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Let’s get to today’s interesting facts, using DraftKings prices. There are 12 games on the night slate - we’ll skip the three-game early set of Astros-Diamondbacks, Padres-Mariners and Rangers-Indians. Please note that much of the information in this post is being published several hours prior to game times, so check MLB lineups later to confirm that any recommended players are included.
5 Things to Watch:
1. Jake Arrieta ($13,000) is a -230 favorite against the 23rd-ranked Dodger lineup (.302 wOBA) … Jose Fernandez ($12,400) has averaged 35.2 DraftKings points over his last four starts, but draws the Pirates … Mets lefty Steven Matz ($11,100) has been terrific lately, averaging 29.5 DK points over his last four starts, and gets the White Sox at home as a -178 favorite.
2. For a more reasonably priced SP, consider Mike Leake ($7,600). Leake has righted the ship after a rough start, averaging 20.7 DK points over his last four games. He faces a slightly below average Brewer lineup that strikes out more than any team in the majors … Eduardo Rodriguez ($6,100) makes his 2016 debut for the Red Sox, but you’ll want to avoid him vs. the scary Orioles.
3. Yo, BvPers: David Ortiz ($5,500) is six-for-13 with two homers and a 1.687 OPS vs. Kevin Gausman … Matt Carpenter ($5,000) is 16-for-35 with three homers vs. Wily Peralta … Jonathan Lucroy ($4,400) is 15-for-32 vs. Leake … Carlos Beltran ($4,000) has three homers in 30 at bats vs. J.A. Happ.
4. Your biggest weather issues are with Reds-Rockies and Rays-Royals, both of which have forecasts that feature rain chances of higher than 50 percent at gametime. Weather.com calls for a 90 percent chance of thunderstorms in Denver at 8 p.m., so you’ll want to have an alternate plan for your Rockies stack.
5. Bargain hunters: Cubs C David Ross ($2,400) has 36 DK points over his last three games, and has a 1.261 OPS in 30 plate appearances vs. LHP … For $2,900, Mark Teixeira is worth a look vs. Happ, even if he hasn’t done much to earn your trust this season … Orioles 2B Jonathan Schoop ($2,800) might bat sixth or higher again, and has more power than most at his position … If Rays 3B/SS Taylor Motter ($2,900) bats near the top of the order vs. Dillon Gee, he’ll be worth a look … Justin Upton has been terrible, but for $2,900 vs. Hector Santiago? Maybe? … Byron Buxton ($2,300) is expected to rejoin the Twins tonight, and has a soft matchup vs. Eric Surkamp, but let’s see where he hits in the order.
Adam Meyer will post his Must-Start of the Day, Deal of the Day, Avoid of the Day, Stack of the Day and more later today!
Yesterday’s recap:
The Astros were the stack of the day and they produced eight runs. These player suggestions homered on Monday: Adam Duvall (twice!), Joey Votto, Jake Lamb, and Gregory Polanco.
Must-Start of the day: Adam Duvall, CIN
Duvall is loving this road trip. He’s hit four home runs in the past four games and went yard twice last night at Coors Field. He gets another game in Colorado tonight. With his price tag still reasonable, I’d add him on all DFS sites for Tuesday.
Deal of the day: Dillon Gee, KC
On DraftKings, Gee is priced at $4,800. Ridiculous low! Also, Gee has struck out at least five batters in three-straight starts and he gets a punch out prone Rays lineup tonight.
Avoid of the day: Jose Bautista, TOR
He is 4-34 (.118) with 10 strikeouts against CC Sabathia.
Stack of the day: St. Louis Cardinals
Any teams playing in Coors Field are great, but expensive. The Cardinals face Wily Peralta, which is almost like playing at Coors Field (sorry, Peralta). Matt Carpenter, Aledmys Diaz, and Matt Holliday can be great additions to your DFS lineup.
Starting pitchers:
Jose Fernandez, MIA – He has at least nine strikeouts in four-straight outings and Fernandez is 4-1 at home this season.
Aaron Nola, PHI – Last night, Jeremy Hellickson had a solid outing against the Nats and, hopefully, Nola can copy and paste that performance tonight. Nola has at least six strikeouts in three consecutive starts. Bryce Harper might get the day off, too.
Dillon Gee, KC – “Deal of the day”
Catchers:
Jonathan Lucroy, MIL – He is 15-32 (.469) in his career against Mike Leake.
Evan Gattis, HOU – He has a .263 ISO and .411 wOBA against lefties this season.
First basemen:
David Ortiz, BOS – He has a .422 ISO against righties and is 6-13 (.462) in his career against Kevin Gausman.
Joey Votto, CIN – He has a .220 ISO against righties this year.
Chris Davis, BAL – He has a .318 wOBA against southpaws this season.
Edwin Encarnacion, TOR – He has a .233 ISO against lefties in 2016.
Brandon Moss, STL – He has a .320 ISO against righties this year.
Second basemen:
Jose Altuve, HOU – He has a .237 ISO and a .440 wOBA against southpaws in 2016.
Robinson Cano, SEA – He is 37-90 (.411) with 16 extra-base hits against James Shields.
Starlin Castro, NYY – He has a .185 ISO against lefties this year.
Third basemen:
Josh Donaldson, TOR – He has a .298 ISO and a .458 wOBA against southpaws this season.
Matt Carpenter, STL – He is 16-35 (.457) with seven extra-base hits against Wily Peralta.
Alex Rodriguez, NYY – He has a .324 ISO against lefties this year.
Shortstops:
Zack Cozart, CIN – He occupies the leadoff spot for Cincy and has a .192 ISO against righties this year.
Aledmys Dias, STL – He has a cheap price and is batting second for St. Louis.
Outfielders:
Adam Duvall, CIN – He has a .350 ISO against righties this season.
George Springer, HOU – He has a .200 ISO and a .373 wOBA against lefties this year.
Mark Trumbo, BAL – He has a .463 ISO against lefties this season.
Jackie Bradley Jr., BOS – He has a .416 wOBA against righties this year.
Jay Bruce, CIN – He has a .271 ISO against righties in 2016.
Matt Holliday, STL – He has a 266 ISO against righties this year.
Ezequiel Carrera, TOR – He has a .211 ISO and a .552 wOBA against left-handed pitchers this season.
Charlie Blackmon, COL – He has a .346 wOBA against righties.
Carlos Gonzalez, COL – He has a .181 ISO against righties.
Gerardo Parra, COL – Jon Moscot has allowed left-handed hitters to have a .357 wOBA against him.
