We have a full main slate tonight, but only one pitcher is priced over $10,000. There are a staggering 23 pitchers under $8,000 on DraftKings tonight. Should we use two of the higher priced ones, or are there bargains at a lower price? Let’s check out the past stats for some insight.
NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.
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Luke Weaver has never faced the Pirates. He has a solid 3.86 ERA in his first four starts, and he struck out ten Brewers in his last outing. He has a nice strikeout potential, and has not given up more than three runs in any of his four starts if you are looking to roll the dice.
Luis Cessa allowed no hits and a walk in an inning of relief against the Blue Jays back in May. Of course, he faced the wraparound part of the order before Jose Bautista was hitting leadoff. His 4.17 ERA is not bad, but it isn’t good either. Definitely not good enough for me to use him against the hard hitting Blue Jays.
Rafael Montero was solid in his first start, giving up only two hits in five scoreless innings. Now for the bad news: he walked six and only struck out three. His problems finding the strike zone make him a risk, even against the suddenly offensively challenged Reds.
Adam Morgan was solid against the Marlins in his only start against them, but he only struck out one batter. His 6.21 ERA should tell you that this isn’t worth the risk.
Best Bets:
Corey Kluber ($12,600): This makes me a little nervous since Kluber is $2,800 more than the next pitcher on the list. Will he really outscore everyone else by enough to justify the price? The Astros are only hitting .236 against Kluber in 72 at bats. The Astros have not homered off of him, and the seven rusn scored is average. They have struck out 21 times, which is approaching elite level. The strikeouts give Kluber the best chance at racking up big points tonight.
Aaron Sanchez ($9,600): Sanchez has owned the Yankees so far in his young career. The current lineup is hitting just .197 in 61 at bats with a homer, only two runs, and 14 strikeouts. If Sanchez were guaranteed to not be on a pitch/innings limit, he would be the top option of the day. Just be aware that if the game gets out of hand, Sanchez could be pulled at any point after the fifth inning.
Honorable Mention:
Brandon Finnegan ($8,800): The Mets are only hitting .219 against Finnegan in 32 at bats with a homer, three RBI, and nine strikeouts. Those are good numbers. Add to that the fact that he gets to face off against rookie Rafael Montero, and you have a sneaky option for one of the best pitchers of the night.
Clay Buchholz ($7,900): Buchholz has never faced the Padres, but the has faced a few current Padres. They are a combined 3-18(.167) with only one extra base hit (a double by Oswaldo Arcia), no runs, and six strikeouts. There is potential for a huge game here considering the struggles of the Padre offense.
Jason Hammel ($7,500): The Brewers have struck out 30 times against Hammel in only 108 at bats. You can forgive the five homers and the decent .241 average in that case. The high number of strikeouts is going to make Hammel a very attractive play in DraftKings tonight.
Dark Horses:
Jeff Samardzija ($6,300): The Rockies have hit .258 against Samardzija, but they only have two homers and eight runs in 120 at bats. The 32 strikeouts adds to the intrigue. As does Samardzija’s 2.01 career ERA at Coors Field over 22.1 innings. He is worth a look if you are in need of a cheap option.
Brad Peacock ($5,600): Peacock will get a couple of turns in the rotation with Dallas Keuchel still not ready to return to the mound. That could be a good thing against Cleveland. The Indians are only hitting .186 against Peacock in 43 at bats with a homer, three runs, and nine strikeouts. Those are very solid numbers at this low of a price.
Jose Urena ($5,500): The Phillies are only 5-29(.172) against Urena with two solo homers and seven strikeouts. Those are really good numbers at this price, and you have to think that Urena will have a good shot at the win facing off against Adam Morgan.
Adam Jones ($3,800) is 11-28(.393) with a walk, a double, two homers, and four RBI off of Jake Odorizzi. Manny Machado ($4,100) has also hit Odorizzi hard, going 7-26(.269) with two walks, two homers, and six RBI off of him. J.J. Hardy ($2,300) is 6-23(.261) with a walk, a double, a homer, and two RBI. Chris Davis ($3,400) is only 5-24(.208), but he has six walks, two doubles, two homers, and three RBI against Odorizzi. Jonathan Schoop ($3,000) has six hits in 16 at bats with three doubles and a RBI. Pedro Alvarez ($3,100) is 3-8 with a solo shot against Odorizzi.
Ervin Santana has been brilliant over the last ten weeks or so, but the Royals have still hit him hard. Alcides Escobar ($4,200) is 9-30 with a double and five RBI. Eric Hosmer ($3,900) is 6-19(.316) with five walks, two doubles, two homers, and nine RBI against Santana. Salvador Perez ($3,800) has two hits in five at bats with a homer and two RBI. Alex Gordon ($3,500) is only 8-37(.216), but he has five walks, two doubles, two homers, and five RBI against Santana.
Brian Dozier ($5,300) is 5-14(.357) with a walk, a double, and three solo homers against Dillon Gee. Robbie Grossman ($3,600) has three hits in seven at bats with a homer and two RBI. Eddie Rosario ($3,000) is 3-6 with a walk, a homer, and two driven in. Kurt Suzuki ($2,700) is 6-17(.353) with a double and a RBI. Miguel Sano ($3,900) only has one hit in nine at bats against Gee, but it is a two run homer.
You will probably want to stack hitters against White Sox lefty Miguel Gonzalez. Miguel Cabrera ($5,400) leads the charge going 6-13(.462) with two doubles, a homer, and three RBI. Ian Kinsler ($4,900) only has five hits in 20 at bats, but he has a walk, a double, a homer, and five RBI. J.D. Martinez ($4,600) has four hits in eight at bats with a walk, two doubles, and three RBI. Justin Upton ($4,200) is perfect with a walk, a double, and two RBI against Gonzalez.
The A’s aren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut, but they have had no problems hitting Ricky Nolasco. Yonder Alonso ($2,500) is 4-11 with two walks, a double, a homer, and four RBI against Nolasco. Billy Butler ($2,700) has five hits in 15 at bats with a walk, a double, and a RBI. Ryon Healy ($2,600) has a solo homer in two at bats against Nolasco. So does Max Muncy ($2,600), except his is a two run shot in four at bats. Danny Valencia ($3,000) is 2-6 with a double and a solo homer.
Jose Altuve ($4,700) is 4-15(.267) with two doubles and two RBI against Corey Kluber. Marwin Gonzalez ($2,700) has three hits in nine at bats with a walk and two RBI.
Matt Carpenter ($5,000) is 7-17(.412) with two walks, a double, a triple, and two RBI against Ryan Vogelsong.
Adrian Gonzalez ($4,200) is 4-7 with a homer and four RBI against Shelby Miller. Carlos Ruiz ($3,200) is only 4-18(.222), but he has two walks, two doubles, and four RBI.
Nolan Arenado ($5,400) is 5-13 with a walk, a double, a triple, and two RBI against Jeff Samardzija. Carlos Gonzalez ($4,600) only has four hits in 20 at bats, but one of them is a solo homer. Gerardo Parra ($3,500) is 8-21(.381) with two walks, a double, a homer, and three RBI off Shark.
Coco Crisp ($3,700) is 5-16(.313) with five walks, two doubles, a triple, a homer, and two RBI against Brad Peacock.
Tyler Goeddel ($3,700) and Tommy Joseph ($3,200) both hit solo homers in their only plate appearances against Jose Urena.
My guess is that Andrelton Simmons ($3,500) will be a part of a lot of winning lineups tonight. Simmons is 4-13 with a double, two homers, and six RBI against Ross Detwiler.
David Ortiz ($5,500) drilled a solo home run off of Paul Clemens in his only plate appearance against him.
Freddie Freeman ($5,000) has punished Gio Gonzalez. Freeman is 9-31(.290) with two walks, four doubles, two homers, and 10 RBI against Gio. Matt Kemp ($4,800) is 4-13(.308) with two walks, a double, a homer, and four RBI. Nick Markakis ($2,700) has five RBI despite a disappointing 7-30(.233) mark.
Adrian Beltre ($5,000) is 5-10 with three walks, a homer, and three RBI against James Paxton.
Yoenis Cespedes ($4,800) only has one hit in five at bats against Brandon Finnegan, but it is a homer and he has driven in all three runs the Mets have off Finnegan.
Both Angel Pagan ($4,000) and Buster Posey ($4,700) took Tyler Anderson deep in his first start against the Giants. Can they do it again?
Corey Dickerson ($3,800) is 5-9 with a double, a homer, and four RBI against Yovani Gallardo in his career. Brad Miller ($4,500) is a homer shy of the cycle in ten at bats, but has no counting stats.
Bryce Harper ($5,400) is only 1-4 against Williams Perez, but the hit is a three run homer. Daniel Murphy ($5,300) is 3-6 with two doubles and a solo homer.
Jose Abreu ($4,500) is 3-7 with a homer and three RBI against Matt Boyd. Avisail Garcia ($3,800) is 2-5 with a homer and two RBI.
Ryan Braun ($4,300) is 9-27 with three walks, a double, three homers, and four RBI against Jason Hammel. Kirk Nieuwenhuis ($3,600) is only 2-9, but he has two walks, a homer, and two RBI.
Anthony Rizzo ($5,400) has destroyed Wily Peralta. Rizzo is 14-28 with four walks, three doubles, five homers, and 11 RBI against Peralta. Miguel Montero ($3,300) is 4-11 with a walk, a homer, and two RBI. Addison Russell ($4,300) has two walks, a homer, and two RBI in three at bats.
Nelson Cruz ($4,700) has four hits in seven at bats off of Martin Perez with a walk, a double, and two solo homers. Kyle Seager ($4,300) is 10-27(.370) with two walks, three homers, and five RBI against Perez.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, and alternative plays if you don’t want to follow the herd. Don’t play FanDuel before checking it out!
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball
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