Often, the best approach in a mock draft can be one you don’t think will work.
Tristan H. Cockcroft has been looking to use the “Modified Labadini” approach in an ESPN Fantasy staff mock draft for a month now, but has been blocked from getting the integral piece of the puzzle by just a pick or two on several occasions.
“Pretty much, it’s Kershaw, 14 hitters and 10 pitchers, and that’s the order you draft ’em in,” Cockcroft explained. “Period.”
This unique approach, built upon leveraging the skills of the best pitcher on the planet while loading up on bats, requires nabbing Kershaw with the top pick. In previous mocks, Tristan has been just one or two spots too deep into the draft order to get the Dodgers’ ace.
In one notable example, our recent two-catcher, 10-team mock, I posted in the chat my disbelief that Kershaw lasted until the seventh pick, and before I could move my mouse to select him, Cockcroft had already shouted (in the chat) “DON’T YOU DARE!”
I did, and his plan was foiled again.
So finally, Tristan got a chance to pick Kershaw with no way of being usurped, but admitted that picking the lefty with the top overall pick is less than ideal. “I’ve found it’s suboptimal to use [Modified Labadini] out of the one; it’d probably be better to enter a standard-league draft drawing the three, four or five spot… It made a big difference in the second round, because whereas I’d loved to get Betts, Bryant, Gordon or Rizzo, the best I could get at 20 was Abreu… and at 21, I couldn’t make the case for anyone but Marte.”
The offense didn’t quite come together as Tristan wanted, but he was happy with how his pitching staff looked using this unique approach. “The whole idea is to stream starters, preserve ratios and go for high-ceiling picks. I got Iglesias, Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances, Patrick Corbin, Taijuan Walker and Yu Darvish.”
Would Tristan go with this approach out of the top spot in an ESPN standard draft again? Probably not. But at least now he knows it’s not the best approach, and he didn’t have to ruin a real team’s roster to find out.
Other observations
What did our other drafters think of their teams and the way the mock unfolded? Here are some quick-hitter thoughts from our team.
Lester the best of the rest?
In a recent mock, Derek Carty remarked how low Jon Lester was being selected in nearly all of our mocks. I checked the numbers and compared him against many pitchers in his tier, and I agree. Lester can usually be selected as the last pitcher in the “not Clayton Kershaw” tier, but he has proven numbers that should slot him in a couple of rounds earlier. Last season he ranked 18th in ESPN’s Player Rater, yet he is the 20th pitcher off the board in ESPN drafts so far this offseason. If he manages a couple of extra wins (last year he only earned 11), that will be enough to move him up closer to the top-10, which would be a steal at his current price.
Approaching middle infield
Part of draft preparation is figuring out which positions and categories can be put off until later, and which you have to target early. Eric Karabell remarked that he “tried something a little different, drafting steals early…” and picking up his power stats and pitchers later in the proceedings. He also noticed that young shortstops like Trea Turner and Trevor Story were available in the last round of this 10-team draft, so waiting to fill the MI spot in an ESPN league is a viable route for those who believe in these up-and-coming players.
That’s good news for those who might miss out on their shortstop targets in the middle rounds, as Dan Szymborski noted that Xander Bogaerts, Troy Tulowitzki, Corey Seager and Francisco Lindor tend to come off the board in a hurry once the second tier of players at that position merit selection. There is a big gap from SS1 (Carlos Correa) down to this tier, and then another big gap to SS6 (Elvis Andrus) in ESPN drafts so far this spring. If you want one of these players, you’re going to need to take a stand early or risk losing out completely.
Taking advantage of the format
Multiple drafters noted the shallow nature of a 10-team mixed league with just one catcher as a key component of their draft strategy.
Derek Carty told me after the draft that he decided upon Aroldis Chapman because of the nature of this format. “He’ll miss the first 30 games due to his suspension, but in a shallow league, it’s easy enough to find a suitable replacement for those games… I took two closers (or near closers) late. Cishek and Bailey give me great replacement options for Chapman.” He selected those two pitchers with two of his last three picks.
Dan Mullen drafted with a deep waiver wire in mind. “Names like Alex Gordon, Nick Castellanos, Jonathan Schoop, Marcell Ozuna and many more,” are available on waivers, meaning he can take chances on riskier players during the draft and simply pick up solid replacements for free from the pool of available players.”If I hit on upside for guys like Troy Tulowitzki, Anthony Rendon, Mike Moustakas, Hyun Soon Kim and Brad Miller, I’m going to have a great team. If any of them don’t work out, I’m likely scooping up capable replacements.” He could even find a breakout star on waivers to replace a failed upside pick from his draft.
How to handle saves
Mullen also noted that the team with the most projected roto points according to ESPN’s draft software was the one drafted by Tom Carpenter… who didn’t draft a closer. “If that owner picked up some better players by not drafting a closer in the mid-rounds and runs into some saves on the waiver wire, we could all be in big trouble.”
That’s exactly how Carpenter told me he approached the draft. “I would rather wait until closers reveal themselves as the season moves along and acquire those I like by shopping away starters and steals to owners in need.” He might not even need to go the trade route if a closer is on waivers, but either way, Tom built a great team while punting one category, and could easily make his team more balanced with just a couple of trades or waiver bids.
Dr. Renee Miller, on the other hand, was left feeling a bit burned by her closer selection. “I didn’t love taking Cody Allen in the 10th round, because Cleveland is a team I’m not sure about getting a lot of save opportunities this season. But there was a run on closers, and I bit.” That’s why punting saves can be a viable strategy, because it prevents a drafter from falling into the trap of taking an apparently solid closer just because there’s a run going at the position.
Draft recap
Below you will find the entirety of our draft, as conducted by our team of fantasy experts and editors. The draft order featured Tristan H. Cockcroft, Leo Howell, Tom Carpenter, Dan Szymborski, Eric Karabell, Dr. Renee Miller, Dan Mullen, Tim Kavanagh, Joe Kaiser and Derek Carty.