Daily Fantasy Baseball 2015: MLB DraftKings Pitcher Studs and Duds for July 12 … – Bleacher Report

There are plenty of pitching matchups to like in MLB‘s last day before the All-Star break.

Committed daily fantasy baseball players will finally receive rest from the everyday grind. Before taking the three-day hiatus to go outside, spend time with loved ones or focus on seasonal leagues, Sunday’s slate offers several usable pitching options.

Some are obvious and expensive. Others are affordable bargains. A shot in the dark could also pay massive dividends for those who prefer the road less traveled. 

Studs

Jake Arrieta ($10,000), Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox

Since allowing four runs and six walks on June 16, Jake Arrieta has surrendered four runs and walks apiece through his past four starts combined. Since joining the Chicago Cubs last season, he owns a 2.64 ERA and 281 strikeouts through 269.1 innings.

Despite brandishing a 2.72 fielding independent pitching (FIP), Arrieta somehow didn’t receive an All-Star invitation. He has a chance to make that omission look even stupider by dominating the Chicago White Sox, MLB’s worst offense in terms of weighted on-base average (wOBA) and weighted runs created plus (wRC+).

Playing at Wrigley Field, the White Sox will get even worse after sacrificing one of their bats, most likely lefty Adam LaRoche. Chances are Jose Quintana hasn’t taken much batting practice while pitching in the American League, so Arrieta is Sunday’s top choice.

Francisco Liriano ($9,700), Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis

The St. Louis Cardinals are rarely an offense to trifle with, but high-tier lefties provide an exception. St. Louis strikes out nearly a quarter of the time against southpaws, ranking No. 25 in weighted on-base average (wOBA).

Usually erratic and unreliable, Francisco Liriano has morphed into a trustworthy ace over the first half. Along with baseball’s seventh-best strikeout percentage (27.8) among qualified starters, he has registered his lowest walk percentage (8.2) since 2010.

His 2.99 ERA mirrors his 2.98 FIP, so treat Liriano as a veritable ace and quality building block.

Lance McCullers ($7,700), Houston Astros at Tampa Bay

Lance McCullers is still cheap with a 2.16 ERA, 2.71 FIP and 25.6 strikeout percentage. Along with a mid-90s fastball and a hard changeup, he also has unleashed one of baseball’s nastiest curveballs, as noted by BaseballSavant.com’s Darren Willman:

Pitchers who have lowest BA against their slider or curveball
Liriano .092
Keuchel .093
McCullers .100
Rodon .113
Betances .131
Felix .132

— Daren Willman (@darenw) July 11, 2015

The Tampa Bay Rays possess baseball’s fourth-worst slugging percentage and sixth-highest strikeout percentage against righties, so keep turning to the Houston Astros rookie.

Brett Anderson ($7,400), Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee

One of the perks of daily, players don’t have to worry about Brett Anderson staying on the mound all season. The healthy lefty is flourishing for the Los Angeles Dodgers, posting a 3.12 ERA and 67.9 ground-ball percentage.

While his 6.59 strikeouts per nine innings isn’t ideal for a DraftKings selection, he has collected 22 punchouts over his last 19 innings. More importantly, the Milwaukee Brewers foster MLB’s second-worst wOBA against lefties. 

They’ve heated up after a desolate start, but the southpaw mitigates the surging Adam Lind and Scooter Gennett.

Rubby De La Rosa ($7,200), Arizona Diamondbacks at N.Y. Mets

Last week‘s Rubby De La Rosa recommendation bombed spectacularly. He relinquished six runs, four during the first inning, to lose the De La Rosa battle to Colorado’s Jorge. 

Rather than admit defeat, let’s again note his 8.18 strikeouts and 2.28 walks per nine, 49.8 ground-ball percentage and 3.29 expected FIP (xFIP). Even after last weekend’s tussle, he holds a 2.78 ERA over his last five starts.

And oh yeah, he’ll get away from Chase Field to face the New York Mets. De La Rosa will succeed if he keeps the ball out of the stands, no certainty with Lucas Duda going deep on Friday and Saturday. (Then again, so did Ruben Tejada and Matt Harvey on Saturday, and chances are that won’t happen again.) Yet the Arizona Diamondbacks righty will probably garner a low usage rate for a high-strikeout pitcher given a great matchup.

Duds

Corey Kluber ($11,400), Cleveland Indians vs. Sonny Gray ($9,400), Oakland Athletics

Corey Kluber and Sonny Gray are both awesome pitchers, but they’re soft fades for Sunday. Not only will each ace have to outduel the other for the win, they’ll have to combat tough lineups. Neither is a terrible choice, but Arrieta, Liriano and Johnny Cueto are wiser selections. 

Yovani Gallardo ($7,100), Texas Rangers vs. San Diego

Fresh off a snapped 33.1 scoreless innings streak, Yovani Gallardo carries a 2.67 ERA into his clash with the San Diego Padres. He seems like a solid No. 2 play at $7,100, but the veteran has collected 17 strikeouts and 14 walks over his past five outings.

His .265 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) will eventually rise, causing his ERA to gain ground on his 3.94 xFIP. There are plenty of sneakier mid-tier plays around Gallardo‘s price point.

Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

DraftKings is hosting one-day MLB contests! Claim your free entry by clicking on the link and making a first-time deposit!