A strange thing is happening in the fantasy world. A revolution, of sorts.
Things started to get weird in fantasy football this past season, when the “zero RB” strategy — drafting wide receivers early and waiting on running backs — gained mainstream acceptance. And now it’s creeping into baseball (without the fun, catchy name), as starting pitchers are being taken in the first five rounds of drafts with more frequency than ever before.
Eleven pitchers are being taken in the first three rounds of drafts, according to the average draft position (ADP) provided by the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC). It was once considered foolhardy to take a pitcher in the first two rounds — now you’re going against the grain if you don’t draft one by the fifth.
But here’s the thing: I can’t say I agree with the practice. In fact, I’ve been working in the opposite direction. The reason is two-fold: The platooning of hitters has become more prevalent in real baseball, shallowing the pool of players you can rely on for 500-plus at-bats. Additionally, defensive shifts are lowering batting averages of pull hitters, further shrinking the pool of top hitters.
On top of the offensive drain (which already is on top of an overall downward trend in power and slugging), there is a group of pitchers available in the middle rounds who could take major steps forward this year, leaving them close enough to the top tier to justify passing on stud pitchers early.
Those pitchers include Taijuan Walker, Andrew Heaney, Trevor Bauer, Jimmy Nelson, Luis Severino and Carlos Rodon. Many of last year’s breakouts — and this year’s darlings (Dallas Keuchel, Jacob deGrom, Jake Arrieta, Matt Harvey and Gerrit Cole) — weren’t even ranked among the top 25 starting pitchers, much less the top 60 players.
So follow the crowd if you must — it is, after all, a very smart crowd producing these NFBC numbers — but I prefer to wait, attack scarce bats, and rely on a group of about-to-break-out arms to propel me to victory in 2016.
The Fantasy Sports Network (FNTSY) is the only TV channel dedicated to fantasy sports. Watch it on Cablevision, RCN or check it out on your Xbox One, Xbox 360, Apple TV, Roku or Amazon Fire TV.
