For those who are unfamiliar with my thought process, I aim to add as many home run hitters as possible to my daily fantasy baseball lineups. One way of doing that is to look at a player’s isolated power numbers (ISO). The ISO statistic removes singles and provides a larger weight for each extra-base hit.
I also use the weighted on-base average (wOBA) metric. This stat takes every positive outcome into consideration.
Last year, the league average was a .150 ISO and a .313 wOBA. So, when you see me list a player’s ISO or wOBA, you know why I do it.
5 Things to Watch:
1. Here are the three highest over/unders for Monday, provided by OddsShark…
2. Jake Arrieta runs away as the strongest favorite of the night at -260 against the Pirates. Rick Porcello for Boston (-200) and Tanner Roark (-200) of the Nats are also large favorites to earn the win on Monday night. Matt Boyd’s odds are up there, too, but his over/under is around 20.
3. Speaking of Porcello, he is phenomenal at home. This season, he is 12-0 with a 2.96 ERA at Fenway Park. Unreal. Porcello has also faced the Rays four times in 2016 (3-0 with a 2.60 ERA).
4. There is a little rain in the forecast for NYY/KC and LAD/COL. Hopefully, all is clear in Colorado by first pitch.
5. For the BvP readers: Mike Trout is 7-for-17 (.412) against Dan Straily…J.D. Martinez is 9-for-21 (.429) with four extra-base hits against James Shields…Also, Miguel Cabrera is 24-for-63 (.381) with 13 extra-base hits against Shields.
Yesterday’s recap:
The Toronto Blue Jays were D.J. Foster’s stack and they delivered. They scored nine runs and I hope you had the recommended play of Josh Donaldson: 3 HR, 4 RBI.
Must-Start of the day: Miguel Cabrera, DET
He has quite the sample size against Shields (see “5 Things”) and leads Detroit with a .256 ISO against right-handed pitchers this season.
Deal of the day: Andrew Toles, LAD
Finding a deal in a Coors Field game is tough. However, Toles is only $3,000 on both FD and DK. Toles is 7-for-15 (.467) with four extra-base hits in the past week.
Avoid of the day: Ian Desmond, TEX
He is 1-for-14 (.071) with five strikeouts against Hisashi Iwakuma.
Stack of the day: Detroit Tigers
Any offense facing James Shields will make my stack suggestion. He’s allowed at least six earned runs in four of the past starts. On the road, Shields is 1-6 with a 7.22 ERA. Also, Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez have great BvP matchups against Shields. I would add Cameron Maybin, Ian Kinsler and Victor Martinez, too.
Starting pitchers:
Rick Porcello, BOS – (See “5 Things”)
Jose Fernandez, MIA – He’s allowed two earned runs or less in two of the past three starts and has struck out at least six batters in 10 consecutive outings.
Yu Darvish, TEX – He’s struck out at least five batters in 10 straight starts. Also, at home, Darvish is 4-0 with a 2.80 ERA in 2016.
Catchers:
Victor Martinez, DET – He has a .500 AVG in the past week and is part of the “Stack of the day.”
Yasmani Grandal, LAD – He has a .272 ISO against righties in 2016.
First basemen:
Miguel Cabrera, DET – “Must-start of the day.”
Adrian Gonzalez, LAD – He has a .370 wOBA against righties and has tallied four home runs in the past seven days.
Edwin Encarnacion, TOR – He has a .286 ISO against lefties this season.
Second basemen:
Ian Kinsler, DET – “Stack of the day.”
Dustin Pedroia, BOS – He has a .367 wOBA against righties and a .556 AVG in the past week
Daniel Murphy, WAS – He has a .281 ISO against righties this year.
Anthony Rendon, WAS – He has a .192 ISO against righties this season.
Third basemen:
Kris Bryant, CHC – He has a .329 ISO against lefties this season.
Josh Donaldson, TOR – He has a .255 ISO against lefties and went yard three times yesterday.
Justin Turner, LAD – He has a .262 ISO against right-handed pitchers this year.
Shortstops:
Corey Seager, LAD – He has a .230 ISO against righties and is batting .448 in the past week.
Addison Russell, CHC – He has a .242 ISO against southpaws this season.
Trea Turner, WAS – He has a .234 ISO against righties this year and a .438 AVG in the last seven days.
Outfielders:
Bryce Harper, WAS – He has a .218 ISO against righties this year.
Jackie Bradley Jr., BOS – He has a .269 ISO against righties in 2016.
Mookie Betts, BOS – He has a .232 ISO against righties this season.
Dexter Fowler, CHC – He has a .381 wOBA against lefties this season.
Andrew Toles, LAD – “Deal of the day.”
J.D. Martinez, DET – (See “5 Things”)
Cameron Maybin, DET – He has a .353 wOBA against righties this year.
