Daily Fantasy Sports: Hitters for August 1 – ESPN

Starting pitcher projected Game Scores for August 1
					2015 Statistics			Past 21 Days
GS	Team	Name	T	Opp	W-L	ERA	WHIP	W-L	ERA	WHIP
80		Clayton Kershaw	L	LAA	8-6	2.51	0.94	2-0	0.00	0.35
74		Jacob deGrom	R	Wsh	10-6	2.05	0.88	1-0	1.32	0.51
62		Gerrit Cole	R	@Cin	14-4	2.24	1.08	2-1	2.05	0.91
62		Cole Hamels	L	SF	6-7	3.64	1.18	1-1	8.22	1.57
61		Dallas Keuchel	L	Ari	12-5	2.32	0.99	1-2	3.48	1.02
57		Joe Ross	R	@NYM	2-3	3.03	0.95	0-2	3.65	0.81
57		Lance Lynn	R	Col	8-5	2.71	1.22	2-1	3.38	1.17
56		Andrew Heaney	L	@LAD	5-0	1.79	0.87	3-0	1.80	0.90
54		Kyle Hendricks	R	@Mil	4-5	3.81	1.17	0-1	3.80	1.23
53		Anibal Sanchez	R	@Bal	10-8	4.61	1.25	2-1	4.50	1.72
52		Matt Wisler	R	@Phi	5-1	3.43	1.33	2-0	3.79	1.42
51		Aaron Nola	R	Atl	1-1	3.29	0.95	1-1	3.29	0.95
51		Cody Anderson	R	@Oak	2-2	3.26	1.03	1-1	7.20	1.67
50		Chris Heston	R	@Tex	11-5	3.14	1.15	3-0	1.29	0.86
50		Mike Montgomery	L	@Min	4-4	3.20	1.21	0-2	7.08	1.87
49		Matt Garza	R	ChC	5-11	5.20	1.55	1-1	2.31	1.54
47		Raisel Iglesias	R	Pit	1-3	5.53	1.48	0-2	6.19	1.50
47		Kevin Gausman	R	Det	1-2	4.20	1.23	0-1	2.63	1.10
47		Jose Urena	R	SD	1-4	4.04	1.42	—	—	—
46		Jorge De La Rosa	L	@StL	6-4	5.03	1.43	0-1	6.97	1.35
46		Bryan Mitchell	R	@CWS	0-0	2.89	1.07	0-0	0.00	0.00
46		Yordano Ventura	R	@Tor	5-7	4.86	1.31	2-1	5.63	1.50
46		Kyle Gibson	R	Sea	8-8	3.48	1.27	1-2	6.23	1.44
45		Odrisamer Despaigne	R	@Mia	4-7	4.76	1.22	1-1	4.85	1.15
45		Mark Buehrle	L	KC	11-5	3.29	1.19	2-0	2.75	1.22
44		Joe Kelly	R	TB	2-6	5.94	1.51	0-1	8.31	1.62
44		Aaron Brooks	R	Cle	0-0	6.23	1.38	—	—	—
43		Jeremy Hellickson	R	@Hou	7-6	4.60	1.32	1-1	1.38	0.92
43		Matt Moore	L	@Bos	1-2	7.61	1.90	1-2	7.36	1.77
40		John Danks	L	NYY	5-8	4.97	1.45	1-0	3.18	1.35
GS: The pitcher’s projected “Game Score,” from Bill James’ original formula, which accounts for past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. A Game Score of 50 typically is typically regarded a quality start; anything over 70 is exceptional, anything under 30 poor. A “*” means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate projected Game Score; these are the author’s projections. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher’s opponent for the day. W-L: Pitcher’s win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher’s earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher’s average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.

Elite

With the uncertainty surrounding Clayton Kershaw, top billing on Saturday goes to Jacob deGrom, who gets a home matchup against the Nationals. It’s a quality matchup for the right-hander, as the Nats whiff at a healthy 21 percent clip versus righties and scored the fourth-fewest runs in baseball (77) in July. Plus, deGrom owns a 1.48 ERA at Citi Field this year and has surrendered just two runs over his last three starts combined. Expect him to be one of most widely owned starters in cash games on Saturday.

Speaking of Kershaw, after being scratched twice since Wednesday with soreness in his glute, the Los Angeles Dodgers hope he can take the hill today. By the numbers, the opposing Los Angeles Angels sport an above-average weighted on-base average (wOBA) versus southpaws while fanning at a below-average pace. It does help that the Halos will be devoid of their designated hitter, probably C.J. Cron but at least on paper this isn’t the ideal scenario for Kershaw to leave the game with his scoreless streak intact.While this is in part a testament to how well deGrom has progressed, with the question of how long Kershaw will work if he starts, this is a rare time the lefty isn’t the top choice on full-day DFS slates.

The subject of trade rumors for the past year, Cole Hamels was finally traded this week, and he’ll make his Rangers debut on Saturday against the Giants. Hamels, of course, is coming off a 13-strikeout no-hitter against the Cubs, a start that saw him throw 129 pitches, but hopefully the extra couple days of rest did him good. The Giants are middle-of-the-road against left-handed pitching this season (.307 wOBA), so it’s not a particularly threatening matchup, but they also don’t strike out much (18.4 percent), so the upside is a bit limited. In terms of aces in the evening slate, deGrom looks like the way to go between the two.

Solid

Gerrit Cole often finds himself in the above tier, but he falls below that threshold on Saturday. He heads to the hitter-friendly environments of Great American Ballpark to face a Reds team that has hit him hard this year, putting up 11 runs in 15 2/3 innings (6.31 ERA). That shouldn’t be enough to scare you off Cole, as that’s a small sample size, and the right-hander has been one of the most consistent starting pitchers in baseball this year, sporting a 2.24 ERA and 8.8 K/9 in 20 starts. But he’s not a must-play, either.

On the road this season, Dallas Keuchel holds a 3.66 ERA and a 6.3 K/9. At home, however, he sports a 1.13 ERA and 9.3 K/9. Fortunately, his Saturday matchup against the Diamondbacks comes at home, which only increases Keuchel’s appeal. Arizona does hit lefty pitching well, ranking third in the NL with a .317 wOBA, but the team’s 20.9 percent whiff rate also ranks top-10 in baseball. Whether to roster a pitcher in DFS often comes down to pricing, but given Keuchel’s dominance at home, he’s worth some cash-game consideration.

Lance Lynn never makes it into the ace conversation, but maybe that’s a good thing because he brings plenty of value at a non-ace price. Although he’s managed just one double-digit strikeout game this season, he’s still fanning more than a batter per inning and has allowed two or fewer runs in nine of his last 10 starts, so he racks up K’s while maintaining a high floor. The Rockies’ lineup is largely stripped of its powers away from Coors Field (.299 wOBA; 24.1 percent whiff rate), making Lynn a very intriguing play if you don’t want to pay up for Hamels or deGrom.

If you’re chasing wins, you’ll need to think twice about investing in Joe Ross, who is squaring off against deGrom on Saturday. But based purely on his matchup against the Mets lineup, Ross is in an awfully good spot. The Mets, after all, rank bottom-five in baseball with a .295 wOBA against righties and sported a 20.9 percent whiff rate that ranked top-10 in baseball in July. Meanwhile, Ross owns a 3.03 ERA to go along with a 9.4 K/9 and 0.83 BB/9 in five starts this year.

Streamers

Hot Spots

Two young arms, Matt Wisler and Aaron Nola, square off Saturday, and both have appeal as streaming options. Wisler is a free agent in 79 percent of ESPN.com leagues, while Nola is available in 58 percent. The Braves right-hander has been solid since joining the rotation, sporting a 3.43 ERA in seven starts, and he’s facing a Phillies team that is second-worst in baseball against right-handed pitching (.289 wOBA). There’s not much upside in this matchup, as Wisler hasn’t been missing many bats in the big leagues and the Phillies make a decent amount of contact, but he’s a good bet for a quality start regardless. Nola, meanwhile, faces an equally anemic Braves offense that sports a .300 wOBA versus righty pitching. Don’t expect many K’s out of him either, as the Braves are whiffing just 17.3 percent of the time against righties, which is tops in the NL.

A guy like Matt Garza, available in 88 percent of leagues, carries some risk. He’s had trouble with the longball this season, and the Cubs have a powerful lineup that can make him pay for his mistakes. That said, there’s some upside, too, as the Cubs are whiffing 24.3 percent of the time versus righties to go along with a .298 wOBA. And for all of Garza’s struggles this year, he’s pitched better his last two times out, which offers some encouragement.

Available in 72 percent of ESPN.com leagues, Kyle Gibson has struggled his last two times out, but before that he’d gone five straight outings allowing two or fewer earned runs. He’s a good bet to get back on track against the Mariners, who do not hit right-handed pitching well (.304 wOBA) and feature a lot of swing and miss (21.7 percent whiff rate). Gibson’s opponent, Mike Montgomery, who holds a 3.20 ERA in 11 starts this year, is a solid streamer, too.

Cold Streams

Even after his seven-inning, one-run performance against the Astros his last time out, there’s simply too much risk to for me to consider using Yordano Ventura on the road against the Blue Jays on Saturday. The Jays own a .361 wOBA at the Rogers Centre this year, and it takes a much more reliable pitcher to consider starting him in that environment.