Daily Fantasy Baseball 2015: MLB DraftKings Strategy, Primer for August 16 – Bleacher Report

Although a good problem to have, daily fantasy baseball gamers must choose from a crowded field of aces taking the mound on Sunday.

Chris Sale, Zack Greinke, Matt Harvey, Madison Bumgarner, Carlos Carrasco and Carlos Martinez will all work to close out the weekend. While loaded at the top, the options quickly dwindle after the highest tier. It’s probably a good idea to spend big on two stud hurlers in cash contests.

But which two to choose, and how can DraftKings players form a winning offense? Keep in mind that a pitching-heavy approach prevents players from investing in Nelson Cruz, Carlos Gonzalez and/or Carlos Correa—top hitting choices all priced above $5,000.

Let’s break down Sunday’s optimal choices, focusing on elite pitching instead of offense.

SP Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox ($11,600) vs. Chicago Cubs 

While a tall price to pay for a single player, $11,600 is lower than usual for Sale. Two seven-run blunders bloated his ERA to 3.47, but don’t panic. Among qualified starters, his 2.51 fielding independent pitching (FIP) still ranks second behind Clayton Kershaw:

Of heaver importance for Sunday’s inner-state tilt with the Chicago Cubs, he has registered an MLB-best 11.55 strikeouts per nine innings backed by a 15.2 swinging-strike percentage. Baseball’s best strikeout artist against baseball’s most strikeout-prone lineup presents maximum point potential.

When Sale opposed the Cubs on July 11, he amassed 10 strikeouts through seven frames for the White Sox. That’s closer to the floor than ceiling when projecting his encore.

SP Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians ($10,800) at Minnesota Twins

Like a bad DirecTV commercial, there are two versions of Carrasco. The good Carrasco lives up to his stellar 2.90 FIP and 22.3 strikeouts-minus-walks percentage with a gem. The bad one surrenders five or six runs, a frustrating feat he has already endured five times this season.

Over his last three starts, the good Carrasco has shown up:

There’s no guarantee he stays around to conquer the Minnesota Twins. After all, the maddening ace last unraveled against the White Sox, so his floor is much lower than most high-level studs.  

Yet all DFS participants can do is examine the full picture and trust the process. His peripherals support his torrid stretch as the real norm, and the Twins have plummeted to No. 25 in weighted on-base average (wOBA) versus righties. He’s worth the elevated price.

C Derek Norris ($4,200) and 2B/3B Jedd Gyorko ($3,500), San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies

The Jedd Gyorko plug worked on Friday, but not for the expected reason. Picked for his enhanced splits against lefties, the second baseman instead took right-handed reliever Rafael Betancourt deep.

Still, everything said two days ago applies on Sunday, when he ends his Coors Field excursion against southpaw Chris Rusin. Trust his .813 OPS against lefties to capitalize on Coors one last time.

This time around, let’s toss Derek Norris into the mix. The catcher went yard against Yohan Flande on Friday night, upping his OPS versus lefties to .770 on the season.  

2B/3B Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers ($3,800) vs. Cincinnati Reds

Welcome back, Justin Turner. Everyone missed you, especially with a right-handed pitcher in town against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 30-year-old infielder hasn’t exhibited much rust from his two-week absence, collecting four hits in three games, including a homer on Saturday night.

Don’t read anything from the small sample size other than “He’s fine.” But let’s remember how awesome he was before getting sidelined. He’s hitting an impeccable .326/.386/.568 this season but apparently still doesn’t hold enough name value for DraftKings to immediately hike up his price.

As long as the Dodgers don’t give him a rest day, employ Turner at second or third for $3,800 against Anthony DeSclafani. 

OF Khris Davis, Milwaukee Brewers ($3,700) vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Back in the Milwaukee Brewers’ starting outfield with Carlos Gomez and Gerardo Parra jettisoned, Khris Davis has already crushed five homers in August. Against righties, he’s registering an .848 OPS with nine of his dozen dingers.

Meanwhile, Aaron Harang has relinquished 45 earned runs over his last 50 innings, producing one quality start in nine outings. On the hook for a .780 opposing OPS, the 37-year-old righty gives Davis a great opportunity to impact Sunday’s slate.

OF Ryan Raburn, Cleveland Indians ($2,400) at Minnesota Twins

The Cleveland Indians activated Ryan Raburn from the bereavement list just in time to face a lefty. The team announced the move on Saturday:

Roster moves:
+ Tomlin recalled
+ Raburn activated off Bereavement List
+ Walters, Armstrong optioned pic.twitter.com/J9geNK3lVw

— Cleveland Indians (@Indians) August 15, 2015

Even before stepping away from the club, the outfielder logged five August at-bats. Yet the .300/.375/.533 hitter against southpaws always deserved recognition as an incredible bargain, and now he gets Tommy Milone fresh off the disabled list. If Cleveland starts Raburn, so should you.

Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.