Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks: May 20 – Wall Street Journal (blog)

• By
• Michael Salfino

The Methodology: As hard as it is to project a player’s performance in any given season, projecting his performance on any single day is even more difficult. Daily fantasy baseball is all about trying to maximize each day’s matchups using historic batter vs. pitcher performance, platoon advantages and the ballpark. Using prices at FanDuel, we’re making the lineup recommendations every Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday (when all teams are generally playing) based on a combination of key metrics. But always check your lineups and the current weather.

We grade pitchers in 23 statistics in eight broad categories: working ahead in count, command, finishing off hitters, off-speed effectiveness, overall effectiveness, dominance, efficiency and battle tendency (such as getting guys out when behind in the count). The stats are compiled by Major League Baseball analytics provider Inside-Edge. As the season progresses, last year’s stats matter less and less until they eventually disappear.

The hitting slate is generally determined by choosing the hitters who Inside-Edge grades as hitting the ball hard most frequently this year and who are also going against the pitchers who have the lowest composite grade that day. Platoon advantages (lefty vs. righty and vice versa) and ballpark factors are also considered.

NOTE: Everyone knows that guys like Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw are good plays, so we will only provide underpriced, value picks, which will free up more cap room for the high-priced options. 

MAY 20: PITCHER

Chase Anderson, Diamondbacks (at Marlins, $6,500): He’s the second-highest-rated hurler on our board, but over $2,000 cheaper than Jake Odorizzi. Anderson’s composite score since 2014 in the 23 Inside-Edge pitching metrics is 85.8 out of a possible 100. And this year he’s been even better (89). While Anderson’s K-rate is subpar at a hair below 7 per 9 innings, he faces a Marlins team that has the sixth-highest K-rate. Miami is also well below average in runs per game. The park in Miami is pitcher friendly, too. The objective today is to figure out a way to roster both Bryce Harper ($6,200) and Mike Trout ($5,100) against subpar mound opponents (Adam Warren and Andrew Hutchison, respectively).

MAY 20: HITTERS

Nick Hundley, C, Rockies (Phillies, $2,600): He’s hit very well all-around this year (.814 OPS) and homered yesterday (when we should have been playing him). Saying the opposing pitcher tonight has been awful is an understatement — Severino Gonzalez has allowed 18 baserunners in 7.2 innings. Note Hundley’s OPS at home is .998 and he has to be an automatic play in Colorado as long as his price refuses to reflect this reality.

Neil Walker, 2B, Pirates (Twins, $2,800): The switch-hitter is a different player batting leff-handed like tonight, rating a 92 on the Inside-Edge 100-point hitting scale. The righty he’ll face, Mike Pelfrey, has been much better than expected but still rates poorly in our model when you factor in the broader sample. Plus Pelfrey’s ERA this year based only on strikeouts and walks and average luck on balls in play would still be 4.89.

Trevor Plouffe, 3B, Twins (at Pirates, $2,500): He mashes lefties (.908 on-base plus slugging percentage, OPS, this year and .831 for his career). So Jeff Locke, who has not been good (5.40 ERA), can perhaps serve Plouffe up some mashable pitches. Note the Twins’ offense is sixth in runs per game.

Zack Cozart, SS, Reds (at Royals, $2,600): It’s rare when a player earns more points per thousand than his salary and Cosart is at 2.7 per game. He gets to face a poorly-rated pitcher, too, in Jeremy Guthrie (5.44 ERA). Cozart is rated just a shade below the much more expensive Joey Votto, according to Inside-Edge, at 93 on the 100-point scale. This is due mostly to Cozart’s six homers and an .856 OPS.

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