Fantasy Baseball: Tuesday’s DFS advice – CBSSports.com
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We’re now through April and people will begin to take 2016 stats more seriously. In some ways I’m OK with that, but I’d hardly take them as a replacement for numbers over the last three years. The Toronto Blue Jays are a fine example of this.
The Blue Jays were the best team in baseball vs. LHP in 2015 and have a roster full of guys that have crushed lefties in the past. Through one month they’ve been pretty league average as an offense and own the fourth worst K rate in baseball (25.8 percent) vs. lefties. I just can’t believe that their entire roster got worse against southpaws, and today is an excellent day for that to change.
We’re also to the point where people start giving up on players, and that should lead to some low owned bargains with big upside. On this slate, Russell Martin, Andrew Cashner and Howie Kendrick come to mind. All three have been awful this season, and Martin isn’t healthy. But in the right matchups, these are the types of plays that can differentiate you from the field.
Starting Pitchers
Jake Arrieta ($12,100, $12,100)
I don’t think you probably read this article to hear that one of the best pitchers in baseball is a good play, so I’ll keep it short. Arrieta has the highest upside and the second highest win probability on the slate. Thankfully, there are also plenty of bargains with good platoon splits to fit him in. I’d want at least 50 percent of Arrieta in cash.
Matt Harvey ($9,500, $10,300)
The highest win probability of the day goes to Matt Harvey against the Braves. Harvey has not been great this year, but his two best starts have been his last two starts. His velocity is trending the right direction and the Braves are an atrocious offense. Harvey will likely be my second pitcher in cash, though his price on DraftKings makes that difficult.
Andrew Cashner ($6,700, $6,700)
Despite his name, Andrew Cashner is nowhere close to a cash game option. He has been downright terrible for most of 2016, but I’m not giving up yet. The Rockies aren’t quite as challenging on the road, and Petco should play fairly well for the pitcher that has a career 2.87 ERA at home. The opposing pitcher (Eddie Butler) also makes this an even better matchup.
Stack Attack
Blue Jays vs. Rangers
If this Blue Jays offense turns out to be as mediocre as it has been so far, my bankroll is going down with their playoff chances. Troy Tulowitzki and Russell Martin are a combined 2 for 32 vs. LHP this year. Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion have wOBAs that are more than 10 percent worse than their career numbers. I’m all in on the right-handed Jays vs. Martin Perez.
Angels @ Brewers
I’ll be honest, I’d never heard of Junior Guerra before today. I get a little nervous stacking against pitchers making their major league debuts, but not 31 year olds who have been in the minors for 10 years with limited success. Mike Trout is one of the top plays of the night, and I’m very interested in Kole Calhoun.
Giants @ Reds
The Giants get a huge park shift bonus in Cincinnati and face a pitcher in John Moscot who has struck out just six batters in 15.2 innings. Brandon Belt is a nice tournament option and Brandon Crawford fits for those who like to play the streaks. I like Denard Span a lot, and Joe Panik if he returns on Tuesday.
Lineups
I’m going to offer my early take on a cash game lineup, but of course you should always check out our Sportsline projections for lineup changes right up to lock. Also, check out our podcast on iTunes for extended thoughts on each slate from Chris Towers, Mike McClure and myself.
FanDuel
P Matt Harvey $9,500
C Russell Martin $2,200
1B Edwin Encarnacion $3,300
2B Joe Panik $3,300
3B Yunel Escobar $3,100
SS Brandon Crawford $2,800
OF Denard Span $3,300
OF Kole Calhoun $3,200
OF Jose Bautista $4,100
DraftKings
P Jake Arrieta $12,100
P Matt Harvey $10,300
C Matt Wieters $3,200
1B Edwin Encarnacion $3,800
2B Brandon Phillips $3,400
3B Brandon Drury $3,200
SS Danny Santana $2,300
OF Michael Conforto $3,700
OF Charlie Blackmon $3,700
OF Jose Bautista $4,200
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