Daily Fantasy Baseball 2015: MLB DraftKings Studs and Duds for July 6 – Bleacher Report

Monday’s 11-game MLB slate presents some interesting quandaries for daily fantasy players.

Many of the evening’s top starting pitchers are paired up against one another, and the best ace on display happens to face baseball’s best lineup. After making those difficult decisions, some offensive stalwarts stand out as tremendous DraftKings plays.

Here’s a guide of pitchers and hitters to play and fade on Monday night. 

Pitching Studs

Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians ($10,200) vs. Houston

Carlos Carrasco and his 3.88 ERA cost $500 more than opponent Dallas Keuchel, who carries a 2.03 ERA into their bout. Yet the Cleveland Indians hurler, fresh off a near no-hitter against the Tampa Bay Rays, clobbers his adversary in strikeouts while possessing a lower fielding independent pitching (FIP) mark. 

Also working in his favor, the Houston Astros lead MLB in strikeout percentage while Cleveland places inside the bottom 10. Carrasco‘s latest gem inflated his price, but pay up anyway.

James Shields, San Diego Padres ($8,600) at Pittsburgh

James Shields’ strikeout rates gradually tumbled before joining the San Diego Padres. Now he’s boasting a 10.61 strikeouts-per-nine-innings rate with MLB’s fourth-best swinging-strike percentage among qualified starters.

Making his bizarre season even stranger, he holds his worst ERA (4.14) since 2010 with 17 home runs allowed. Although he has struggled mightily outside of Petco Park, the Pittsburgh Pirates have hit 63 home runs, baseball’s fifth-lowest tally. As long as he avoids any big blunders, Shields will amass points through punchouts at an affordable $8,600.

Chris Heston, San Francisco Giants ($6,300) vs. N.Y. Mets

Unless Maester Qyburn can bring David Wright and Travis d’Arnaud back to life, the New York Mets remain an easy target for opposing pitchers. Despite sporting a 3.29 FIP and throwing a no-hitter against them last month, Chris Heston comes at an incredibly affordable $6,300 due to a recent strikeout dip.

Since dominating the Mets, the 27-year-old righty has registered 14 strikeouts through 23.2 innings. Alarming, but how can anyone pass up this matchup at such a basement cost?

Pitching Dud

Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox ($12,700) vs. Toronto

This is the only possible matchup where Chris Sale gets placed here. The Toronto Blue Jays devour lefties, but the stellar southpaw still costs a substantial $12,700 due to his streak of eight straight double-digit strikeout outings.

Sale is arguably the best pitcher in baseball right now, but this is the beauty (and agony) of daily fantasy. Shy away from him on Monday, but run back when he faces the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field this weekend.

Hitting Studs

Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia (RHP Sean O’Sullivan)

Although too obvious to maximize potential tournament rewards, the Los Angeles Dodgers present a mouth-watering stacking opportunity. Baseball’s most productive lineup against righties faces Sean O’Sullivan, who owns a 5.76 ERA and .913 opposing OPS this year.

Away from Citizens Bank Park, the Philadelphia Phillies hurler has posted a 7.67 ERA. Lefties have particularly torched him, hitting .360/.424/.730 with 10 homers. That makes these four lefties (and one righty killer) particularly appetizing options:

Yasiel Puig doesn’t come cheap at $4,300, but he’s also worth a roll of the dice.

2B Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins ($4,500) vs. Baltimore

A career .283/.349/.514 hitter against lefties, Brian Dozier still costs less than Jose Altuve and Jason Kipnis, who are both facing aces of their less preferred handedness. Don’t get scared off by Wei-Yin Chen’s 2.96 ERA. He’s also brandishing a less impressive 4.29 FIP, and righties have accounted for a dozen of his 15 homers relinquished. 

3B Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles ($3,900) at Minnesota

Manny Machado for $3,900? He must be facing Max Scherzer, Felix Hernandez or…nope, he’s going up against Phil Hughes, an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a 4.53 FIP. In that case, why not?

SS Brandon Crawford, San Francisco Giants ($3,600) vs. N.Y. Mets

Nobody expected Brandon Crawford to perform like a superstar shortstop all season long. The fact that he’s hitting .211 (23-for-109) since June 1 should surprise nobody, but that doesn’t take away his .977 OPS against lefties.

While his younger colleagues dazzle, Jon Niese has recorded a 3.90 ERA and career-low 6.30 K/9 this year. Righties are hitting .282/.355/.455 against him, so use Crawford’s slump as a buying opportunity. 

Those using Heston as their No. 2 starter should also have enough money left over for Buster Posey ($4,500), a career .327/.387/.566 hitter against southpaws. 

OF Marlon Byrd, Cincinnati Reds ($3,800) at Washington

Since returning from the disabled list on June 19, Byrd is hitting .333 (20-for-60) with four homers. Since returning from the disabled list on June 19, Doug Fister has surrendered 20 hits and nine runs through 18.1 innings. The all-too-hittable Fister is prime picking for the resurgent Byrd, one of baseball’s most unheralded deep threats since 2013. 

Hitting Duds

1B Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants ($4,100) vs. N.Y. Mets

DraftKings didn’t budge much on Brandon Belt’s price tag despite his .133/.235/.178 slash line against lefties. He has ended 20 of those 51 plate appearances in strikeouts but still chimes in at $4,100.

While his career splits aren’t as desolate, he has submitted a .322 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against lefties with drained power. For $100 fewer, gamers who don’t pay for Adrian Gonzalez can gamble on Chris Davis taking Hughes deep. 

OF Avisail Garcia, Chicago White Sox ($4,200) vs. Toronto

Avisail Garcia’s .346 average against lefties is fueled by a .457 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). He has drawn just two walks while striking out 16 times against them, and his season .719 OPS isn’t the mark of a top play, not even against Mark Buehrle.

Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.

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