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5 Things to Watch:
1. These are the four highest over/unders for Friday, provided by OddsShark…
2. Rain is in the forecast for the TB-BAL game. You saw that this game is projected to have a lot of runs, so be mindful of the weather.
3. The Giants (Jake Peavy) and Yankees (Masahiro Tanaka) are the two biggest favorites of the day. In his last start, Tanaka traveled to Minnesota, which he will face tonight: 8 IP, 1 ER and 5 Ks in the win. As for Peavy’s opponent, the Phillies have the worst team batting average this season (.230 AVG).
4. For the BvP enthusiasts: Miguel Cabrera is 9-for-26 (.346) with two home runs against Danny Salazar … Adam Jones is 11-for-27 (.407) against Matt Moore … Elvis Andrus is 10-for-25 (.400) against David Price.
5. I’m going to suggest Max Scherzer in my group of starting pitchers tonight, but take this precaution: His Vegas odds aren’t as high as I thought they should/would be. What does that mean? Well, the average bettor will see that Scherzer and the Nats have great value (-164) and will likely place money on them. When the public loves to bet one way, I tend to go against them (new casinos are being built for a reason). Scherzer’s DFS price tag is also too high when trying to compose of a lineup with big bats.
Yesterday’s recap:
John Halpin continues to provide winners. Nelson Cruz homered twice on Thursday and was Halpin’s must-start.
Must-Start of the day: Trevor Story, COL
His price tag used to be off the charts when playing at Coors Field. While the price is still high on DK ($5,100), Story is substantially cheaper on FD ($3,300). Story has a .315 ISO against righties at home.
Deal of the day: Second basemen
Full disclosure, I listed 23 batters below, as I was making this post, before I got to a second baseman that I liked. So, when filling out your DFS lineup, feel free to punt this position to make room for the more expensive positions.
Avoid of the day: Ryan Braun, MIL
He is 0-for-10 with five strikeouts against Max Scherzer.
Stack of the day: San Diego Padres
While we don’t know much about Cody Reed for the Reds, we know the Padres love lefties. This season, San Diego as scored 109 total runs (tied for second-most) against southpaws. For the past week, the Padres have produced 42 runs, which is second to only San Francisco. Matt Kemp, Yangervis Solarte, Wil Myers, and Melvin Upton Jr. would be a great bunch of bats to use.
Starting pitchers:
Max Scherzer, WAS – This season, Mad Max has the third-highest K/9 (11.37) amongst his colleagues. Now, Scherzer gets the second-highest strikeout team in baseball, the Brewers (684 Ks).
Jake Peavy, SF – To go along with his strong favorite odds (-205), Peavy has allowed one run or fewer in four of his past five outings.
Steven Matz, NYM – Matz has matched up against the Braves three time this season. He’s combined for four earned runs and 23 strikeouts in 20 innings of work against Atlanta.
Aaron Sanchez, TOR – The over/under might be intimidating (nine total runs), but Sanchez has been a very reliable option at SP. He’s struck out at least six batters in seven straight starts and has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his past four outings. Also, the White Sox have the third-highest strikeout total in the past week.
Catchers:
Welington Castillo, ARI – He has a .352 ISO against left-handed pitchers this season.
Russell Martin, TOR – He has a .306 wOBA against lefties this season.
First basemen:
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI – He has a .219 ISO and .467 wOBA against lefties this year. Plus, Goldy is playing at Coors Field tonight.
David Ortiz, BOS – It will be a tough decision between Goldy and Big Papi tonight in DFS. Ortiz is more expensive on DraftKings, but is $700 cheaper on FD.
Edwin Encarnacion, TOR – If you aren’t sold on Goldy or Ortiz, there is a strong third option. E5 has a .400 ISO against southpaws this year.
Joey Votto, CIN – He has a .209 ISO against righties this season.
Mark Reynolds, COL – He has a .242 ISO against righties in 2016.
Second basemen:
Jed Lowrie, OAK – He has a .315 wOBA against righties this season.
Starlin Castro, NYY – He has a .188 ISO and a .338 wOBA against lefties this season.
Third basemen:
Nolan Arenado, COL – He has a .285 ISO against righties this year.
Evan Longoria, TB – He has a .282 ISO against righties this season.
Yangervis Solarte, SD – He has a .281 ISO and .446 wOBA against lefties in 2016.
Shortstops:
Trevor Story, COL – “Must-start of the day”
Elvis Andrus, TEX – (See “5 Things”)
Outfielders:
Matt Kemp, SD – He has a .400 ISO and .456 wOBA against lefties in 2016.
Mark Trumbo, BAL – He has a .338 ISO against lefties this year.
Jay Bruce, CIN – He has a .326 ISO against righties this season.
Carlos Gonzalez, COL – He has a .231 ISO and .402 wOBA against righties this season.
Charlie Blackmon, COL – He has a .229 ISO against right-handed pitchers this year.
Adam Duvall, CIN – He has a very affordable price on FanDuel ($3,600), and Duvall has notched at least 15 FD points in six of the last eight games.
Yasmany Tomas, ARI – He has a .333 ISO against southpaws this year.
Adam Jones, BAL – (See “5 Things”)
Corey Dickerson, TB – He has a .280 ISO against righties this season.
Peter O’Brien, ARI – Though he only has three hits in 14 ABs against lefties, O’Brien hit three home runs (.643 ISO).
Rob Refsnyder, NYY – He has a .222 ISO against southpaws.
Jackie Bradley Jr., BOS – I apologize for all the outfielders, but I’m trying to include all that I like while also providing different price tags, in case you need a specific amount to spend. Bradley has a .303 ISO and .415 wOBA against righties this year.
