For those who are unfamiliar with my thought process, I aim to add as many home run hitters as possible to my daily fantasy baseball lineups. One way of doing that is to look at a player’s isolated power numbers (ISO). The ISO statistic removes singles and provides a larger weight for each extra-base hit.
I also use the weighted on-base average (wOBA) metric. This stat takes every positive outcome into consideration.
Last year, the league average was a .150 ISO and a .313 wOBA. So, when you see me list a player’s ISO or wOBA, you know why I do it.
5 Things to Watch:
1. Here are the four highest over/unders for Monday, provided by OddsShark…
2. Toronto leads the way as the favorite, according to Vegas, with a -257 line. More on the Blue Jays later in the post.
3. We have three interleague series starting on Monday: COL/BAL, SD/TOR, and CHC/CWS. All will include the DH.
4. For the BvP readers: David Ortiz is 11-for-29 (.379) with two homers against Justin Verlander…Carlos Gonzalez is 7-for-17 (.412) against Yovani Gallardo…Also, Albert Pujols is 4-for-10 (.400) with three home runs against Ian Kennedy.
5. Rain is projected to be in the forecast during the STL/NYM game tonight. This is unfortunate, because there are two solid DFS pitchers on the hill for that contest.
Yesterday’s recap:
D.J. Foster recommended Steven Matz as his favorite pitcher and he delivered: 6 IP, 0 ER, and 6 Ks in the win. The batter suggestions were great, as well. Wilson Ramos, Evan Gattis, Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Altuve (twice!), and Ryan Schimpf all homered.
Must-Start of the day: Carlos Gonzalez, COL
The price is a little steep on DK ($4,900), but very affordable on FD ($3,700). CarGo has great BvP numbers against Gallardo (see “5 Things”), he has a .228 ISO against righties this year, and is 7-for-20 (.350 AVG) in the past week. Yes, please.
Deal of the day: Jake Smolinski, OAK
In the past, you had to worry about Smolinski getting lifted from the lineup as soon as a right-handed pitcher entered the game. Now, he’s getting more and more playing time. In the past week, Smolinski leads the A’s with a .500 AVG (10-for-20). He also has the best ISO (.380) and wOBA (.499) against lefties for Oakland.
Avoid of the day: Giancarlo Stanton, MIA
He is 1-for-13 (.077) with five strikeouts against Jeremy Hellickson.
Stack of the day: Toronto Blue Jays
They are the biggest favorites on the board tonight by far, -257. They also have the highest implied run total. This is a night where you want as many Blue Jays as your DFS site allows. Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion are no-brainers. The tough decision will be the other two spots to fill. While the lineup placement will have a significant impact, I’m leaning towards Devon Travis and Michael Saunders.
Starting pitchers:
Noah Syndergaard, NYM – I’ve already warned you about the weather, but let’s focus on the positives for Thor: 1) at least eight Ks in two of the past three starts; 2) 5-2 with a 2.30 ERA at home this year; 3) Vegas has given this game a 6.5 over/under with the Mets as the favorite.
Dallas Keuchel, HOU – After a terrible start to 2016, Keuchel has calmed down. He’s allowed two earned runs or less in four straight starts and has struck out at least five batters in three consecutive outings.
Anthony DeSclafani, CIN – I like his price tag a lot more on FD ($7,300). DeSclafani has struck out at least six batters in three of the past four starts and allowed three earned runs or less in every outing this season.
Catchers:
Robinson Chirinos, TEX – He has a .289 ISO against righties this year.
James McCann, DET – He has a .222 ISO against lefties this season.
First basemen:
Edwin Encarnacion, TOR – He has a .267 ISO against righties this season.
David Ortiz, BOS – The price tag is astronomical, but he has a solid BvP against Verlander and an amazing .388 ISO against righties.
Albert Pujols, LAA – (See “5 Things”)
Second basemen:
Devon Travis, TOR – “Stack of the day.”
Rougned Odor, TEX – He has a .212 ISO against righties in 2016.
Ian Kinsler, DET – He has a .227 ISO against lefties this season.
Jonathan Schoop, BAL – He has a .193 ISO against lefties this year.
Third basemen:
Josh Donaldson, TOR – He has a .292 ISO against righties this year.
Danny Valencia, OAK – He has a .244 ISO against lefties this season.
Nick Castellanos, DET – He has a .222 ISO against southpaws in 2016.
Shortstops:
Trevor Story, COL – He has a .307 ISO against righties in 2016.
Marcus Semien, OAK – He has a .344 ISO against lefties this season.
Xander Bogaerts, BOS – He has a .364 wOBA against righties this year and is batting .538 (14-for-26) in the past week.
Manny Machado, BAL – He has a .222 ISO against lefties this year.
Outfielders:
Ian Desmond, TEX – He has a .211 ISO against righties this year.
Mookie Betts, BOS – Betts has a .238 ISO against righties this year, but make sure he’s cleared to start.
Michael Saunders, TOR – “Stack of the day.”
Nomar Mazara, TEX – He has a .409 AVG (9-for-22) in the past week.
Jake Smolinski, OAK – “Deal of the day.”
Mark Trumbo, BAL – He has a .305 ISO against lefties this year.
Khris Davis, OAK – He has a .235 ISO against southpaws in 2016.
Cameron Maybin, DET – He has a .416 wOBA against lefties this season.
