Fantasy daily notes for April 12 – ESPN

Starting pitcher projected Game Scores for April 12
					2014 Statistics			Past 21 Days
GS	Team	Name	T	Opp	W-L	ERA	WHIP	W-L	ERA	WHIP
74		Felix Hernandez	R	@Oak	15-6	2.14	0.92	1-1	1.80	1.03
71		Max Scherzer	R	@Phi	18-5	3.15	1.18	3-0	2.36	1.35
70*		Chris Sale	L	Min	12-4	2.17	0.97	1-1	2.84	1.16
64		Tyson Ross	R	SF	13-14	2.81	1.21	0-1	12.00	2.33
63		Alex Wood	L	NYM	11-11	2.78	1.14	1-1	1.83	1.07
60		Zack Greinke	R	@Ari	17-8	2.71	1.15	3-0	2.62	1.04
57		Josh Collmenter	R	LAD	11-9	3.46	1.13	1-2	1.59	0.74
55*		Masahiro Tanaka	R	Bos	13-5	2.77	1.06	1-1	7.71	2.00
54		Dallas Keuchel	L	@Tex	12-9	2.92	1.18	2-0	1.20	0.80
53		Chris Tillman	R	Tor	13-6	3.34	1.23	2-1	2.92	1.30
53		Jesse Hahn	R	Sea	7-4	3.07	1.21	—	—	—
53		Drew Hutchison	R	@Bal	11-13	4.48	1.26	2-2	4.57	1.20
53		Clay Buchholz	R	@NYY	8-11	5.34	1.39	1-3	5.62	1.29
52		Sean O’Sullivan	R	Wsh	0-1	6.39	1.34	0-0	0.00	0.00
51		Carlos Martinez	R	@Cin	2-4	4.03	1.41	0-0	0.84	1.13
51		C.J. Wilson	L	KC	13-10	4.51	1.45	2-1	3.37	1.45
51		Jake Peavy	R	@SD	7-13	3.73	1.28	2-0	1.78	0.95
51		Kyle Lobstein	L	@Cle	1-2	4.35	1.25	0-2	6.48	1.32
51		Yordano Ventura	R	@LAA	14-10	3.20	1.30	2-1	2.88	1.24
50		Kyle Lohse	R	Pit	13-9	3.54	1.15	1-0	1.17	0.61
50		Bartolo Colon	R	@Atl	15-13	4.09	1.23	2-2	5.16	1.72
49		Phil Hughes	R	@CWS	16-10	3.52	1.13	1-1	3.27	1.00
49		Kyle Hendricks	R	@Col	7-2	2.46	1.08	1-1	4.00	1.17
49		T.J. House	L	Det	5-3	3.35	1.32	3-0	1.59	0.94
45		Henderson Alvarez	R	TB	12-7	2.65	1.24	2-1	1.30	1.23
45		Raisel Iglesias	R	StL	—	—	—	—	—	—
44		Colby Lewis	R	Hou	10-14	5.18	1.52	1-2	3.81	1.23
41		Nathan Karns	R	@Mia	1-1	4.50	0.92	1-1	4.50	0.92
41		Casey Sadler	R	@Mil	0-1	7.84	1.65	0-0	9.00	2.00
40		Jordan Lyles	R	ChC	7-4	4.33	1.37	1-2	4.24	1.41
GS: The pitcher’s projected “Game Score,” from Bill James’ original formula, which accounts for past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. A Game Score of 50 typically is typically regarded a quality start; anything over 70 is exceptional, anything under 30 poor. A “*” means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate projected Game Score; these are the author’s projections. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher’s opponent for the day. W-L: Pitcher’s win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher’s earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher’s average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.

Today’s schedule has a little bit of everything. With so many solid arms at all levels, it really isn’t necessary to go off the board if you’re playing DFS. But with the chance that some squads are giving some work to their bench players, it could be a good day to sneak in a spot starter with a favorable matchup, so be sure to watch the lineups for a soft spot.

The elite

As has been the case most of the week, the aces are on the road and today follows suit. Max Scherzer gets the nod over Felix Hernandez as the top option of the day, primarily because of the weather in the northeast, and facing the deceptive Scherzer in the cold can’t be much fun.

Something to keep in mind with studs like King Felix is a large part of what makes them such great DFS choices is they go deep into games, racking up points via innings as well as whiffs. While there are exceptions — such as David Price‘s near complete game earlier in the week — most managers won’t push their aces early in the season unless they’re quite efficient with their pitches. Being on the road against the patient Oakland Athletics, Hernandez isn’t likely to match Price’s effort and if he’s throwing fewer innings, he’s not worth the higher salary than some solid options that will work the same number of innings. Later in the season, the opposite will be true; the reason to use pitchers of Hernandez’s ilk will be because they’re getting three or four more outs than most pitchers.

Chris Sale is making his 2015 debut. Like with Hernandez, don’t expect a lengthy outing. He’s ready, or the Chicago White Sox wouldn’t have accelerated his return, but the safe play is to assume a conservative approach with respect to early workload.

Solid

Tyson Ross is my play-of-the-day. He’s home at friendly Petco Park facing the rather tepid San Francisco Giants lineup. If you’re an Insider subscriber, you’ll be seeing his name on the DFS Tip Sheet.

There are some that feel that once the league acclimates more to Alex Wood‘s deceptive delivery, he won’t be as effective. Perhaps that’s true, but we’re not there yet, which renders the youngster really enjoyable to watch work. He faces the New York Mets at home and while it’s far too early to glean anything from early-season numbers, at least on paper their lineup loses a bit against southpaws.

There’s some really mixed signals coming out of the Bronx with respect to Masahiro Tanaka. Initially the word was he’d be relying more on his two-seam fastball, shelving the four-seam version despite the fact the latter is about two mph faster. Now there is some mumbling his two-seamer has lost a little velocity. Coming into the season, the concern with Tanaka was two-fold. First is the obvious, seemingly inevitable Tommy John surgery. The second was if he’d just pitch as he did last season or if he’d make adjustments, which is what he seems to be doing. This could be more worrisome than the threat of injury. The assumption was Tanaka’s arm could go at any point but when he was actually pitching, he’d be as effective as last season. This is no longer the case, not with all the discussion about altering his arsenal.

If you own Tanaka, you got him at a discount and may as well ride it out. But if he happens to throw well, it may be wise to see what you can get from a believer. Unfortunately, I wouldn’t expect said gem on Sunday. In fact, if you’re in a close head-to-head tussle and need to protect ratios, Tanaka’s date with the Boston Red Sox is a concern.

Streamers

This call would be safer if Miguel Cabrera and/or Victor Martinez were given the day off, but even so, T.J. House has the stuff to tame the Detroit Tigers. He’s an extreme ground ball pitcher with a league-average strikeout rate. Without a big gun or two, House could keep the rest of the lineup in check while his mates do some damage versus fill-in starter Kyle Lobstein.

Based on his initial start, advising to use Nathan Karns seems like a stretch but we’re looking for a long shot and Karns fits the bill. Last year, the Miami Marlins were among the league leaders in striking out and they are picking up where they left off. Karns may struggle with his control but he misses bats and racks up punchouts.