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5 Things to Watch:
1. First things first, here are the three highest over/unders for Sunday, provided by OddsShark…
Editor’s note: Odds are not yet released for ARI/SF
2. It’s a small, eight-game slate today. The TOR/BOS game has the highest projected run total (9.5 total runs), but it starts at 11:05am EST. So, we’ll be treating this like a seven-game schedule in today’s post.
3. Scattered light rain is predicted for the MIL/MIN game. It shouldn’t be a concern, but because of the light schedule and high run projected run total for this game, keep your eyes on this one.
4. On Sunday, Bryce Harper homered in his fourth-straight game. Tonight, his Nats face Jose Fernandez and the Marlins. His $6,000 price tag on FanDuel is way too much, but I would allow using him on DraftKings ($4,200).
5. Time for the BvP standout: Joey Votto is 7-11 (.636) with two home runs against Jordan Lyles.
Yesterday’s recap:
Paul Goldschmidt might’ve taken the day off on Sunday, but D.J. Foster didn’t. He gave you Jon Lester and Patrick Corbin. Both had great outings. He also suggested Jose Altuve, George Springer, and Bryce Harper. All of whom hit homers.
Must-Start of the day: Todd Frazier, CWS
Against southpaws, Frazier had a .346 ISO in 2015.
Deal of the day: Chris Carter, MIL
Last year, Carter had a .237 ISO against righties.
Avoid of the day: Jason Heyward, CHC
In his career, Heyward is 1-14 (.071) with three strikeouts against Mike Leake.
Stack of the day: Cincinnati Reds
It’s the only late game with an over/under of nine total runs. The Reds are the slight favorite.
Starting pitchers:
Noah Syndergaard, NYM – It’s a tough decision between Syndergaard and Fernandez, but I’ll take the arm that has been more consistent this season. Thor has struck out at least nine batters in each of his first two starts. The Phillies are also more prone to strikeouts (seventh-most this season).
Jose Fernandez, MIA – If you want to go the somewhat cheaper route, Fernandez is still a solid play. When he pitches at Marlins Park, Fernandez is 17-1 with a 1.61 ERA in 27 career games.
Jerad Eickhoff, PHI – For a cheaper arm on the two-pitcher sites, Eickhoff is the play. In his last start, he struck out nine Padres and didn’t allow an earned run through seven innings of work. His Phillies are the underdog, but I’ve seen much larger Vegas odds when an elite arm, like Syndergaard, is on the hill.
Catchers:
Geovany Soto, LAA – Last year, in 57 ABs, Soto had a .228 ISO against lefties.
Devin Mesoraco, CIN – Actually, any Reds catcher is just a play to add to my Reds stack of the day.
First basemen:
Joey Votto, CIN – (See “5 Things”)
Albert Pujols, LAA – In 2015, Pujols produced a .252 ISO against left-handed pitchers.
Ben Paulsen, COL – He had a .203 ISO against righties last season.
Chris Carter, MIL – “Deal of the day.”
Second basemen:
Brian Dozier, MIN – Last season, he had a .208 ISO against right-handed pitchers.
Brett Lawrie, CWS – Against lefties, Lawrie had a .191 ISO last year.
Third basemen:
Nolan Arenado, COL – In the past week, Arenado’s hit four home runs.
Todd Frazier, CWS – “Must-start of the day.”
Trevor Plouffe, MIN – Last year, he had a .192 ISO against righties.
Shortstops:
Zack Cozart, CIN – Great for a Reds stack. He had a .189 ISO last season against RHP. Cozart is also 6-11 (.545) in his career against Jordan Lyles.
Eduardo Nunez, MIN – In the past week, Nunez is 6-13 (.462) with two extra-base hits and one RBI.
Outfielders:
Bryce Harper, WAS – He’s homered in four-consecutive games. Price tag is too steep on FanDuel, but decent on DraftKings.
Carlos Gonzalez, COL – In the last seven days, CarGo is batting .360 with a home run and five RBI.
Miguel Sano, MIN – Last year, he had a .273 ISO against righties. On some DFS sites, Sano is eligible at third base, too.
Jay Bruce, CIN – In 2015, Bruce had a .272 ISO against righties.
Mike Trout, LAA – He had a .285 ISO against lefties last season.
Michael Conforto, NYM – It’s a small sample-size for both young players, but Conforto is 5-10 (.500) with three extra-base hits against Eickhoff.
