Fantasy baseball daily notes for July 12, 2015 — pitcher rankings, batter … – ESPN

Starting pitcher projected Game Scores for July 12
					2015 Statistics			Past 21 Days
GS	Team	Name	T	Opp	W-L	ERA	WHIP	W-L	ERA	WHIP
71		Max Scherzer	R	@Bal	9-7	2.12	0.80	2-2	2.70	0.57
69		Corey Kluber	R	Oak	4-9	3.45	1.13	1-1	3.14	1.08
69		Johnny Cueto	R	@Mia	6-5	2.61	0.87	2-1	1.17	0.57
67		Francisco Liriano	L	StL	5-6	2.99	1.01	1-1	3.16	1.17
66		Jake Arrieta	R	CWS	9-5	2.80	1.05	3-0	1.17	0.75
65		Sonny Gray	R	@Cle	9-3	2.20	1.01	1-0	4.15	1.46
60		Taijuan Walker	R	LAA	7-6	4.53	1.27	3-0	3.20	0.79
57		Lance McCullers	R	@TB	4-2	2.16	1.10	1-0	1.50	1.28
56		Alex Wood	L	@Col	6-5	3.34	1.41	2-1	3.10	1.38
55		Tyson Ross	R	@Tex	5-7	3.56	1.45	2-0	2.35	1.00
55		Jose Quintana	L	@ChC	4-8	3.69	1.30	1-1	2.67	1.04
55		Yovani Gallardo	R	SD	7-7	2.67	1.20	1-1	1.08	1.16
54		Brett Anderson	L	Mil	5-5	3.12	1.31	3-1	2.16	1.20
53		Jonathon Niese	L	Ari	4-8	3.58	1.42	1-1	1.29	1.14
53		Andrew Heaney	L	@Sea	2-0	1.77	0.84	2-0	1.77	0.84
51		Matt Moore	L	Hou	0-0	8.00	2.11	0-0	8.00	2.11
51		Chris Heston	R	Phi	8-5	3.51	1.21	1-0	2.21	1.03
50		Dan Haren	R	Cin	6-5	3.34	1.06	0-1	4.08	1.36
49		Tim Cooney	L	@Pit	0-0	3.95	1.32	0-0	2.38	0.88
49		Wade Miley	L	NYY	8-7	4.50	1.44	2-1	3.38	1.58
49		Rubby De La Rosa	R	@NYM	6-4	4.89	1.27	0-1	4.58	1.25
48		Wei-Yin Chen	L	Wsh	4-4	2.82	1.10	1-0	2.57	1.00
47		Shane Greene	R	@Min	4-6	5.82	1.40	—	—	—
47		Nathan Eovaldi	R	@Bos	8-2	4.45	1.53	3-0	2.38	1.15
46		Edinson Volquez	R	Tor	8-4	3.40	1.22	2-0	4.43	1.39
45		Chad Billingsley	R	@SF	1-2	6.67	1.70	1-0	6.55	1.82
45		Kyle Lohse	R	@LAD	5-10	6.29	1.43	2-2	5.79	1.50
43		Kyle Gibson	R	Det	7-6	3.04	1.24	3-1	2.10	1.21
41		Chad Bettis	R	Atl	4-4	4.95	1.40	2-2	7.52	1.72
38		Felix Doubront	L	@KC	1-0	2.00	1.11	1-0	2.00	1.11
GS: The pitcher’s projected “Game Score,” from Bill James’ original formula, which accounts for past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. A Game Score of 50 typically is typically regarded a quality start; anything over 70 is exceptional, anything under 30 poor. A “*” means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate projected Game Score; these are the author’s projections. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher’s opponent for the day. W-L: Pitcher’s win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher’s earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher’s average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.

Elite

Remember back in 2013 when Max Scherzer‘s record was 21-3? Apparently Lady Luck waited a year to enact her revenge, as Scherzer deserves a better mark than the 9-7 record he takes into the last game before the All-Star break. Reaching double digits will be a challenge as Scherzer faces the dangerous Baltimore Orioles in Camden Yards. On the other hand, the Orioles fan the third most in the league against right-handers, so if Scherzer can keep the big bats in the yard, it could be another big strikeout day. The risky nature of this potentially high-strikeout affair makes Scherzer the top tournament play among the elite.

Ideally, the preference is for cash game anchors to be working at home but when Johnny Cueto has a date with the Miami Marlins in South Beach, exceptions are made. The Fish sport a low .292 weighted on-base average (wOBA) versus right-handers, along with a strikeout rate a bit above league average. The safety of this encounter and the strikeout potential render Cueto the top-tier cash game play of the day.

Jake Arrieta comes in a close second to Cueto as a cash game option and will enjoy the home-field bump in the wrap-up of an interleague series with their cross-town rivals. The Chicago White Sox tote an offense a little below average versus righties into Wrigley Field. It likely won’t be a huge strikeout effort for Arrieta, but he should go deep into the affair with about a whiff an inning, which is just fine for cash play.

It was very surprising to discover the St. Louis Cardinals have overtaken the Colorado Rockies for the distinction of whiffing the most against left-handed pitching in the league. Next up for the Redbirds is no picnic, as they conclude a set in the Steel City against Francisco Liriano. The comfort of pitcher-friendly PNC Park along with the strikeout upside make the Pittsburgh Pirates southpaw a dual cash game-tournament threat.

Corey Kluber sees Scherzer’s bad luck and pushes all-in. Granted, he’s not quite as dominating as he was last season and wins are fluky, but four wins when you’ve tossed 12 quality starts in 18 outings is light. We can discuss the real-life validity of a win all day, but so long as it’s an integral element of DFS scoring, it needs to be considered in analysis. Kluber’s lack of wins is a result of paltry run support, a meek 2.43 runs per game. Going forward, expecting normal run support is proper, but unfortunately expectations for the finale before the break are low with Sonny Gray opposing Kluber in Progressive Field. With so many other quality options in the upper tier, both Kluber and Gray are best left on the sidelines in DFS play.

Solid

Don’t let one rough outing detract from the great strides Taijuan Walker has made since the beginning of the season. He’s using a windup delivery virtually the same as his motion from the stretch which has done wonders for maintaining a consistent release point and has vastly improved his control. The matchup is formidable as the suddenly productive Los Angeles Angels close out a weekend series in Safeco Field, but this, along with Walker’s last poor outing, should keep usage low, propelling him into tournament consideration.

The rest of the middle tier is filled with viable DFS options. To save some bandwidth so we can give the streamers their due, Yovani Gallardo, Brett Anderson, Jonathon Niese, Matt Moore and Chris Heston are all solid plays.

Streamers

Seasonal players, make sure you check your rules. Some head-to-head leagues incorporate the short post-break weekend set into this week’s scoring. This could affect your desperation level as you’re trying to capture the victory this scoring period. As usual, your situation dictates how much risk you need to take.

Hot Spots

Run-scoring should be low and the Pittsburgh Pirates fan at a high rate versus southpaws, so Tim Cooney, left-hander for the St. Louis Cardinals, is safe for ratio support and some whiffs.

Rubby De La Rosa is inconsistent but he does miss bats and the New York Mets are league-average versus righties. The game is at Citi Field, which depresses scoring and reduces the risk, in case the wild De La Rosa shows up.

Wade Miley is also very inconsistent but has the platoon edge over the top of the New York Yankees order, and Fenway Park actually hinders power, though it boosts runs. At worst, those chasing a win can deploy Miley for a home date with Nate Eovaldi on the other side. The same analysis holds true for Eovaldi but he’s more of a risk.

The win will be tough with Max Scherzer as his mound foe, but if you need whiffs, Wei-Yin Chen should be able to punch out a few Washington Nationals at Camden Yards.

Need a shot at a win? The Detroit Tigers are giving Shane Greene another chance. While the young right-hander may have been a spring sleeper, he really struggled early on. Kyle Gibson has a low Game Score but facing Greene in Target Field, he’s a reasonable option for the elusive W.

You’re on your own with the rest. Desperate times call for desperate measures and using Greene, Edinson Volquez against the Blue Jays, Chad Billingsley, Kyle Lohse, Chad Bettis or Felix Doubrount qualifies as desperate.