The head-to-head value-add calculator, HVaC for short, calculates a player’s score using projected plate appearances from Fangraphs to determine how many home runs, runs, RBI and steals a player will generate and measure it against a hits-per-plate appearance metric.
When all factored together – value per plate appearance, standard deviation from the mean and category weights based on percentage of total – we get this week’s fantasy baseball players to watch:
Three up
Ben Zobrist
Coming back from the DL, Zobrist has been strong. For owners, the good news is that he is still available in about 15 percent of leagues. Zobrist has shown the ability to be a guy that can hit 20 home runs and hit double-digits in steals. In addition to adding positional flexibility, Zobrist has the track record to be a strong performer over the rest of the season.
The HVaC likes him to be a top-15 player at second base and even a top-50 player in the outfield, making him a worthy starter in both respects.
Nori Aoki
While far from the sexiest name available, Aoki can provide value and that is shown with him entering the week as the number 61 outfielder the rest of the season. In addition to not striking out very often, Aoki has shown the ability to hit near .290, not terribly far off from his .310 mark currently even if a little regression may be in the forecast.
Owners will also love his speed. With 11 steals in 49 games, the outfielder should be a legitimate threat to close in on 30 steals which would bring with it nearly 75 runs scored overall. The runs, steals, and average all put him north of the mean and make him worth the add.
Josh Hamilton
By the numbers, Hamilton is a top-40 outfielder and should be owned in every format. His ownership has jumped 30 points this week, but he is still available in 25 percent of leagues. That should not be the case for a player possessing the ability to get to 20 home runs.
Three down
Nick Hundley
With recent injuries, there seems to be a run to find catching help. Hundley just is not the guy to be running to. His projections across all five categories put him to the wrong side of the bell curve and leave him barely inside the top-20 overall at the position. Owners have been grabbing him, pushing his numbers up 12 points in just the last week. His .368 BABIP is keeping his average at .313 yet he hit just .243 last season and .233 the year before. Home run totals in the low-teens will be acceptable, but the rate will slow given his ISO of .180 through the month of May. Buyer beware.
D.J. LeMahieu
With a 15 point jump in ownership in the last seven days, fantasy owners seem to be buying the .335 average the infielder has put up through the first two months of the season. Yet they are ignoring the fact it comes with a .383 BABIP. He hovers south of the mean in every category outside of steals and represents a full deviation when it comes to runs and H/PA. LeMahieu has also been moved up to the second spot in the order of late, but that has more to do with other players getting rest than it does a true change in the lineup. The other concern? He is swinging less often and at better pitchers, but making contact at the same rate. Keep him on the sidelines.
Mike Napoli
While there is no doubt that Napoli will bring power to the table, the downside in other categories will temper this pop. With a high strikeout rate that offsets a BABIP we have seen in the low to mid-.300’s, Napoli finds himself to the left side of the bell curve in three categories. Napoli struggles to produce runs simply because he is not on base enough. Far too many of his RBI come off the bat of home runs, making him unable to produce at the expected level for the position. Overall Napoli is outside the top-20 at first base, leaving owners with plenty of other options to capture home runs and avoid the mini-run we are seeing that has pushed his ownership up this week.
