Sleepers make the world go ’round in fantasy baseball, but there’s an art to picking them — for every 10th-round pick who produces third-round value, there is one who will produce 25th-round value. And then a bunch who will give you that expected 10th-round value.
Tread carefully, friends. But we’re here to help. Here are a few who we feel fairly confident about as you pursue a 2016 fantasy title.
Joc Pederson: In 151 games last year, he hit .210 with a .346 OBP, 26 home runs, and four steals. This was not the player Pederson appeared to be throughout the minors, where he hit .302 with a .405 OBP (and had two seasons of 20-plus home runs) with more than 1,953 plate appearances. More strikingly, Pederson managed to steal 25-plus bases in four straight seasons — that number dropped precipitously last year. With a current National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) average draft position (ADP) of 171, Pederson’s 2016 potential — a .270 average with 25-30 home runs and 20-25 steals (assuming new coach Dave Roberts lets him loose on the base paths) — will give a fantasy player drafting Pederson second-round value from a much later draft position.
Andrew Heaney (239 NFBC ADP): The 24-year-old put together an impressive rookie campaign — a 3.49 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP. But a 6.6 K/9 ratio was uncharacteristically low for Heaney, who produced an 8.9 rate in the minors. Heaney finished 2015 with 184 innings pitched between the minors and majors — there was likely an edict to pitch to contact. With no overbearing arm-conserving tactics this year, Heaney should be allowed to chase more strikeouts and get his K/9 rate closer to the 8.3 area. The ratios should lower just by the virtue of Heaney having a year in the majors under his belt.
Jose Berrios (260 NFBC ADP): You may not see Berrios until May, but he will be a force when he arrives. In 440 ¹/₃ minor league innings, Berrios has produced a 2.98 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. As a bonus, he threw 166 ¹/₃ innings last season, so his stamina should be in the 180 IP (or higher) range this year. Berrios has shown improvement at nearly every level on his way up, so even if the 21-year-old has some initial bumps on his promotion, expect dominance shortly thereafter.
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