For those who are unfamiliar with my thought process, I aim to add as many home run hitters as possible to my daily fantasy baseball lineups. One way of doing that is to look at a player’s isolated power numbers (ISO). The ISO statistic removes singles and provides a larger weight for each extra-base hit.
I also use the weighted on-base average (wOBA) metric. This stat takes every positive outcome into consideration.
Last year, the league average was a .150 ISO and a .313 wOBA. So, when you see me list a player’s ISO or wOBA, you know why I emphasize hitters with numbers much higher than the 2015 averages.
5 Things to Watch:
1. Here are the four highest over/unders for Friday, provided by OddsShark…
2. As you’ve seen above, the Braves and Rockies have a high projected run total. However, these teams just squared off in Atlanta to a 1-0 final score (Braves won). I know the Colorado atmosphere has a tremendous impact on the score, but Julio Teheran (the underdog) has a successful past against the Rockies’ best hitters: Carlos Gonzalez (0-8), DJ LeMahieu (2-13), and Nolan Arenado (0-8).
3. For the BvP enthusiasts: Starlin Castro is 11-26 (.423) against Madison Bumgarner…Jose Altuve is 7-17 (.412) against Matt Shoemaker…Also, Chase Headley is 10-33 (.303) with three home runs against Bumgarner.
4. Interleague play continues for the Giants as they travel from Boston to the Bronx.
5. Not expecting any PPDs tonight!
Yesterday’s recap:
John Halpin provided some great pitching options on Thursday night. Stephen Strasburg struck out 10 Dodgers, Adam Wainwright punched out eight Padres, and Chad Bettis only allowed one earned run in Colorado.
Must-Start of the day: Gerrit Cole, PIT
When I begin to assemble these posts, I do the research on the matchups before I look at the DFS pricing. A majority of the time, my favorite pitcher on the slate is one of the most expensive options. However, I was shocked today when I saw Cole’s price on both DraftKings ($7,400) and FanDuel ($8,500). His Pirates are the second-highest favorite of the day, behind another pitcher I like today (more on him later). In the past week, the Phillies have struck out 64 times (third-most). Also, in his short career, Cole is 3-1 with a 2.31 ERA in four starts against Philadelphia.
Deal(s) of the day: Jackie Bradley Jr., BOS and Jay Bruce, CIN
I would expect this home run hitting options to cost a little more tonight, but their both cheap on specific DFS sites. Bradley is $3,400 on FD (he has a .298 ISO against righties in 2016) and Bruce is $4,400 on DK (he has a .291 ISO against righties this season).
Avoid of the day: Kendrys Morales, KC
In his career, Morales is 3-25 (.120) against Yu Darvish with zero home runs or extra-base hits.
Stack of the day: Boston Red Sox
With the affordability of the starting pitchers tonight, adding as many Red Sox as possible is the goal. David Ortiz, Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts, and Sandy Leon, if he starts.
Starting pitchers:
Gerrit Cole, PIT – “Must-start of the day.”
Tanner Roark, WAS – This season, at home, Roark is 5-3 with a 2.32 ERA.
Yu Darvish, TEX – He’s struck out at least seven batters in three of the past four starts.
Catchers:
Russell Martin, TOR – He hasa .315 wOBA against lefties in 2016.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, DET – He has a .256 ISO against righties this year.
Sandy Leon, BOS – He has a .244 ISO and a .438 wOBA against righties this season.
First basemen:
David Ortiz, BOS – He has a .394 ISO and a .479 wOBA against righties this year.
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI – He has a .213 ISO against righties this season.
Miguel Cabrera, DET – He has a .250 ISO and a .400 wOBA against righties this season.
Joey Votto, CIN – He has a .214 ISO against righties in 2016.
Second basemen:
Brian Dozier, MIN – He has a .351 ISO against lefties this year.
Ian Kinsler, DET – He has a .211 ISO against righties this season.
Third basemen:
Jake Lamb, ARI – He has a .347 ISO and a .436 wOBA against righties this year.
Josh Donaldson, TOR – He has a .458 wOBA against left-handed pitchers this year.
Miguel Sano, MIN – He has a .316 ISO against lefties this season.
Todd Frazier, CWS – He has a .245 ISO against righties in 2016.
Shortstops:
Trevor Story, COL – He has a .278 ISO against righties this season.
Eduardo Nunez, MIN – He has a .241 ISO against southpaws this year.
Jean Segura, ARI – He has a .353 wOBA against righties in 2016.
Outfielders:
Jackie Bradley Jr., BOS – “Deal of the day.”
Adam Duvall, CIN – He has a .300 ISO against righties this year.
Jay Bruce, CIN – “Deal of the day.”
Carlos Gonzalez, COL – He has a .230 ISO and a .404 wOBA against righties this year.
Robbie Grossman, MIN – He has a .219 ISO and a .441 wOBA against lefties this season.
Mookie Betts, BOS – He has a .223 ISO against righties this year.
Cameron Maybin, DET – He has a .304 wOBA against righties this season.
Brandon Drury, ARI – He has a .193 ISO against righties in 2016.
