Fantasy Baseball: April trends that won’t continue – CBSSports.com

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It’s May, you know, which means at least one thing:

We can no longer use the excuse “it’s only April.”

A quick survey of the leaderboards, though, tells us the excuse was justified. Even now, there’s still plenty of statistical weirdness going on — or April nonsense, as I like to call it so as not to confuse it with April Fools. Nope, that’s those of us who actually fall for it.

But wait, isn’t any of it legitimate?

Well …

• Justin Upton is on pace for 263 strikeouts and 13 home runs. Trevor Story is on pace for 259 strikeouts and 64 home runs. They’re batting .242 and .250, which is closer than you’d think given that so many more of Story’s hits have overshot the defense. His batting average worries me more precisely because he has needed an astronomical home run rate just to achieve what little he has, but I’ll go out on a limb and say neither finishes with 263 strikeouts or even 259, which would set a new record by more than 30.

• Upton, by the way, had two consecutive months, June and July, when he was as bad as he was this April and finished with more or less his usual numbers, so yeah, streak city for him. He’s already showing signs of turning it around.
• Have you taken a gander at the RBI leaders? It’s not the most predictive of stats, so maybe not, but it does of course still count in Fantasy. And the names are mostly what you’d expect — players with five home runs or more, basically — until you reach No. 10, where Nick Markakis, with his combined three home runs the last two years (none this year), is tied with three others. It’s rare enough to see a non-power hitter do something like that, but particularly one who has batted mostly leadoff for the worst offense in baseball. Markakis has driven in one-fourth of all the runs the Braves have scored this year. That, friends and neighbors, won’t stand, so while I do think Markakis is generally undervalued in Head-to-Head points leagues, he ain’t the top-25 outfielder he appears to be now.
• How about the wins leaderboard, huh? There’s a non-predictive stat that nonetheless has a monster impact on Fantasy production. Let’s see … Chris Sale is No. 1 with six. Jake Arrieta, Rick Porcello and Jordan Zimmermann are all tied for second with five. Reasonable enough so far. But of the 10 tied with four, one name in particular stands out: Erasmo Ramirez, who has made all of one start this season and, given the way Blake Snell’s debut went, may not make another. It’s enough to make him the 42nd-best pitcher in Head-to-Head points leagues — ahead of Cole Hamels, for one — and give him an ownership rate of 42 percent, which makes me want to bury my face in my pillow. This is why you shouldn’t base starting pitcher decisions on season production to date. Some of the least predictive stats carry some of the most weight.

• You may have heard the Cubs are far and away the best team in baseball. With their 18 wins (to only six losses) already, you’d think they’d be giving their closer ample save opportunities, and yet Hector Rondon has gotten only four. He converted all of them, so that’s good, but it leaves him with fewer than Jeremy Jeffress of the 10-15 Brewers, Andrew Miller of the 8-15 Yankees and Luke Gregerson of the 8-18 Astros, to name a few. Law of averages, right? Except that the Cubs’ Pythagorean win-loss record, which estimates team performance based on runs scored and runs allowed, is 20-4. That’s right: Their 18-6 record doesn’t do their dominance justice. A closer for them is superfluous.
• Russell Martin’s 31 strikeouts so far put him on pace for 186, which is particularly alarming because a critical component of his value is his ability to make contact, having whiffed 100 or more times only twice in his career. He hasn’t been at full health lately, playing through some neck stiffness, which offers some hope that it’s an early-season fluke. The most plausible explanation otherwise would be an age thing, which isn’t so correctable.
• I think if you polled a bunch of Fantasy Baseball owners and asked if they were pleased with Maikel Franco’s production so far, they’d probably say yes. But I think if you polled those same owners and asked if they were pleased with Kyle Seager’s production, considering his .167 batting average so far, they’d probably say no. You may be surprised to learn, then, that Seager has actually outscored Franco in Head-to-Head points leagues to date, benefiting from the Mariners’ superior supporting cast (he has 28 combined runs and RBI to Franco’s 22) and his own superior plate discipline. Granted, Franco’s .250 batting average has room to improve as well, but it can’t possibly improve as much as Seager’s will. O-ver-rate-d?

• Here are the shortstops who have outscored presumptive No. 1 Carlos Correa in Head-to-Head points leagues so far: Trevor Story, Aledmys Diaz, Jean Segura, Xander Bogaerts, Eugenio Suarez and — here are the real shockers — Ian Desmond, who was batting .109 and on everyone’s drop list just two weeks ago, and Jordy Mercer, who … who? It’s even worse in Rotisserie leagues, where Zack Cozart and Jonathan Villar enter the picture. I don’t say any of this to scare Correa owners — the 21-year-old is on a near 20-20 pace and reaching base at a .383 clip — but dang, things are topsy-turvy at shortstop right now. I’d be more concerned about putting too much faith in one of those players who ranks ahead of him.
• Elvis Andrus is barely a top-20 shortstop in both formats, and the amazing part is he could fall from there. He has accomplished that ranking with a .309 batting average (his career high is .286) and 81-RBI pace (his career high, being a non-power hitter, is 67). Meanwhile, he’s 0 for 3 in stolen bases, which is all anybody wants from him in Fantasy, and has been declining in that area for a few years now. Gulp.
• Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who’s now batting just .233, is still the No. 3 catcher in Rotisserie leagues because of that crazy power surge where he homered six times in his first 12 games. Oh, and John Buck followed up his nine-homer April in 2013 with only six the rest of the way. Saltalamacchia, likewise, figures to sink like a rock, especially with James McCann due back from a sprained ankle Tuesday.
• Buster Posey actually has three catchers within two points of him in standard Head-to-Head leagues, where his advantage goes beyond pure production with all the extra playing time he gets. The names hanging with him are the real surprise, though. Welington Castillo, while not a prized commodity a month ago, at least makes sense because of the home run binge, and he has enough power to hang around the top 10 all year. But the other two — Yadier Molina and Francisco Cervelli — haven’t a one home run between them. Cervelli’s ranking is all plate discipline, and while that’s a strength for him, his 107-walk pace certainly won’t last. Molina is hitting like it’s 2013, and after his thumb issues of the last two years, I could see him mattering in this format all year.

• Among full-time hitters, 12 still have a BABIP over .400, but most of them have similarly cartoonish batting averages. (You weren’t counting on Nick Castellanos hitting .361 all year, were you?) One glaring exception: Miguel Sano, who’s batting .261 despite an unsustainable .404 BABIP. Or … wait. He had a .396 BABIP during his time in the majors last year, and nobody seemed too bent out of shape about it this spring. His strikeout rate is actually down so far, if only slightly, and his home run pace, despite a recent turnaround, is still lagging. An improved home run rate would raise his batting average without impacting BABIP, so then … I’m saying his batting average will improve despite a .404 BABIP? Really?
• OK, here’s a more traditional application of BABIP: Travis Shaw’s is .419, which is a concern because much of his value is driven by his not-quite-cartoonish .322 batting average. He strikes out too much to sustain much better than last year’s .270 mark, and since he’s on pace for only 19 home runs, I don’t think he’s any better than, say, Trevor Plouffe in the long run.
• The Nos. 1 and 2 first basemen in Head-to-Head points leagues (Anthony Rizzo and Paul Goldschmidt) are both batting less than .240, which shows you the value of walks in that format. Brandon Belt, himself on a 120-walk pace, is No. 3 even though his power production is virtually identical to last year’s. And who’s No. 4? Why, none other than Chris Carter, who has shown us only his good side so far with a position-leading 17 extra-base hits. We’ve done this dance with him enough times to know he’s hitting .220 in the long run.
• Speaking of walks, Joe Mauer has a whopping 21 of them against nine strikeouts, making him eighth-best in that format despite one home run and eight RBI. Even with a (likely unsustainable) .337 batting average, far and away his best category, he’s only the 21st-best in Rotisserie leagues, for comparison, which seems a more appropriate gauge of his value. Only five hitters walked more than 100 times last year, so particularly in that category, the paces we’re seeing are simply too good to be true.

• Why is that? Well, look at some of the walk rates for some of our most trusted strike-throwers. Chris Archer at 4.2 per nine innings makes some sense because of his past control issues, but Felix Hernandez is at 5.0 per nine. Cole Hamels is at 4.5. Jose Fernandez and Dallas Keuchel are both 4.4. Madison Bumgarner is 3.3. Even Max Scherzer, whose rate of 2.8 walks per nine innings isn’t alarming at face value, is still well over last year’s rate of 1.3 per nine. I think it goes back to Archer’s explanation of his struggles: that he didn’t throw his slider, his most important secondary pitch, enough this spring. Established pitchers like these don’t break out their full arsenals until the bell rings, so they need some time to get in midseason form. If you’re worried about your one ace, whoever it is, rest assured you’re not alone.
• Albert Pujols has a .160 BABIP. Granted, his is always lower than average, but one that low is almost implausible. Seeing as he has the 19th-lowest strikeout rate of any qualifying hitter and six home runs already, I think he’ll be just fine.
• Logan Morrison is batting .094, which is nonsensical in a law-of-averages sort of way. But the bigger surprise is he has done it in 64 at-bats. Kevin Cash hasn’t turned the page yet. What has this guy done to earn such a leash? I believe in the law of averages, but I don’t believe in Morrison enough to wipe Steve Pearce from my memory.
• Joey Votto’s .231 batting average and .668 OPS may look weak, but according to FanGraphs.com, he has the highest hard contact rate of his entire hall of fame-caliber career. He’s pulling the ball more than usual and not elevating it enough, but he’s still seeing a ton of pitches, has yet to fly out to the infield and, above all, is hitting the ball really hard. You get the feeling this is all part of his master plan and pretty soon he’ll quit toying with us, abandon whatever experiment he’s conducting and get back to business.

• Victor Martinez is on pace for a .350 batting average 33 home runs, 121 RBI, 1.071 OPS and only 60 strikeouts, which seems like something out of a comic book but actually looks an awful lot like the .335 batting average, 32 home runs, 103 RBI and 42 strikeouts he delivered in 2014, when he finished second in AL MVP voting. And considering he’s batting .365 with four homers in 63 at-bats from the left side, which was the one ruined for him coming off knee surgery last year, I’m thinking these numbers might be the most sustainable of any featured in this column.
• Xander Bogaerts, who was drafted in anticipation of a power breakthrough, has only one home run this season, yet in both formats, he’s a top-five player at an unexpectedly crowded shortstop position. That’s because he’s a perfect 5 for 5 in stolen bases after collecting just 10 — his most at any stop, in any season — last year. I’m not sure that’s the sort of profile change we can rely on.
• Josh Harrison hasn’t been a big base stealer in the past, topping out at 18 during his breakthrough 2014, but like Bogaerts he’s 5 for 5 so far, which puts him on a 31-steal pace. And like Bogaerts, the power may not be enough to sustain Harrison in standard mixed leagues if his steals pace slows to something a little closer to normal.
• Eric Hosmer has put the on-again, off-again pattern of the last few years behind him and is having his best season yet, on pace for 25 home runs and 19 stolen bases. And while we’ve been faked out by him at times in the past, the more curious numbers to me than his .337 batting average (which, granted, is driven by an unsustainable .373 BABIP), are his 11 runs and nine RBI. How can he hit as well as has and only be on pace for 71 runs and 58 RBI? Is it possible he’s underrated?

• Mookie Betts has used an improved stolen base rate (he’s 6 for 6 so far) to conceal what’s a disturbing development plate discipline-wise. He’s on pace for 142 strikeouts to 32 walks — a gap of more than 100 — after having 113 strikeouts to 67 walks over the first two years of his career (197 games). Plate discipline was a big part of the attraction — the reason so many of us anticipated a .300 batting average from him — and I’m hopeful it’s an early-season phenomenon. He has six strikeouts to four walks over his past 12 games, after all.
• You know what I’m hopeful isn’t an early-season phenomenon? Odubel Herrera’s 23 walks. It seems crazy considering he had 28 as a full-timer last year, but of all the things a hitter could consciously decide to change, how often he walks would seem to be second only to how often he runs — which, by the way, he does enough so as not to make for another Nick Markakis situation. I don’t know that you can count on him being the No. 13 outfielder all year, though.
• Lorenzo Cain’s .231 batting average wouldn’t seem like more than an issue of sample size this early in the season if he had a correct proportion of extra-base hits. But so far, no doubles and no triples after delivering a combined total of 40 last year — and yeah, he’s not on pace for another 16-homer season either. It still may be nothing more than April weirdness, but late bloomer that he was a year ago, age 30 isn’t too early for a regression. His strikeout rate, it’s worth noting, is way up.
• Who leads the majors in WHIP? Why, Drew Smyly with a 0.69 mark. Here’s the problem: No one had a WHIP better than 0.84 last year. That was Zack Greinke, who along with Clayton Kershaw, Jake Arrieta and Max Scherzer, delivered four of the top 40 WHIPs of the last 40 years. Unless you think Smyly is that good, some regression is coming, and because he’s so susceptible to home runs, having allowed five already, it’s going to have a compound impact on his ERA, which already stands at 2.60. I think the strikeouts are mostly legit and he’s a huge Fantasy asset, but if his ERA rises a full run rest of way, it wouldn’t surprise me.