Fantasy daily notes for April 16 – ESPN

Starting pitcher projected Game Scores for April 16
					2014 Statistics			2015 Statistics
GS	Team	Name	T	Opp	W-L	ERA	WHIP	W-L	ERA	WHIP
68		Madison Bumgarner	L	Ari	18-10	2.98	1.09	1-1	5.40	1.70
64		Cole Hamels	L	@Wsh	9-9	2.46	1.15	0-1	3.75	1.00
62		Mike Fiers	R	@StL	6-5	2.13	0.88	0-1	9.00	1.60
54		Doug Fister	R	Phi	16-6	2.41	1.08	0-0	0.00	1.11
50		Chris Archer	R	@Tor	10-9	3.33	1.28	1-1	2.13	0.71
48		Dillon Gee	R	Mia	7-8	4.00	1.25	0-1	9.00	1.60
47		Jason Vargas	L	@Min	11-10	3.71	1.27	1-0	3.00	1.00
45		Aaron Sanchez	R	TB	—	—	—	0-1	8.10	2.70
45		John Lackey	R	Mil	14-10	3.82	1.28	0-0	6.00	1.00
45		Tommy Milone	L	KC	6-4	4.19	1.40	1-0	0.00	0.52
43		Jarred Cosart	R	@NYM	13-11	3.69	1.36	0-1	1.50	1.00
42		Archie Bradley	R	@SF	—	—	—	1-0	0.00	0.83
GS: The pitcher’s projected “Game Score,” from Bill James’ original formula, which accounts for past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. A Game Score of 50 typically is typically regarded a quality start; anything over 70 is exceptional, anything under 30 poor. A “*” means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate projected Game Score; these are the author’s projections. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher’s opponent for the day. W-L: Pitcher’s win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher’s earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher’s average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.

Thursday is a frequent off day for major league baseball teams, and this Thursday’s slate is especially light, with only six games on the docket. Thus, whether you’re playing DFS or simply streaming starting pitchers in standard formats, pickings are slim for all involved. Fortunately, there are still enough options to satisfy all three of our tiers below.

Elite

Madison Bumgarner secures the top spot of the day in a home start against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Any lineup that includes Paul Goldschmidt needs to be respected, and the D’backs actually rank in the top 10 in runs scored so far this season. However, they’ve also been doing a lot of swinging and missing in the early going, evidenced by a 22.3 percent whiff rate that ranks bottom five in the NL, something the Giants ace should be able to exploit. In his past 10 starts against Arizona, Bumgarner owns a 1.70 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.

The only other hurler who deserves the “elite” designation on Thursday is Cole Hamels, who heads to Washington to take on the Nationals. Widely regarded as the team to beat in the NL this preseason, the Nationals have been stuck in neutral thus far, sitting at 2-6 and averaging just three runs per game. In fact, Hamels spun seven innings of one-run ball against them his last time out. That said, aside from Bryce Harper, the entire Nats lineup will have the platoon advantage against Hamels on Thursday, and with a healthy Jayson Werth back in the fold, you get the feeling this lineup will start clicking soon. There’s no need to shy away from Hamels here, but Bumgarner is in a better spot.

Solid

The good news about Mike Fiers‘ first start was that he whiffed eight in just five innings. The bad news was that he also allowed seven hits and five runs in those five innings. The Milwaukee Brewers right-hander will look for a more balanced outing on Thursday against the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals typically don’t strike out a lot, which limits Fiers’ upside a bit, but they also don’t hit many home runs, which limits the downside. It also helps that Busch Stadium is a pitcher-friendly environment.

Doug Fister is opposing Hamels on Thursday, so a win might be hard to come by, but the matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies is certainly a positive. While much of the Phillies’ lineup gets the handedness edge over Fister, the Phillies have scored the fewest runs in baseball so far, and honestly don’t have a single hitter in their lineup who scares you. Fister’s lack of strikeout potential (5.4 K/9 last year) keeps him out of the top tier, but this is a great matchup for the Washington right-hander.

Chris Archer was impressive his last time out, throwing seven innings of shutout ball against the Miami Marlins while allowing only one hit, but fantasy owners may want to tap the brakes a bit for his Thursday start. Pitching against the Toronto Blue Jays in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre is one of the most dangerous scenarios in the game for a starting pitcher, so caution is warranted. As far as DFS is concerned, Archer could be a nice GPP play, as he does have some upside, but he’s too risky for cash games.

Streamers

Last week, I recommended taking a wait-and-see approach with Archie Bradley in his first major league start. After the rookie tossed six innings of one-hit ball with six K’s against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the wait-and-see approach is over. Available in roughly 69 percent of ESPN leagues, Bradley is a strong streaming option against an underwhelming Giants lineup at the pitcher-friendly AT&T Park.

While he doesn’t quite have the same excitement surrounding him as Bradley, Jason Vargas, available in 99 percent of ESPN leagues, is a fine streaming option, as well. Vargas is underappreciated in fantasy circles because he doesn’t miss many bats, but he produced a quality start in his first outing of the season against the Los Angeles Angels, and he’s got a favorable matchup on Thursday against the Minnesota Twins, a team that has scored the fewest runs in the American League so far and has struck out 22.7 percent of the time, which ranks bottom three in the AL.