For those who are unfamiliar with my thought process, I aim to add as many home run hitters as possible to my daily fantasy baseball lineups. One way of doing that is to look at a player’s isolated power numbers (ISO). The ISO statistic removes singles and provides a larger weight for each extra-base hit.
I also use the weighted on-base average (wOBA) metric. This stat takes every positive outcome into consideration.
Last year, the league average was a .150 ISO and a .313 wOBA. So, when you see me list a player’s ISO or wOBA, you know why I emphasize hitters with numbers much higher than the 2015 averages.
5 Things to Watch:
1. Here are the four highest over/unders for Monday, provided by OddsShark…
2. The biggest favorite for Monday is Jose Fernandez and the Marlins (-200) as they take on the Phillies. Surprisingly, in his three career starts at Citizens Bank Park, Fernandez is 1-1 with a 4.24 ERA. However, on a slate with limited pitching options, I wouldn’t let those past outings impact Fernandez’s stock for Monday.
3. For the BvP readers: Mark Trumbo is 10-19 (.526) with three homers against Ivan Nova. … Danny Valencia is 7-13 (.538) with four extra-base hits against Dallas Keuchel. … Also, Alex Rodriguez is 5-11 (.455) with two home runs against Kevin Gausman.
4. There are a lot of lefties on the hill tonight. Out of the 22 starters, nine of them (41 percent) are lefties. Always take into account the splits of a batter against left-handed and right-handed starters, because they are likely to see that player for at least two ABs.
5. Rain is in the forecast for BAL/NYY and SD/STL tonight. Keep your eyes on those before lineups lock.
Must-start of the day: Cameron Maybin, DET
He has a .324 wOBA against righties this year. Also, Maybin is 5-7 against Nolasco in his career. That sample size is very small, but a .714 AVG is still impressive.
Deal of the day: Kris Bryant, CHC
Steven Matz is good, but he’s not great. FanDuel has knocked Bryant’s price down to $3,700. On June 30, Bryant took Matz deep in the first inning. Bryant also has a .336 ISO and .426 wOBA against lefties this season.
Avoid of the day: Josh Reddick, OAK
He is 1-15 (.067) with four strikeouts against Dallas Keuchel.
Stack of the day: Detroit Tigers
When Brandon Guyer is $5,200 on DraftKings, you know it’ll be a difficult day to stack any team in Coors Field. So, let’s look elsewhere. The Tigers are favored against Minnesota tonight, and their big bats are relatively cheap. Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez and Cameron Maybin are all great additions if they all bat toward the top of the order. Justin Upton is very cheap on FanDuel ($2,300). Also, in his two outings against the Tigers this year, Ricky Nolasco is 0-1 with a 5.91 ERA (seven earned runs in 10.2 innings).
Starting pitchers:
Jose Fernandez, MIA — See “5 Things”.
Chris Sale, CWS — He has struck out at least seven batters in five of the past six starts. However, Seattle has two notorious lefty-killers on the roster: Robinson Cano (.316 AVG against Sale) and Nelson Cruz (.438 AVG with two homers against Sale). On the bright side, those are the only two in the lineup who have over a batting average over .125 against Sale. The White Sox ace is also 7-1 with a 2.33 ERA on the road this season.
Mike Leake, STL — He tallied 10 strikeouts in his last outing, though it was a start against the Brewers.
Nick Tropeano, LAA — He’s struck out at least five batters in three of the past four games and has allowed two earned runs or less in five of the last six outings. On May 23, this was Tropeano’s stat line against the Rangers: 6.2 IP, 0 ER, and 6 Ks.
Catchers:
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, DET — He has a .268 ISO against righties this season.
Victor Martinez, DET — He has a .202 ISO against righties in 2016.
Nick Hundley, COL — He has a .279 ISO against lefties this year.
First basemen:
Miguel Cabrera, DET — He has a .247 ISO against righties in 2016.
Joey Votto, CIN — He has a .205 ISO and a .388 wOBA against righties this year.
Second basemen:
Logan Forsythe, TB — He has a .293 ISO and a .439 wOBA against lefties this season.
DJ LeMahieu, COL — He has a .205 ISO and a .393 wOBA against lefties this season.
Brian Dozier, MIN — He has a .366 ISO and a .452 wOBA against lefties this year.
Jason Kipnis, CLE — He has a .244 ISO and a .380 wOBA against righties in 2016.
Third basemen:
Nolan Arenado, COL — He has a .264 ISO and a .407 wOBA against left-handed pitchers this season.
Kris Bryant, CHC — “Deal of the day.”
Nick Castellanos, DET — He has a .233 ISO against righties in 2016.
Evan Longoria, TB — He has a .200 ISO against lefties this year.
Shortstops:
Trevor Story, COL — He has a .275 ISO against southpaws this season.
Eduardo Nunez, MIN — He has a .250 ISO against lefties this year.
Outfielders:
Mark Trumbo, BAL — See “5 Things.”
Adam Duvall, CIN — He has a .306 ISO against righties this season.
Cameron Maybin, DET — “Must-start of the day.”
Stephen Piscotty, STL — He has a .265 ISO and a .448 wOBA against lefties this year.
Brandon Guyer, TB — He has a .281 ISO and a .482 wOBA against southpaws this season.
Miguel Sano, MIN — He has a .343 ISO and a .441 wOBA against lefties this season.
Ryan Raburn, COL — He has a .266 ISO against lefties in 2016.
Tommy Pham, STL — He has a .250 ISO against lefties this year.
