Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks: May 13 – Wall Street Journal (blog)

• By
• Michael Salfino

The Methodology: As hard as it is to project a player’s performance in any given season, projecting his performance on any single day is even more difficult. Daily fantasy baseball is all about trying to maximize each day’s matchups using historic batter vs. pitcher performance, platoon advantages and the ballpark. Using prices at FanDuel, we’re making the lineup recommendations every Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday (when all teams are generally playing) based on a combination of key metrics. But always check your lineups and the current weather.

We grade pitchers in 23 statistics in eight broad categories: working ahead in count, command, finishing off hitters, off-speed effectiveness, overall effectiveness, dominance, efficiency and battle tendency (such as getting guys out when behind in the count). The stats are compiled by Major League Baseball analytics provider Inside-Edge. As the season progresses, last year’s stats matter less and less until they eventually disappear.

The hitting slate is generally determined by choosing the hitters who Inside-Edge grades as hitting the ball hard most frequently this year and who are also going against the pitchers who have the lowest composite grade that day. Platoon advantages (lefty vs. righty and vice versa) and ballpark factors are also considered.

NOTE: Everyone knows that guys like Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw are good plays, so we will only provide underpriced, value picks, which will free up more cap room for the high-priced options.

MAY 13: PITCHERS

Jason Hammel, Cubs (Mets, $8,500): According to the 23-category, Inside-Edge metrics, Hammel rates as an 87 of out of a possible 100. But even if he’s a B-plus pitcher, he’s facing a D-minus offense right now in the Mets. You have to worry about getting the win, however, considering his mound opponent is Matt Harvey. So that’s why we’re going with two options today.

Carlos Frias, Dodgers (Marlins, $6,600): He’s scored a 94 this year on the Inside-Edge 100-point scale. But it’s only based on 12-plus innings so you are buying some risk here. However, Frias has been throwing very hard (95.9 mph average fastball, according to Fangraphs) and Miami strikes out a lot (fifth-highest K rate, according to Stats, LLC).

MAY 12: HITTERS

Andrelton Simmons, SS, Braves (at Reds, $3,000): You have to pick on rookie starter Raisel Iglesias, whose minor league numbers this year do not impress. Iglesias allowed three homers in 21.1 Triple-A innings and yielded almost as many walks (7) as strikeouts (11). Plus he’s making his first start of the year and only second of his career. Simmons has been a solid point producer of late and works great in a Braves stack, usually hitting second in the order ahead of Freddie Freeman ($3,900).

Anthony Gose, OF, Tigers (Twins, $3,200): Minnesota’s Ricky Nolasco is the worst non-rookie pitcher on our list today, so you want to pick on him. Gose is a highly graded hitter at the top of Detroit’s powerful lineup. Nolasco’s on-base plus slugging allowed this year is .964 and it was .861 in 2014 (average is about .700). Nolasco also allowed 16 steals in 21 attempts last year, so maybe the speedy Gose can provide some points on the basepaths.

Yasmani Grandal, C, Dodgers (Marlins, $3,000): A.J. Pierzynski is cheaper at $2,500 but it’s tough to know when the nearly 40-year-old catcher will be starting. If he is, put him in. Otherwise, go with the hot Grandal, who is more certain to start (you have to check the lineups for all catchers given how frequently they get rested). Grandal nearly single-handedly won money for his owners last week (a two-homer, eight-RBI game in Milwaukee) and for the full season grades as Inside-Edge’s third-best Dodger hitter (96 on their 100-point scale). Grandal’s hard-hit rate of 22.1% is well above average (15.4%) and ranks third at the position behind Pierzynski (26.1%) and Stephen Vogt (23.5%).

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