Fantasy Baseball: Top 25 prospects, midseason edition – CBSSports.com
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By now, those preseason prospect lists are looking pretty dusty.
Some of the biggest names have graduated to the majors. Others have faded into obscurity because of injuries or performance. Still others have only recently risen to prominence. (They’ve been playing games down in the minors, too, you know.)
The unofficial halfway point seems like a good time for a refresh, and for that, I’ve gone 25 deep.
A few ground rules first:
- The primary purpose of these rankings is to provide Fantasy owners with a list of names they need to know, so the criteria is a little different from traditional prospect rankings. For example, proximity to majors carries more weight and defensive ability carries less.
- In the interest of introducing new names, no player with major-league experience was considered, which eliminates standbys like
Lucas Giolito
,
Julio Urias
and
Joey Gallo
. We all know who they are and what they have to offer by now. The industry has yet to settle on an appropriate cutoff for midseason prospect rankings, so I prefer to keep mine as straightforward as possible. - No 2016 draft picks were considered. I’d prefer to see some data before forming an opinion on them. Besides, some haven’t even signed yet.
And with that, let’s get to prospecting.
All stats are updated through Tuesday, July 12.
1.
Alex Bregman
, SS,
Houston Astros
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Age: 22 (3/30/94)
2016 levels: Double-A, Triple-A
2016 stats: .309 BA (272 AB), 19 HR, 1.019 OPS, 44 BB, 33 K
The second overall pick in 2015 is clearly too good for the minor leagues, and rumor has it he could be up for the start of the second half, presumably to play third base. Either way, he’s the prospect to own for both the short and long term, his mastery of the strike zone and better-than-expected power likely making him an instant success.
Second-half callup is … expected.
2.
Yoan Moncada
, 2B,
Boston Red Sox
Bats: Both | Throws: Right
Age: 21 (5/27/95)
2016 levels: high Class A, Double-A
2016 stats: .312 BA (295 AB), 9 HR, 40 SB, .947 OPS, 48 BB, 80 K
Could he be the
Mike Trout
of second basemen? The Cuban defector has only exceeded our sky-high expectations so far. His physique suggests he’s just scratching the surface of his power potential, and that’s not even accounting for his minor league-leading steals total.
Second-half callup is … unlikely.
3.
Andrew Benintendi
, OF, Red Sox
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Age: 22 (7/6/94)
2016 levels: high Class A, Double-A
2016 stats: .311 BA (312 AB), 7 HR, 14 SB, .902 OPS, 32 BB, 36 K
Dave Dombrowski hinted before the break that last year’s first-round pick could be the solution to the Red Sox’s left field problems this year, which is a bold idea but one not to take lightly given the source. With his across-the-board skill set, Benintendi could be like another
Andrew McCutchen
.
Second-half callup is … likely.
4.
Alex Reyes
, SP,
St. Louis Cardinals
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Age: 21 (8/29/94)
2016 levels: Triple-A
2016 stats: 2-1, 4.35 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 61 K, 20 BB, 41 1/3 IP
Reyes hasn’t shrunk from an aggressive Triple-A assignment following his 50-game drug suspension (marijuana), mowing down hitters at the same eye-popping rate he did at every other level. Like
Tyler Glasnow
, he’ll have to overcome his control issues to meet his potential, but he has the most of any Cardinals pitcher, majors or minors.
Second-half callup is … likely.
5.
Dansby Swanson
, SS,
Atlanta Braves
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Age: 22 (2/11/94)
2016 levels: high Class A, Double-A
2016 stats: .285 BA (309 AB), 6 HR, 10 SB, .813 OPS, 39 BB, 58 K
None of Swanson’s numbers particularly stands out, which is fitting for a player who rates as above-average across the board. He was selected ahead of Alex Bregman for a reason, though, and that reason is because the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. He’s like
Dustin Pedroia
that way.
Second-half callup is … unlikely.
6.
David Dahl
, OF,
Colorado Rockies
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Age: 22 (4/1/94)
2016 levels: Double-A, Triple-A
2016 stats: .296 BA, (314 AB), 15 HR, 16 SB, .909 OPS, 41 BB, 85 K
Even as he was sitting out most of 2013 with a torn hamstring and having his spleen removed in 2015, the prospect hounds never gave up on Dahl, and the former first-rounder is finally showing why this year with a power/speed combo that should only be bolstered by Coors Field, perhaps as early as this year if the Rockies move
Carlos Gonzalez
.
Second-half callup is … likely.
7.
J.P. Crawford
, SS,
Philadelphia Phillies
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Age: 21 (1/11/95)
2016 levels: Double-A, Triple-A
2016 stats: .268 BA (321 AB), 5 HR, 10 SB, .740 OPS, 51 BB, 50 K
Crawford’s production hasn’t measured up to the hype to this point, but he’s young for his level and shows a foundational skill — strike-zone judgment — that should allow for rapid improvement. He may be looking at a Francisco Lindor-like ceiling, but he’d still be a top-flight Fantasy shortstop in that scenario.
Second-half callup is … unlikely.
8.
Jose De Leon
, SP,
Los Angeles Dodgers
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Age: 22 (8/7/92)
2016 levels: Triple-A
2016 stats: 1-0, 3.03 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 29 2/3 IP, 11 BB, 44 K
De Leon missed most of the first half with ankle and shoulder injuries, which means he has more innings in reserve for the second half when the Dodgers will no longer have Julio Urias at their disposal. He trailed only Alex Reyes in strikeouts per nine innings during a breakout 2015, and has demonstrated similar bat-missing ability so far in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.
Second-half callup is … likely.
9.
Brendan Rodgers
, SS, Rockies
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Age: 19 (8/9/96)
2016 levels: low Class A
2016 stats: .293 BA (280 AB), 13 HR, .863 OPS, 24 BB, 56 K
The Rockies may have found their shortstop of the present in
Trevor Story
, but Rodgers is still the ultimate prize. They’ll never replace
Troy Tulowitzki
‘s production at the position, but the third overall pick in the 2015 draft could come close.
Second-half callup is … not happening.
10.
Austin Meadows
, OF,
Pittsburgh Pirates
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Age: 21 (5/3/95)
2016 levels: Double-A, Triple-A
2016 stats: .296 BA (213 AB), 8 HR, 11 SB, .938 OPS, 18 BB, 39 K
It took him a while to develop the power expected of him, but as skilled of a contact hitter as he proved to be in the interim, he probably could’ve done without it. Now that he is a more complete hitter, though, his arrival is only a matter of him conquering Triple-A … well, and of the Pirates finding a spot for him.
Second-half callup is … unlikely.
11.
Clint Frazier
, OF,
Cleveland Indians
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Age: 21 (9/6/94)
2016 levels: Double-A
2016 stats: .287 BA (300 AB), 11 HR, 11 SB, .853 OPS, 38 BB, 72 K
Frazier has a higher ceiling than Meadows just from all the home runs he figures to hit due to his incredible bat speed, and he has become a much more composed hitter over the last season-plus. But he can be reckless in the outfield and still has yet to actualize all of that power.
Second-half callup is … unlikely.
12.
Bradley Zimmer
, OF, Indians
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Age: 23 (11/27/92)
2016 levels: Double-A
2016 stats: .244 BA (303 AB), 14 HR, 30 SB, .849, 50 BB, 104 K
Zimmer is probably the toolsier of the Indians outfield prospects, which sounds funny since that’s how Frazier was once regarded, but his swing-and-miss tendencies may keep him in the minors another year. The complete package still looks a lot like what the Indians lost in
Grady Sizemore
, who had the makings of a franchise player.
Second-half callup is … unlikely.
13.
Orlando Arcia
, SS,
Milwaukee Brewers
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Age: 21 (8/4/94)
2016 levels: Triple-A
2016 stats: .270 BA (337 AB), 7 HR, 12 SB, .734 OPS, 27 BB, 60 K
When it comes to elite shortstop prospects putting up underwhelming numbers, Arcia takes the crown — and in a hitter’s league, no less. It’s unfortunate because the rebuilding Brewers have an opening for him if
Jonathan Villar
follows
Aaron Hill
out the door, and they may still ask him to fill it. Maybe he’ll surprise like
Francisco Lindor
did last year.
Second-half callup is … likely.
14. Victor Robles, OF,
Washington Nationals
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Age: 19 (5/19/97)
2016 levels: low Class A, high Class A
2016 stats: .285 BA (291 AB), 7 HR, 26 SB, .822 OPS, 21 BB, 48 K
Robles isn’t reaching the majors any time soon, but his lower-level exploits have captured the imagination of Fantasy owners — and rightfully so. He has impressive contact skills for a player so young and so projectable in terms of power, and yet his speed is his most visible asset as of now. There’s five-category potential here.
Second-half callup is … not happening.
15. Anderson Espinoza, SP, Red Sox
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Age: 18 (3/9/98)
2016 levels: low Class A
2016 stats: 5-8, 4.38 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 76 IP, 27 BB, 72 K
Espinoza is surging up prospect lists thanks to a blistering three-pitch arsenal that belies his age. He’s still learning what to do with it, which explains his so-so numbers, but we’re talking potentially a Jose Fernandez-level talent if he develops as hoped.
Second-half callup is … not happening.
16.
Hunter Renfroe
, OF,
San Diego Padres
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Age: 24 (1/28/92)
2016 levels: Triple-A
2016 stats: .335 BA (355 AB), 21 HR, 27 2B, .973 OPS, 15 BB, 70 K
Aside from Alex Bregman, Renfroe is the one of these 25 most clamoring for a promotion, but his spike in production upon reaching the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League does raise suspicion. He has cut down on his strikeouts this year, though, and has always offered prodigious power, making a J.D. Martinez-like peak a distinct possibility.
Second-half callup is … expected.
17.
Ian Happ
, OF,
Chicago Cubs
Bats: Both | Throws: Right
Age: 21 (8/12/94)
2016 levels: high Class A, Double-A
2016 stats: .308 BA (302 AB), 9 HR, 13 SB, .893 OPS, 52 BB, 79 K
Ben Zobrist
, meet your past. Joe Maddon, meet your future. Happ has played mostly second base in the minors this year but has proven capable in the outfield as well. And offensively, he has shown a knack for getting on base while offering usable power and speed.
Second-half callup is … unlikely.
18.
Gleyber Torres
, SS, Cubs
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Age: 19 (12/13/96)
2016 levels: high Class A
2016 stats: .270 BA (319 AB), 9 HR, 17 SB, .771 OPS, 35 BB, 79 K
Torres is the headliner of a second wave of shortstop talent that includes
Willy Adames
,
Franklin Barreto
,
Jorge Mateo
and
Amed Rosario
. He seems to have the most diverse skill set and, thus, the highest ceiling of the bunch, showing decent contact ability, speed and the first hints of power.
Second-half callup is … not happening.
19.
Josh Hader
, SP, Brewers
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Age: 22 (4/7/94)
2016 levels: Double-A, Triple-A
2016 stats: 2-3, 2.56 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 81 IP, 33 BB, 104 K
Another pitcher the Astros let get away, Hader was a revelation at the start of the year, putting together a 0.95 ERA in 11 starts at Double-A to earn a promotion to Triple-A, where he has so far gotten pummeled. But it’s Colorado Springs, which earns him a pass, especially since his slider continues to pile up swings and misses.
Second-half callup is … unlikely.
20.
Reynaldo Lopez
, SP, Nationals
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Age: 22 (1/4/94)
2016 levels: Double-A, Triple-A
2016 stats: 4-5, 3.19 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 87 1/3 IP, 31 BB, 109 K
The man with the 100-mph fastball has come a long way in terms of pitchability this year, and the result has been one double-digit strikeout effort after another. Seeing as Lopez already has three pitches, it’s fair to say Lucas Giolito isn’t the only rotation mainstay the Nationals are developing.
Second-half callup is … unlikely.
21.
Aaron Judge
, OF,
New York Yankees
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Age: 24 (4/26/92)
2016 levels: Triple-A
2016 stats: .261 BA (318 AB), 16 HR, .825 OPS, 42 BB, 86 K
A sprained PCL will delay his arrival, but the 6-foot-7 behemoth was likely on the verge of a promotion after homering nine times in his last 25 games. Overall, though, the power production has been underwhelming for a man of his impressive stature, especially since that’s supposed to be his defining skill.
Second-half callup is … likely.
22.
Manuel Margot
, OF, Padres
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Age: 21 (9/28/94)
2016 levels: Triple-A
2016 stats: .299 BA (344 AB), 4 HR, 23 SB, .771 OPS, 24 BB, 36 K
Margot’s contact rate and defensive chops give him a high floor as prospects go, but Fantasy owners may be underwhelmed by his ceiling. Then again,
Shane Victorino
and
A.J. Pollock
developed enough power to matter after beginning with a similar profile.
Second-half callup is … likely.
23.
Jeff Hoffman
, SP, Rockies
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Age: 23 (1/8/93)
2016 levels: Triple-A
2016 stats: 4-7, 4.03 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 98 1/3 IP, 34 BB, 99 K
With his mid-90s fastball and full secondary arsenal, including a power curve, Hoffman would be one of the more projectable pitching prospects if he wasn’t in line to pitch half his games at Coors Field.
Jon Gray
‘s success, at least since the end of April, shows it can be done, but right now, Hoffman is having a hard enough time with the Pacific Coast League.
Second-half callup is … likely.
24.
Jesse Winker
, OF,
Cincinnati Reds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Age: 22 (8/17/93)
2016 levels: Rookie, Triple-A
2016 stats: .297 BA (212 AB), 4 HR, .791 OPS, 35 BB, 36 K
I don’t know what’s gone wrong for a guy who broke through with a .316 batting average, 10 home runs and .941 OPS in his final 225 at-bats last year. Maybe it’s the wrist he’s currently rehabilitating, maybe it’s the
Brandon Drury
effect (see 2015) , but I dig the plate discipline and suspect the Reds will have an opening for him soon.
Second-half callup is … likely.
25.
Amir Garrett
, SP, Reds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Age: 24 (5/3/92)
2016 levels: Double-A, Triple-A
2016 stats: 6-4, 1.98 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 95 2/3 IP, 38 BB, 90 K
The former St. John’s basketball player has turned out to be less of a project than anyone imagined and may already be the most capable of a stable of young hurlers that includes
Cody Reed
and
Robert Stephenson
. He should have plenty of innings left in the tank, too, after exceeding 140 last season.
Second-half callup is … likely.
Honorable mentions: Willy Adames, SS, TB;
Ozzie Albies
, SS, ATL; Franklin Barreto, SS, OAK;
Cody Bellinger
, 1B, LAD;
Phil Bickford
, SP, SF;
Lewis Brinson
, OF, TEX;
Rafael Devers
, 3B, BOS;
Brent Honeywell
, SP, TB;
Eloy Jimenez
, OF, CHC; Jorge Mateo, SS, NYY;
Joe Musgrove
, SP, HOU;
Sean Newcomb
, SP, ATL;
Tyler O’Neill
, OF, SEA;
David Paulino
, SP, HOU; Amed Rosario, SS, NYM;
Jake Thompson
, SP, PHI;
Luke Weaver
, SP, STL;
Nick Williams
, OF, PHI