Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks: April 29 – Wall Street Journal (blog)

• By
• Michael Salfino

The Methodology: As hard as it is to project a player’s performance in any given season, projecting his performance on any single day is even more difficult. Daily fantasy baseball is all about trying to maximize each day’s matchups using historic batter vs. pitcher performance, platoon advantages and the ballpark. Using prices at FanDuel, we’re making the lineup recommendations every Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday (when all teams are generally playing) based on a combination of key metrics. But always check your lineups and the current weather.

We grade pitchers in 23 statistics in eight broad categories: working ahead in count, command, finishing off hitters, off-speed effectiveness, overall effectiveness, dominance, efficiency and battle tendency (such as getting guys out when behind in the count). The stats are compiled by Major League Baseball analytics provider Inside-Edge. As the season progresses, last year’s stats matter less and less until they eventually disappear.

The hitting slate is generally determined by choosing the hitters who Inside-Edge grades as hitting the ball hard most frequently this year and who are also going against the pitchers who have the lowest composite grade that day. Platoon advantages (lefty vs. righty and vice versa) and ballpark factors are also considered.

NOTE: Every one knows that guys like Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw are good plays, so we will only provide underpriced, value picks, which will free up more cap room for the high-priced options.

APRIL 29: PITCHER (night games only)

Carlos Martinez, Cardinals (Phillies, $8,500): Back to the well after a somewhat disappointing outing yesterday by Michael Wacha. But the fundamentals for picking a Cardinals pitcher against this Phillies lineup, still the league’s lowest scoring team, remain sound. Martinez seems to have blossomed and is thus far one of Inside-Edge’s highest graded pitchers with a report card grade of 94 on a scale where 100 is perfect. Unfortunately, his opponent, Aaron Harang, is THE highest graded-pitcher based only on 2015 performance. But we probably have enough data on Harang to know what he is at the point, an innings eater.

Gerrit Cole, Pirates (at Cubs, $8,800): If you have a few more bucks to spare, Cole is possibly the best pitcher in baseball right now, finally fully realizing his enormous expectations out of UCLA when he was the No. 1 overall pick in the MLB Draft. Cole is a ground-ball and strikeout specialist, making him extremely difficult to score on. The Cubs have the third highest K rate in baseball.

APRIL 29: HITTERS (night games only)

Jhonny Peralta, SS, Cardinals (Phillies, $2,700): A zero-point pick last night but he’s $100 cheaper and is 10-for-30 lifetime with two homers versus Harang. It’s very important in this daily game to not hold grudges and continue to play the percentages.

A.J. Pierzynski, C, Braves (Nationals, $2,600): You must check the lineups when they’re posted at the link above. There’s a good chance that Pierzynski will be out. But he’s hitting .439 with three homers in 41 at bats. Should we play the hot-hand over the broader sample-size? Stanford says that the last 25 at bats for a hitter is a reliable predictor of his next at bat — enough for managers (and for us) to justify playing hot hitters.  If Pierzynski is out, sub in Nick Hundley of the Rockies, who is five-for-12 with a homer lifetime against the pitcher he’ll be facing in Arizona, Josh Collmenter.

Mark Trumbo, OF, Diamondbacks (Rockies, $3,300): He is hitting better than anyone had a right to expect (an 89 on the Inside-Edge 100-point scale) and has three homers in 12 career at bats against today’s starter, Jordan Lyles.

Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies (at Diamondbacks, $3,200): He showed some signs of coming out of his funk before striking out three times yesterday. But we defer to his history against Collmenter — 5-for-12 with two homers and two doubles.

Josh Reddick, OF, A’s (Angels, $3,300): His hitting grade is nearly a perfect 98 this year. And his slash line is .360/.418/.580. Reddick (two homers) has a better chance of going yard against the extreme flyball pitcher he’ll be facing, Matt Shoemaker, who missed his last start due to a personal issue and thus may be rusty.

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