Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks: April 28 – Wall Street Journal (blog)

• By
• Michael Salfino

The Methodology: As hard as it is to project a player’s performance in any given season, projecting his performance on any single day is even more difficult. Daily fantasy baseball is all about trying to maximize each day’s matchups using historic batter vs. pitcher performance, platoon advantages and the ballpark. Using prices at FanDuel, we’re making the lineup recommendations every Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday (when all teams are generally playing) based on a combination of key metrics. But always check your lineups and the current weather.

We grade pitchers in 23 statistics in eight broad categories: working ahead in count, command, finishing off hitters, off-speed effectiveness, overall effectiveness, dominance, efficiency and battle tendency (such as getting guys out when behind in the count). The stats are compiled by Major League Baseball analytics provider Inside-Edge. As the season progresses, last year’s stats matter less and less until they eventually disappear.

The hitting slate is generally determined by choosing the hitters who Inside-Edge grades as hitting the ball hard most frequently this year and who are also going against the pitchers who have the lowest composite grade that day. Platoon advantages (lefty vs. righty and vice versa) and ballpark factors are also considered.

NOTE: Every one knows that guys like Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw are good plays, so we will only provide underpriced, value picks, which will free up more cap room for the high-priced options.

APRIL 28: PITCHER

Michael Wacha, Cardinals (vs. Phillies, $8,400): He’s been one of the best pitchers so far this year, with a report card grade of 95 on a scale where 100 is perfect. Wacha faces a starter making his big-league debut, marginal prospect Severino Gonzalez, and a Phillies lineup that is scoring a league-low 2.65 runs per game. Unfortunately the Phillies don’t strike out that much (seventh-lowest K rate), but Wacha’s Cardinals are a 2-1 favorite to win this game and that’s four points on FanDuel. Plus we know that Wacha can dominate, as he had a start last year where he struck out the game’s first nine batters. 

APRIL 28: HITTERS

Brian McCann, C, Yankees (vs. Rays, $2,800): A bargain price in a depleted catching pool, especially when playing in Yankee Stadium. He’ll be facing a very good pitcher in Jake Odorizzi, but also one who has a history of being fly-ball extreme (although Odorizzi’s fly-ball rate has come down a bit early in 2015). We’re just looking for one lazy flyball to land into that short right-field porch.

Daniel Murphy, 2B, Mets (at Marlins, $2,900): He’s made an adjustment by moving closer to the plate and has ripped the ball the last few games, including a game-winning, ninth-inning bomb on Monday night. Murphy, a lefty, has the platoon advantage against mediocre Marlins’ starter David Phelps. There’s always a chance for a steal, too. We’re trying to save enough money to splurge on a couple of stud-hitters with good matchups (my choices are Nelson Cruz and Bryce Harper for a combined $9,100).

Jhonny Peralta, SS, Cardinals (vs. Phillies, $2,800): Why not pick on the first-time starter with a shortstop fairly priced even ignoring tonight’s likely favorable matchup? Peralta is hitting .338 with a couple of bombs and he’s being featured in the middle of the Cardinals lineup. Peralta’s well-hit rate has only been about average 15.5%, but he grades well overall at the plate this year as Inside-Edge’s third-ranked hitting shortstop (behind Jed Lowrie and Jose Iglesias; note that Iglesias on Tuesday is a very attractive $2,400 option in Minnesota against Mike Pelfrey, if you are cash-strapped).

Kris Bryant, 3B, Cubs (vs. Pirates, $3,500): He seems overdue and faces a lefty who does not throw hard in Jeff Locke. Plus ground-ball pitcher (Locke) versus fly-ball hitter is another platoon advantage, generally. The rookie is fairly priced relative to his scoring without even hitting a homer yet and the homers are coming.

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