Tuesday’s slate offers one of the best home streamers on the season plus two young flamethrowers. The Dodgers get a lot of attention offensively as they look to pick on a fan favorite.
Pitching
Pitchers to stream
Jhoulys Chacin (R), 23 percent ownership in ESPN leagues, San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: You might not have noticed, but Chacin has been a beast at home this year. He’s got a 1.94 ERA, .188 AVG, and 5-2 record at Petco this year. He has gone six innings or more in eight of his last nine starts. He’s also toting a 53% groundball rate this year and if he’s able to impose that upon the Mets, it will suit him well as they thrive on the flyball (and subsequently the home run).
Mike Clevinger (R), 57 percent, Cleveland Indians vs. Los Angeles Angels: Clevinger tops the normal 50 percent roster rate we like to use, but how is he on just 57 percent of rosters? Pitching isn’t nearly good enough this year to have a guy of Clevinger’s quality that widely available. Heck, even in a pitching era he is too good to be so available. He has a 2.73 ERA and 1.12 WHIP on the season with 73 strikeouts in 66 innings. Since allowing five earned in Colorado back on June 6th, he’s allowed five earned in six starts, good for a 1.36 ERA in 33 innings. He walks a few too many (4.5 per nine), but when you only allow 5.6 hits per nine, you can afford a few walks.
Luis Castillo (R), 19 percent, Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees: The 24-year old flamethrower’s 3.86 ERA doesn’t jump off the page, but considering it’s come in two starts against both Arizona and Washington (including a trip to each), a trip to Colorado, and a home game against Milwaukee, it starts to be a bit more impressive. It also comes with a 30 percent strikeout rate and 1.26 WHIP. He hasn’t allowed more than four in any of his six outings and he has at least five strikeouts in each.
Pitchers to avoid
Felix Hernandez (R), 85 percent, Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox: How is he still on this many rosters while our SP picks are so widely available?! OK, maybe I’m being too harsh because Felix does have a viable 3.88 ERA, but the 1.36 WHIP and 8.6 strikeouts per nine aren’t exactly game-changing. Anyway, this isn’t even so much about Hernandez as it is the Red Sox. I just don’t want to mess with them using anyone but the very best starters.
Projected game scores
GS is the projected game score for the pitcher. The asterisk (*) means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate rating; these are the author’s ratings.
Hitting
Catcher
Wilson Ramos (R), 31 percent, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles (LHP Wade Miley): Ramos has always handled lefties with a .297/.343/.469 line against them, plus better walk and strikeout rates than when facing righties. He’s struggling out of the gate in his return from a torn ACL, but he’s still clubbing lefties with a .978 OPS in 17 PA. Miley is getting hammered by righties with a .319/.403/.501 line and nothing has gone right in July with a 10.59 ERA, 2.59 WHIP, and 1.0 K/BB ratio.
First base
Yulieski Gurriel (R), 56 percent, Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies (RHP Nick Pivetta): You might not have noticed what Gurriel’s been up to of late. He took a .691 OPS into June after an ugly May, but he’s been rolling since with a .329/.343/.602 with 9 HR in 169 PA. He’s even chipped in two steals and 26 of his 53 hits have gone for extra bases. He beats up on righties, too, with a .318/.341/.536 and 10 his 13 homers. He doesn’t walk at all (2 percent rate), but he also doesn’t strikeout much (12 percent). Pivetta has a reverse platoon split this year where he’s much worse against righties: .306/.373/.674 with 14 HR in 162 PA.
Second base
Yoan Moncada (B), 48 percent, Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (RHP John Lackey): Moncada is just 1-for-13 since getting called up, but that’s not a sample to worry about yet. Not even close, to be honest. Lackey has allowed a .283/.346/.567 line to lefties and only fanning 16 percent. While Moncada is sputtering to start, he isn’t striking out at all, unlike his small sample last year when he fanned 60 percent of the time. He doesn’t need a ton of hits to be high impact because of his speed. He had 17 SBs in the minors this year and Lackey has allowed 9-for-10 base runners this year, though part of that was due to the now-departed Miguel Montero.
Third base
Chris Taylor (R), 68 percent, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins (RHP Jose Berrios): You don’t even need a platoon advantage against Colon this year. Righties are destroying him with a .360/.398/.587 line including six homers in 165 PA. Taylor is having a breakout season and while it is fueled by his 1.055 OPS against lefties, he’s still doing damage against righties with an .871 mark that includes nine of his 12 HR and 10 of his 12 SB in 227 PA. Taylor is a pick up and hold candidate, too. He’s still on just 66 percent of ESPN rosters despite being one of just seven players with 12+ HR and SB. Of those seven, just three have a .300+ AVG, too: Taylor .310, Paul Goldschmidt .310, and Jose Altuve .352.
Shortstop
Orlando Arcia (R), 29 percent, Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals (LHP Gio Gonzalez): I’ve been recommending Arcia a lot lately, but he’s justifying it by continuing to hit. He’s got a solid .277/.363/.403 line against lefties with a 12 percent walk rate. Over his last 200 total at-bats, he as a .325/.362/.450 line with 5 HR and 7 SB. Gonzalez has been fantastic this year, but a lot of it is driven by a suffocation of lefties (.474 OPS). Righties are toting a .712 OPS with all 15 of the homers and all seven of the steals he’s allowed.
Corner infield
Nicholas Castellanos (R), 45 percent, Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals (LHP Danny Duffy): Castellanos has been crushing the ball all year, but lacked the results usually associated with such pop. His 48 percent hard contact rate is second to only Corey Seager among 168 qualified hitters. He is finally starting to get some dividends from the power with 5 HR in both June and July as well as a .933 OPS this month. Lefties get the brunt of his strength, yielding a .947 OPS and nine of his 14 HR. Duffy hasn’t been as dominant as 2016 and it’s due in large part to his work against righties: .287/.345/.433 and six of his seven homers allowed.
Middle infield
Chase Utley (L), 1 percent, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins (RHP Jose Berrios): Looking to pick on Colon a couple times today. Sorry, Big Sexy. Lefties are popping him for a .324/.370/.528 line with 5 HR in 154 PA. Colon probably deserves better than the 8.19 ERA he has this year, but the Dodgers are unlikely to start the regression toward his 4.88 FIP. Utley isn’t doing a ton this year, but it’s all been against righties with a .745 OPS and his full allotment of HR and SB (3 apiece) in 223 PA.
Outfield
Joc Pederson (L), 25 percent, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins (RHP Jose Berrios): Pederson completes our Dodgers trio. He still maintains his value by way of righties so getting a lower end one is a great opportunity for him. He has a .250/.370/.481 line against them with 8 HR in 192 PA. He doesn’t get to bat high in the order as much as he used to, but it’s hard to have a bad spot in the Dodgers lineup.
David Peralta (L), 38 percent, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves (RHP Mike Foltynewicz): Peralta has returned from a lost 2016 (48 games, .728 OPS) and he’s back to bashing righties with an .873 OPS, though he’s not as susceptible to lefties relievers this year with an .815 OPS and two homers in 63 PA. Folty’s line against lefties is almost identical to Peralta’s against righties. Folty has allowed a .312/.375/.505 while Peralta has a .327/.375/.500. He also bats high in the order and rakes at home.
Rajai Davis (R), 10 percent, Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays (RHP Cesar Valdez): I’m not going to pretend there’s any real batting upside to this one. It’s purely a steals play. After going just 6-for-10 on the bases through May, Davis is 13-for-14 since June 1st. If you need an infusion of speed, Davis remains a viable asset.
Hitter matchup ratings
Notes: Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s history (three years’ worth, as well as the past 21 days) and ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1 to 10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, whereas a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.