Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks: May 8 – Wall Street Journal (blog)

• By
• Michael Salfino

The Methodology: As hard as it is to project a player’s performance in any given season, projecting his performance on any single day is even more difficult. Daily fantasy baseball is all about trying to maximize each day’s matchups using historic batter vs. pitcher performance, platoon advantages and the ballpark. Using prices at FanDuel, we’re making the lineup recommendations every Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday (when all teams are generally playing) based on a combination of key metrics. But always check your lineups and the current weather.

We grade pitchers in 23 statistics in eight broad categories: working ahead in count, command, finishing off hitters, off-speed effectiveness, overall effectiveness, dominance, efficiency and battle tendency (such as getting guys out when behind in the count). The stats are compiled by Major League Baseball analytics provider Inside-Edge. As the season progresses, last year’s stats matter less and less until they eventually disappear.

The hitting slate is generally determined by choosing the hitters who Inside-Edge grades as hitting the ball hard most frequently this year and who are also going against the pitchers who have the lowest composite grade that day. Platoon advantages (lefty vs. righty and vice versa) and ballpark factors are also considered.

NOTE: Everyone knows that guys like Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw are good plays, so we will only provide underpriced, value picks, which will free up more cap room for the high-priced options.

MAY 8: PITCHER

Michael Wacha, Cardinals (at Pirates, $8,200): He’s the best bargain according to his two-year, 23-pitching category grade considering the quality of opponent (the Pirates can’t hit). But the objective today is to find enough cheap, hot/good hitters against poorly-graded pitchers so we can play Matt Harvey against the Phillies at $10,500.

MAY 8: HITTERS

Colby Rasmus, OF, Astros (Angels, $2,900): The lefty Rasmus has power (five homers this year) and faces fly-ball specialist Jered Weaver (now throwing 80 mph) in his friendly home park. Seems like a match made in daily fantasy heaven.

Yangervis Solarte, 3B, Padres (at Diamondbacks, $2,200): His line drive rate batting lefty like tonight is 23.3%, according to Inside-Edge. And tonight’s pitcher is one of our lowest-rated, Jeremy Hellickson. Arizona plays like Coors light, too, in its hitter-friendliness.

Russell Martin, C, Blue Jays (Red Sox, $3,900): No matter who your pitcher is, find a way to roster Martin, who has a 1.696 OPS the last week. He also has the platoon advantage tonight against a middling lefty in Wade Miley.

Jimmy Paredes, 2B, Orioles (at Yankees, $2,900): The short right-field porch beckons. Paredes is auto-corrected to Paradise and that’s what he’s been for his owners all year (1.014 OPS with four homers). He faces a righty in Adam Warren. I do not understand this price but just say, “Thanks,” and move on.

Jake Marisnick, OF, Astros (Angels, $3,000): He’s scoring a 97 on the Inside-Edge hitting scale across their 23 categories, where 100 is perfect. That’s 13th best in baseball. He also is a projectable source of steals (nine bags) and, like Rasmus, gets struggling Jered Weaver (5.86 ERA, 8 HR allowed). It’s important to mix in some stolen-base potential in your lineup because homers are a tougher bet.

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