For those who are unfamiliar with my thought process, I aim to add as many home run hitters as possible to my daily fantasy baseball lineups. One way of doing that is to look at a player’s isolated power numbers (ISO). The ISO statistic removes singles and provides a larger weight for each extra-base hit.
I also use the weighted on-base average (wOBA) metric. This stat takes every positive outcome into consideration.
Last year, the league average was a .150 ISO and a .313 wOBA. So, when you see me list a player’s ISO or wOBA, you know why I do it.
5 Things to Watch:
1. Here are the three highest over/unders for Monday, provided by OddsShark…
2. In both games with the highest O/U (10 projected runs), there is a designated “strong team.” The Nationals and Rangers are the odds on favorite to win. So, adding bats from those clubs would be wise.
3. Drew Smyly and the Rays are the biggest favorites of the night (-170). Smyly has allowed two earned runs or less in four straight starts. He has also tallied at least six strikeouts in two of the last three outings.
4. Boston and Cleveland reconvene for a one-game series as a make-up from a previewous rainout. They play at 1:10pm (EST), so I will not include the BOS/CLE players in the player pool.
5. For the BvP readers: Mike Trout is 28-75 (.373) with six homers against Felix Hernandez…Ian Kinsler is 7-12 (.583) with five extra-base hits against Ian Kennedy…Also, Miguel Cabrera is 5-12 (.417) with three extra-base hits against Kennedy.
Yesterday’s recap:
Please tell me you listened to John Halpin’s suggestions this weekend. He killed it! To provide examples, his must-start for Sunday was Ryan Braun (two homers) and his top pitching selection was Rick Porcello, who continues to dominate at home (7 IP, 4 Ks). Seriously, Porcello is 12-0 with a 2.96 ERA at Fenway this season.
Must-Start of the day: Adrian Beltre, TEX
He’s the perfect combination of someone who succeeds against lefties (.231 ISO and .405 wOBA) and is having a great week (14-for-27 with two home runs). Add the over/under factor and you have the ultimate must-start for Monday.
Deal of the day: David Phelps, MIA
While most of his action has been in relief, Phelps still has allowed only one earned run in the past 14.1 innings of work. His $4,000 price tag on DraftKings is great if you plan on using Max Scherzer, too.
Avoid of the day: Kole Calhoun, LAA
He is 5-41 (.122) with 11 strikeouts against Felix Hernandez.
Stack of the day: Washington Nationals
Because the SP options aren’t ridiculously expensive, you can load up on Coors Field bats. Also, even though Scherzer has a bad history in Colorado starts, I’m not choosing Rockies’ hitters. You can build a lineup with Jayson Werth, Trea Turner, Wilson Ramos, and possibly Bryce Harper and still be able to afford the pitchers you want for Monday.
Starting pitchers:
Drew Smyly, TB – (See “5 Things”)
Robbie Ray, ARI – He just faced the Mets in his last start: 7 IP, 0 ER, and 4 Ks. Ray has also struck out at least nine batters in three of his last four outings.
David Phelps, MIA – “Deal of the day.”
Catchers:
Jonathan Lucroy, TEX – He has a .237 ISO against lefties in 2016.
Wilson Ramos, WAS – He has a .309 ISO against lefties this season.
Gary Sanchez, NYY – He has a .310 ISO against righties this year.
First basemen:
Edwin Encarnacion, TOR – He has a .283 ISO against righties this year and has a .455 AVG in the past week.
Miguel Cabrera, DET – He has a .260 ISO and a .400 wOBA against righties this season.
Mitch Moreland, TEX – He has a .240 ISO against lefties this year.
Second basemen:
Devon Travis, TOR – He has a .224 ISO against righties this year.
Ian Kinsler, DET – (See “5 Things”)
Third basemen:
Adrian Beltre, TEX – “Must-start of the day.”
Jake Lamb, ARI – He has a .317 ISO and a .408 wOBA against righties this season.
Danny Valencia, OAK – He has a .258 ISO against southpaws this year.
Shortstops:
Trea Turner, WAS – The Nats leadoff hitter is 9-for-27 (.375 AVG) with four extra-base hits in the past week.
Troy Tulowitzki, TOR – He has a .219 ISO against righties this season.
Marcus Semien, OAK – He has .305 ISO against lefties this year.
Didi Gregorius, NYY – He has a .185 ISO against righties in 2016.
Outfielders:
Mike Trout, LAA – (See “5 Things”)
Shin-Soo Choo, TEX – He has a .310 ISO and a .460 wOBA against lefties this season.
Carlos Beltran, TEX – He has a .276 ISO and a .425 wOBA against southpaws this season.
Jayson Werth, WAS – He has a .270 ISO and a .439 wOBA agains lefties this year.
J.D. Martinez, DET – He has a .230 ISO against righties in 2016.
Justin Upton, DET – I know he is 2-for-26 (.077) in the past seven days, but Upton is only $2,300 on DK. C’mon, man.
Jake Smolinski, OAK – He has a .292 ISO and a .446 wOBA against lefties in 2016.
Bryce Harper, WAS – He has a .198 ISO against lefties this year and is playing at Coors Field tonight.
