Fantasy Baseball: Friday’s DFS Advice – CBSSports.com
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Baseball is back, and not a second too late. After four days out in the cold we welcome baseball back with a trio of aces and more than a couple excellent value plays.
The interesting thing about Friday night is that unless you use one of the two most expensive hitters you may not feel particularly motivated to find cheap value plays. A vast majority of my top hitters are below $4,000 in cost on FanDuel. Nonetheless, people love the sub-$3,000 play that goes off in a big way, so here are a few that I like on Friday. As always, this is coming out before lineups and cheap players are the most likely to be subject to last minute lineup checks.
As you’ll see below, the Reds are my top stack and just about any hitter in their lineup below $3,000 should be considered. I’m particularly intrigued by Tucker Barnhardt because catcher is a position without a lot of top options I’m interested in.
The Nationals didn’t make the top stacks, but they were close. I would expect Trea Turner to get the start against lefty Francisco Liriano. Turner would have a high probability of multiple times on base with good steal and run potential.
Jarrett Parker should be in the lineup for the Giants against Andrew Cashner. Cashner has gotten crushed this year, and Parker has an OPS over 1.000 vs. RHP.
You don’t have to use all three of these value plays but any two should allow you to play whatever stack you like.
Starting Pitchers
Madison Bumgarner ($11,900, $11,100)
Yes, the Padres have been better against lefties. No, they probably don’t have a shot against Bumgarner. The Giants lefty ace has a 1.94 ERA and the highest K/9 of his career (10.1). This Padres lineup has gotten two cracks at him already this season. They’ve mustered 3 runs on 11 hits while striking out 20 times in 15.2 innings. Bumgarner is easily the top pitcher on DraftKings, but pricing makes it a little bit more interesting on FanDuel.
Carlos Carrasco ($10,400, $12,300)
I rarely discount full season numbers for recent form, but it’s tempting in the case of Carrasco. He got off to s slow start due to a lower body injury but has been lights out as of late. Since June 13 he has a 1.60 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. He’s also struck out 44 over 39.1 innings. The Twins’ recent form has also been better, but there is still a ton of strikeout potential in that lineup.
Anthony DeSclafani ($7,200, $9,600)
Anthony Desclafani has been one of the few bright spots in the Reds rotation this season, and he gets a gem of a matchup against the K-prone Brewers. Milwaukee’s 26.3 percent K rate vs. RHP leads baseball by more than a full percent. As you’ll see below, I expect DeSclafani to get plenty of run support and so does Vegas. DeSclafani is the third biggest favorite of the day.
Stack Attack
Reds vs. Brewers
Matt Garza has thrown 174.2 innings since the start of 2015. He has a 5.62 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. He has only struck out 6.2 batters per nine innings. Garza is the only pitcher over that time frame with at least 170 innings pitched, an ERA over 5.5 and a WHIP of at least 1.6. Joey Votto is the obvious play and so is Jay Bruce. What I find interesting is that Adam Duvall is cheaper than both on FanDual and has been better vs. RHP. Matt Garza, for what it’s worth, has been worse against righties this season.
Indians @ Twins
Santana is coming off of his best start of the season, a shutout against the Athletics. This Indians lineup is so much better. The Indians have the the third highest implied run total and the third highest team ISO vs. RHP. Francisco Lindor and Jason Kipnis are two of my favorite plays. Mike Napoli is the BvP play.
Rockies @ Braves
I rarely choose the Rockies on the road, but this is a fantastic matchup against Lucas Harrell. Harrell has made two good starts this season, but this is a guy that has a career 4.72 ERA. Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon are my favorite plays in this lineup.
Lineups
I’m going to offer my early take on a cash game lineup, but of course you should always check out our Sportsline projections for lineup changes right up to lock. Also, check out our podcast on iTunes for extended thoughts on each slate from Chris Towers, Mike McClure and myself.
FanDuel
P Madison Bumgarner $11,900
C Dioner Navarro $2,800
1B Joey Votto $3,800
2B Brandon Phillips $2,700
3B Adonis Garcia $2,500
SS Trea Turner $2,300
OF Adam Duvall $3,000
OF Stephen Piscotty $3,300
OF Jarrett Parker $2,700
DraftKings
P Madison Bumgarner $11,100
P Patrick Corbin $4,000
C Evan Gattis $3,000
1B Joey Votto $4,600
2B Robinson Cano $4,400
3B Anthony Rendon $3,900
SS Zack Cozart $4,700
OF Jay Bruce $4,3o0
OF Giancarlo Stanton $4,900
OF Adam Duvall $4,800