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5 Things to Watch:
1. Here are the highest over/unders for Friday, provided by OddsShark…
2. While we finally get a game at Coors Field, but they play at 4:10pm (EST). That means, if you want some Rockies in your lineup, you need to play an “all day” or “early” DFS contest.
3. I can’t talk about the Rockies without mentioning Trevor Story. All eyes will be on the Colorado game this afternoon to see if Story can homer in his first four career games. Unfortunately, the DFS sites have already adjusted his price tag ($4,200 DK / $4,000 FD).
4. Weather is reeking havoc on the start of the baseball season. Tonight, rain is projected to fall during the Pirates/Reds game in Cincinnati. Keep that in mind when you are choosing a DFS starting pitcher.
5. For the BvP-lovers of the world, Evan Longoria is 16-49 (.327) with 10 extra-base hits and six home runs against Chris Tillman. How’s that for sample-size?
Yesterday’s recap:
John Halpin provided plenty of great advice on Thursday. Anthony Rizzo hit a home run, and a triple, as the must-start. Jean Segura, listed under the shortstop spot, added two home runs, as well.
Must-Start of the day: Carlos Gonzalez, COL
He had a whopping .418 ISO at home against righties last year.
Deal of the day: Preston Tucker, HOU
Tucker is off to a hot start (one home run and two doubles), but his time could be short-lived as the Astros are playing in an NL park and Evan Gattis is returning soon. If Tucker gets the start on Friday, he’s a great addition at a cheap price. Last year, he had a .347 wOBA and .238 ISO against righties.
Avoid of the day: Adam Jones, BAL
He sat out Thursday’s game with a possible oblique injury. For Friday, Jones’ Orioles face Chris Archer. In his career, Jones is 2-22 (.091) with seven strikeouts against Archer.
Stack of the day: Colorado Rockies
It’s our first series of the year at Coors Field and that game provides the highest over/under of the Friday slate (10.5 total runs). Since the Padres have yet to score, let’s load up on Rockies: Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Gerardo Parra, and Nick Hundley.
Starting pitchers:
Jacob deGrom, NYM – It’s a shame that this game is early, because deGrom is the best pitcher on the slate. His Mets are the biggest favorite (-230) and the PHI/NYM game has the lowest over/under (6.5 total runs).
Chris Archer, TB – Last year, Archer had the fourth-best strikeout rate (10.7 K/9).
Francisco Liriano, PIT – If it wasn’t for the weather, Liriano would be the second-best option of the day. He produced a 9.88 K/9 (seventh-best) in 2015 and Pittsburgh is one of the strongest favorites on the board (-163).
Yordano Ventura, KC – In 2015, Ventura pitched against the Twins twice. He notched 19 strikeouts in those 12.1 innings of work. Tonight, the Royals are also the favorite to win (-152).
Catchers:
Nick Hundley, COL – In Coors Field last year, he produced a .230 ISO against RHP.
David Ross/Miguel Montero, CHC – With a lefty on the hill, Ross will probably start. If so, punt with him and spend on other bats. If Montero starts, in 56 plate appearances last year, he had a .342 wOBA and .213 ISO in 2015.
First basemen:
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI – Goldy had a .408 wOBA and .247 ISO in 2015.
John Jaso, PIT – Leadoff hitters with a cheap price tag always catch my eye. Last year, Jaso had a .376 wOBA and .180 ISO against righties.
Wil Myers, SD – He’s has a much better ISO against righties (.190 ISO vs. RHP, .109 ISO vs. LHP).
Second basemen:
Ben Zobrist, CHC – The Cubs are the second-best stack of the slate. Zobrist had a .398 wOBA and .188 ISO against righties in 2015.
Robinson Cano, SEA – He’s hit four home runs in the first three games. Even if Cano only connects on one swing, it could be worth the investment.
Third basemen:
Nolan Arenado, COL – Against righties, in 2015, .388 wOBA and .318 ISO for Arenado.
Kris Bryant, CHC – Last year, versus RHP, .348 wOBA and .206 ISO.
Evan Longoria, TB – (See “5 Things”)
Shortstops:
Carlos Correa, HOU – The Astros are the third-best stack. Correa had a .359 wOBA and .209 ISO against righties last year.
Trevor Story, COL – He’s going for four-straight games with a home run to start his career.
Outfielders:
Carlos Gonzalez, COL – “Must-Start of the day.”
Nelson Cruz, SEA – Lefty-masher. Cruz had a .459 wOBA and .315 ISO against southpaws in 2015.
David Peralta, ARI – He’s off to a great start and had a .397 wOBA (.228 ISO) against righties in 2015.
Franklin Gutierrez, SEA – Last year, against lefties, .411 wOBA and .298 ISO.
Colby Rasmus, HOU – In 2015, Rasmus had a .329 wOBA and .243 ISO against righties.
Preston Tucker, HOU – Last year, he had a .347 wOBA and .238 ISO against righties.
