Fantasy daily notes for April 17 – ESPN

Starting pitcher projected Game Scores for April 17
					2014 Statistics			2015 Statistics
GS	Team	Name	T	Opp	W-L	ERA	WHIP	W-L	ERA	WHIP
75*		Clayton Kershaw	L	Col	21-3	1.77	0.86	0-1	5.84	1.70
73		Max Scherzer	R	Phi	18-5	3.15	1.18	0-1	0.66	1.02
72*		David Price	L	CWS	15-12	3.26	1.08	1-0	0.00	0.84
67		Corey Kluber	R	@Min	18-9	2.44	1.10	0-1	2.63	0.95
65*		Sonny Gray	R	@KC	14-10	3.08	1.19	1-0	0.59	0.59
64*		Johnny Cueto	R	@StL	20-9	2.25	0.96	0-1	0.64	0.71
60		Jeff Samardzija	R	@Det	7-13	2.99	1.07	0-1	6.23	1.31
59		Julio Teheran	R	@Tor	14-13	2.89	1.08	2-0	1.50	1.25
56		James Shields	R	@ChC	14-8	3.21	1.18	1-0	2.08	0.92
55		Josh Collmenter	R	@SF	11-9	3.46	1.13	0-2	6.52	2.17
54		Drew Hutchison	R	Atl	11-13	4.48	1.26	1-0	6.97	1.26
54		Michael Wacha	R	Cin	5-6	3.20	1.20	1-0	1.42	0.95
53		Jake Peavy	R	Ari	7-13	3.73	1.28	0-1	9.00	1.75
52		Bartolo Colon	R	Mia	15-13	4.09	1.23	2-0	2.77	0.77
50*		J.A. Happ	L	Tex	11-11	4.22	1.34	0-0	2.84	1.11
48		Joe Kelly	R	Bal	6-4	4.20	1.35	1-0	1.29	0.43
47*		Ubaldo Jimenez	R	@Bos	6-9	4.81	1.52	1-0	0.00	0.29
47		Yovani Gallardo	R	@Sea	8-11	3.51	1.30	1-1	5.59	1.65
46		Jeff Locke	L	Mil	7-6	3.91	1.27	1-0	3.00	1.33
46		David Phelps	R	@NYM	5-5	4.38	1.43	0-0	36.00	6.00
45		Jimmy Nelson	R	@Pit	2-9	4.93	1.46	1-0	0.00	0.57
45*		Adam Warren	R	@TB	3-6	2.97	1.11	0-1	1.69	1.31
45*		Jered Weaver	R	@Hou	18-9	3.59	1.21	0-2	8.71	1.84
45		Jason Hammel	R	SD	10-11	3.47	1.12	1-0	4.50	1.33
44*		Sean O’Sullivan	R	@Wsh	0-1	6.39	1.34	0-0	3.00	1.00
43		Jeremy Guthrie	R	Oak	13-11	4.13	1.30	1-0	5.14	1.00
43		Nathan Karns	R	NYY	1-1	4.50	0.92	1-1	4.97	1.03
43		Kyle Kendrick	R	@LAD	10-13	4.61	1.36	1-1	6.00	1.67
42		Roberto Hernandez	R	LAA	8-11	4.10	1.39	0-1	1.93	1.93
36		Mike Pelfrey	R	Cle	0-3	7.99	1.99	0-0	7.20	1.60
GS: The pitcher’s projected “Game Score,” from Bill James’ original formula, which accounts for past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. A Game Score of 50 typically is typically regarded a quality start; anything over 70 is exceptional, anything under 30 poor. A “*” means that the author has made adjustments to the calculated projections. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher’s opponent for the day. W-L: Pitcher’s win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher’s earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher’s average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.

After a couple slates with less than desirable choices, Friday is chock full of aces, along with a couple of intriguing spot-start candidates.

Obviously, you’re starting the elite in traditional fantasy. We’ll rank the studs for DFS play, but if you want specific pitching recommendations, be sure to check out the Insider DraftKings and FanDuel Tip Sheets on our DFS blog.

The Elite

Three of the games’ best are all working at home. This is a day you want to make sure you get the pitcher right, especially in cash games. With so many hitting bargains still to be had, cost is secondary.

He may be slow out of the gate, but Clayton Kershaw is still the best pitcher on the planet. On Friday, he’s at home, squaring off against a predominantly left-handed Colorado Rockies lineup. For his career, the southpaw has held left-handed batters to a meek 0.252 weighted on-base average (wOBA), fanning them in 37 percent of all trips to the dish.

The next two are in a virtual dead heat. David Price may possess slightly better peripherals, but Max Scherzer is facing a weaker team with the pitcher hitting. Scherzer takes on a Philadelphia Phillies squad sporting a .254 (wOBA) and 23 percent strikeout rate versus right-handers, setting Scherzer up for a dominant outing. The early-season numbers for the Chicago White Sox against left-handers are actually worse, with a .242 wOBA and 28 percent whiff rate. However, this sample is a mere 68 plate appearances, and it stands to reason a lineup featuring Melky Cabrera, Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia and Alexei Ramirez has more potential than one built around Ben Revere, Freddy Galvis, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard.

There are three more bona fide aces working Friday, all on the road. Corey Kluber tops the group, traveling to Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins. So far, the Twins carry a .243 wOBA and 24 percent strikeout rate against right-handers. Sonny Gray narrowly edges out Johnny Cueto for the next spot. Gray heads to Kansas City to face the pesky Royals, while Cueto visits Busch Stadium to square off against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Solid

James Shields is the poster boy for solid arms. This encounter won’t be easy, as the Chicago Cubs are capable of putting up crooked numbers against anyone, but they’re off to a bit of a slow start and Wrigley Field plays like a pitcher’s park in April.

If he stays healthy this season, Michael Wacha could be in line for a promotion into the elite tier next season. The primary factor that could elevate Wacha in the ranks is going deeper into games and getting that innings level up. This would be a benefit for both season-long and daily play. Wacha threw 6 1/3 innings in his 2015 debut, so he’s off to a solid start. The Cincinnati Reds‘ offense hasn’t kicked it in gear yet and isn’t likely to get going versus Wacha.

Jake Peavy had a tough inaugural start to the 2015 campaign. He missed his first scheduled start with back spasms, so let’s give him the benefit of the doubt with respect to his poor effort against the San Diego Padres. The veteran right-hander faces an Arizona Diamondbacks squad that fares much better at home. Given the game is in AT&T Park, Peavy has a good chance to right the ship.

Streamers

There’s a line of thinking that says if you’re not going to use a pitcher when he’s at home, then drop him from your roster. This is even more applicable when home is a pitcher’s park. J.A. Happ takes the hill in Safeco against the Texas Rangers. If you own Happ, or if he’s available on your waiver wire, this is the opportunity you’ve been waiting for. Happ’s peripherals are around league average, but the park edge — along with a Ranger lineup looking for an identity — are in his favor.

Jimmy Nelson is going to have the ups and downs all rookies encounter. He began the year on a high note, stifling the Pittsburgh Pirates over seven innings, allowing just two knocks while fanning nine. The Bucs seek revenge, this time at home. A repeat performance would be optimistic, but it’s possible, considering the Pirates are in the lower third when it comes to runs scored and top five with respect to team strikeouts.