability can benefit a well-informed player.

 

Stud: OF Carlos Gonzalez ($5,700) vs. Chicago Cubs 

Truth be told, rostering a superstar will prove difficult, as gamers are highly advised to pay top dollar for Max Scherzer or Chris Sale. As swell as it’d be to load up on every hitter spending Sunday at Coors Field, they all cost a premium.

Anyone from the Colorado Rockies or Chicago Cubs has the tools to excel. It’s the matter of paying north of $5,000 for one or more. Those shopping in this tier might as well go big or go home with Carlos Gonzalez, who crushes righties and crushes at Coors.

Kyle Hendricks posted a 2.46 ERA last season, but he also registered a middling 5.27 K/9 ratio and benefited from a 4.9 home-run/fly-ball percentage (HR/FB). 

An average hurler tends to hover a 10.0 HR/FB percentage, so he is about to suffer some serious regression at the unforgiving Coors Field. A healthy Gonzalez is frequently batting No. 2 early in the campaign, vaulting him back to superstar status for any home matchup.

 

Value: C Salvador Perez ($3,700) at Los Angeles Angels

Most managers usually use Sunday afternoon slates as an off day for the starting catcher. Not Ned Yost, who let Salvador Perez play 146 games behind the plate last season.

On Friday, Andy McCullough of The Kansas City Star confirmed Perez’s availability for Sunday’s postseason rematch with the Los Angeles Angels.

Salvador Perez will not get a day off until Tuesday, Ned Yost says. The Royals do not play on Tuesday.

— Andy McCullough (@McCulloughStar) April 10, 2015

For as much flak as Yost receives, he’s smart to stick with his 24-year-old catcher against left-hander C.J. Wilson. Over his four-year career, Perez hits .308/.349/.506 with a 132 weighted runs created plus (wRC+) off of southpaws.

Don’t get scared away by Wilson’s eight shutout innings on Opening Day. He hardly dominated with two punchouts, and the Seattle Mariners mustered a .636 OPS against lefties last year. This is the same Wilson looking to redeem 2014’s 4.51 ERA and 4.31 fielding independent pitching (FIP).

DraftKings is quick to adjust prices relative to matchups and splits, but Perez is oddly cheap at $3,700. Managers uncomfortable with punting catcher should take advantage of the value.

 

Bargain Bin: 1B/OF John Mayberry ($2,700) at Atlanta Braves

The New York Mets signed John Mayberry solely to hit lefties. It therefore shouldn’t surprise anyone to see manager Terry Collins starting him over Lucas Duda against them.

Duda crushed a team-high 30 homers last season, but 28 came against right-handed pitchers. Looking at the splits, it’s no contest which slugger deserves starts versus southpaws.

On Friday night, Collins not only sat Duda for Mayberry, but he slotted his new signee at the No. 3 hole behind David Wright. Mayberry responded with a long ball against Eric Stults, a soft-tosser who is certainly not Alex Wood.

ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin relayed the skipper’s inclination to use him in the same position as Duda:

Wood, a solid play in his own right, is not weak prey like Stults. He does, however, shop at The Leftorium, which means Mayberry will get the nod and likely hit third.

For the low cost of $2,700, the smart platoon play is worth a shot, especially for players taking the smart rout at pitching with Scherzer or Sale.

UPDATE: Mayberry will bat fifth, replacing Curtis Granderson rather than Duda in the lineup. He remains a valuable cheap play.

 

Sunday Stack: Washington Nationals (vs. RHP Sean O’Sullivan) 

The Washington Nationals have yet to hit a lick, scoring nine runs through their first five games of the season. Without Anthony Rendon and a rehabbing Jayson Werth, the World Series favorites hardly boast a potent lineup at the moment.

Their struggles, however, provide daring fantasy gamers a chance to zig with others purchasing highly priced Cubs and Rockies. For a tournament contestant looking for a lesser-utilized stack, consider Washington against Sean O’Sullivan.

To put it bluntly, Sullivan is not a good pitcher. Through 207.2 career innings in the rotation, the 27-year-old holds an atrocious 6.07 ERA, 4.51 K/9 rate and .878 opposing OPS. Righties and lefties alike shell him.

His 40.9 fly-ball percentage won’t play well in Citizens Bank Park, giving Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper and Ian Desmond enhanced chances of going deep.

Although hitless this season, Tyler Moore’s 38.8 fly-ball percentage makes him a homer threat if given the start. (UPDATE: Clint Robinson ($3,500) will start instead. Limited to first-base eligibility, the 30-year-old journeyman is less intriguing.) Power and speed threat Michael Taylor represents the perfect low-cost upside pick, especially when entrenched at the top of Washington’s order.

Honorable Mentions: Brewers vs. Casey Sadler; Cardinals vs. Raisel Iglesias; Rockies vs. Kyle Hendricks (at Coors); Cubs vs. Jordan Lyles (at Coors)

 

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Note: All advanced stats are courtesy of FanGraphs.