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Let’s get to today’s interesting facts, using DraftKings prices.
Five Things to Watch:
1. Here are the three highest projected over/unders, provided by OddsShark…
2. Weather: We should be all clear for Sunday.
3. You down with BvP? Alex Rodriguez is 13-for-42 with 4 HR against Ervin Santana. Miguel Cabrera is 9-for-24 lifetime against Carlos Carrasco. Melky Cabrera is 6-for-21 with 2 HR against R.A. Dickey. Yan Gomes is 7-for-14 with 2 HR against Anibal Sanchez. Jose Abreu is 5-for-12 with 3 HR against Dickey.
4. Your three biggest pitching favorites for the night: Madison Bumgarner against Philly (-300), Michael Pineda against Minnesota (-193) and John Lackey against Miami (-178).
5. Sneaky stack options: The White Sox have had success against Dickey in the past, and knuckleballers are prone to blowups at any time. The Red Sox should get to A.J. Griffin, although that will cost you a pretty penny.
Must-Start of the day: Paul Goldschmidt, ARI
In Coors Field, against a lefty? Yes, please. Goldy has a 1.112 OPS against LHP this season, and he’s hot right now (.390 over his last 10 games).
Deal of the day: Melky Cabrera, CWS
Cabrera is 6-for-21 with 2 HR against Dickey, and he’s very affordable at just $3700. Add in that the Melk Man is hitting .316 over his last 10 games, and there’s plenty of value to exploit here.
Avoid of the day: Jason Kipnis, CLE
His price may be attractive, and you might consider stacking Cleveland against Anibal Sanchez. Just leave out Kipnis, who is 4-for-27 with 8 Ks against Sanchez lifetime.
Stack of the day: Arizona Diamondbacks
Maybe it’s a bit too obvious, but the D-Backs are clearly the best stack option on the board in a game with a projected run total of 12. With multiple hitters who give left-handed pitchers big time problems, it’s hard to fade Coors Field on Saturday.
Yesterday’s Recap
Adam Meyer made a gutsy call by recommending the Padres as his stack of the night, but boy did it pay off. The Padres tallied up 13 runs on 15 hits, which probably won you some dough if you rolled with it. Let’s move on to Saturday.
Starting pitchers:
Michael Pineda, NYY: It’s always difficult to recommend a pitcher with a 5.82 ERA, but the Twins can barely hit and Pineda is one of the biggest favorites on the board for Saturday. At least the strikeout power is there (88 K in 77 1/3 IP), even if he does invite some damage.
Jacob deGrom, NYM: Even though he hasn’t been the same guy we saw last year, he should be able to easily shut down one of the worst lineups in baseball. deGrom has still been a strikeout-per-inning guy, so there’s potential for a great day.
Kevin Gausman, BAL: He hasn’t been as bad as his numbers suggest, and he throws enough heat to rack up the strikeouts (62 K in 68 IP). Tampa Bay doesn’t exactly have a murderer’s row, and Gausman’s price point is extremely comfortable.
Catchers:
Yan Gomes, CLE: Gomes is 7-for-14 with 2 HR against Sanchez.
Welington Castillo, ARI: Batting 1.087 against lefties this season and is in Coors Field in a game with a high projected run total.
First basemen:
Miguel Cabrera, DET: Cabrera is 9-for-24 lifetime against Carrasco.
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI: In Coors Field, against a lefty? Yes, please. Goldy has a 1.112 OPS against LHP this season, and he’s hot right now (.390 over his last 10 games).
Second basemen:
Jonathan Schoop, BAL: Hitting .414 with 2 HR over his last seven games.
Brett Lawrie, CWS: Part of a stack against Dickey.
Third basemen:
Alex Rodriguez, NYY: Rodriguez is 13-for-42 with 4 HR against Santana.
Josh Donaldson, TOR: Hitting .432 with 2 HR over his last seven games.
Shortstops:
Corey Seager, LAD: He’s had early success against southpaws, and he’s hitting .341 over his last 10.
Brandon Crawford, SFG: You can pick on Jeremy Hellickson with left-handed bats, and Crawford is cheap at just $3700.
Outfielders:
Ryan Braun, MIL: Historically great against southpaws and owns a 1.045 OPS over his last 10 games.
Melky Cabrera, CWS: “Deal of the day”
Bryce Harper, WAS: Should go off against the combustible Matt Garza and is relatively affordable at $5000.
