Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks: May 19 – Wall Street Journal (blog)

• By
• Michael Salfino

The Methodology: As hard as it is to project a player’s performance in any given season, projecting his performance on any single day is even more difficult. Daily fantasy baseball is all about trying to maximize each day’s matchups using historic batter vs. pitcher performance, platoon advantages and the ballpark. Using prices at FanDuel, we’re making the lineup recommendations every Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday (when all teams are generally playing) based on a combination of key metrics. But always check your lineups and the current weather.

We grade pitchers in 23 statistics in eight broad categories: working ahead in count, command, finishing off hitters, off-speed effectiveness, overall effectiveness, dominance, efficiency and battle tendency (such as getting guys out when behind in the count). The stats are compiled by Major League Baseball analytics provider Inside-Edge. As the season progresses, last year’s stats matter less and less until they eventually disappear.

The hitting slate is generally determined by choosing the hitters who Inside-Edge grades as hitting the ball hard most frequently this year and who are also going against the pitchers who have the lowest composite grade that day. Platoon advantages (lefty vs. righty and vice versa) and ballpark factors are also considered.

NOTE: Everyone knows that guys like Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw are good plays, so we will only provide underpriced, value picks, which will free up more cap room for the high-priced options. 

MAY 19: PITCHER

Jason Hammel, Cubs (at Padres, $8,600): His two-year, weighted composite ranking of an 88 on the Inside-Edge 100-point scale is an eyelash away from the two most expensive pitchers on the board, Sonny Gray (90, $10,500) and Johnny Cueto (90, $10,200). That ranking spans 23 key pitching categories. The Padres are also worse than average in strikeouts and Hammel can pile those up (41 in 46.1 innings against just six walks).

MAY 19: HITTERS

Logan Forsythe, 2B, Rays (at Braves, $2,600): Jimmy Paredes at $3,200 is another excellent option tonight but I’d rather save $600 for another hitter. Forsythe grades as a 93 on the Inside-Edge 100-point hitting scale (Paredes this year is a 94) and gets one of the weaker pitchers on the slate in Mike Foltynewicz. Unlike Paredes, he does not have the platoon advantage, however.

Kyle Blanks, OF, Rangers (at Red Sox, $3,000): A big power, righty bat in aiming over the inviting Green Monster against a struggling lefty (Wade Miley with his 5.60 ERA)…. What could go wrong? The 6-foot-6, 265-pound Blanks is red hot, too (18-for-55 with three bombs).

J.D. Martinez, OF, Tigers (Brewers, $3,200): He’s very hot (1.175 OPS the past week) and that’s not priced in. A recent Stanford University study advises us to play hot hitters so we’ll take the tailwind when it’s basically free, against one of the lower-rated pitchers according to the Inside-Edge metrics, Jimmy Nelson. Martinez also has been a productive hitter outside of this hot streak.

Joey Votto, 1B, Reds (at Royals, $3,600): This price is too low, especially against a righty like Yordano Ventura with an ERA over 5.00. Votto has cooled after a white-hot start but the lefty remains one of the best hitters in baseball when healthy. This year, Inside-Edge grades him a 95 out of 100.

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