Fantasy daily notes for April 25 – ESPN

Starting pitcher projected Game Scores for April 26
					2014 Statistics			2015 Statistics
GS	Team	Name	T	Opp	W-L	ERA	WHIP	W-L	ERA	WHIP
67		Francisco Liriano	L	@Ari	7-10	3.38	1.30	0-1	3.00	0.83
64		Carlos Carrasco	R	@Det	8-7	2.55	0.99	2-1	2.38	0.88
57*		Mike Fiers	R	StL	6-5	2.13	0.88	0-3	6.75	1.70
57		Chris Archer	R	Tor	10-9	3.33	1.28	2-2	1.07	0.83
56		Lance Lynn	R	@Mil	15-10	2.74	1.26	1-1	1.56	1.10
55		Drew Pomeranz	L	Hou	5-4	2.35	1.12	1-2	4.24	1.06
53		Dan Haren	R	Wsh	—	—	—	1-1	3.32	0.84
51		Nathan Eovaldi	R	NYM	6-14	4.37	1.33	1-0	3.12	1.67
59		Jordan Zimmermann	R	@Mia	14-5	2.66	1.07	1-2	6.14	1.57
49		Mark Buehrle	L	@TB	13-10	3.39	1.36	3-0	4.00	1.50
49		Edinson Volquez	R	@CWS	—	—	—	2-1	1.99	0.75
49		Brandon Morrow	R	LAD	1-3	5.67	1.65	0-0	3.15	1.10
48		Scott Baker	R	@SD	3-4	5.47	1.19	—	—	—
48		Kyle Lobstein	L	Cle	1-2	4.35	1.25	1-1	3.27	1.55
48		Jonathon Niese	L	@NYY	9-11	3.40	1.27	—	—	—
47		Travis Wood	L	@Cin	8-13	5.03	1.53	1-1	3.24	1.20
47		Hector Santiago	L	Tex	6-9	3.75	1.36	2-1	2.45	1.04
47		Wade Miley	L	@Bal	8-12	4.34	1.40	1-1	6.08	1.58
46		Bud Norris	R	Bos	15-8	3.65	1.22	0-2	17.42	2.32
45		Tyler Matzek	L	SF	6-11	4.05	1.39	1-0	2.40	1.53
44		Jerome Williams	R	Atl	6-7	4.77	1.40	1-1	3.71	1.53
44		Kyle Gibson	R	@Sea	13-12	4.47	1.31	1-2	5.87	1.96
44		Roenis Elias	L	Min	10-12	3.85	1.31	—	—	—
44		Tim Lincecum	R	@Col	12-9	4.74	1.39	1-1	2.00	1.22
44		Asher Wojciechowski	R	@Oak	—	—	—	0-1	6.00	1.92
42		Jeremy Hellickson	R	Pit	1-5	4.52	1.45	1-2	4.58	1.70
42		Jason Marquis	R	ChC	—	—	—	1-1	7.20	1.73
41		Trevor Cahill	R	@Phi	3-12	5.61	1.61	0-2	9.95	2.21
40		John Danks	L	KC	11-11	4.74	1.44	0-2	6.06	1.47
38		Nick Martinez	R	@LAA	5-12	4.55	1.46	2-0	0.45	1.00
GS: The pitcher’s projected “Game Score,” from Bill James’ original formula, which accounts for past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. A Game Score of 50 typically is typically regarded a quality start; anything over 70 is exceptional, anything under 30 poor. A “*” means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate projected Game Score; these are the author’s projections. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher’s opponent for the day. W-L: Pitcher’s win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher’s earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher’s average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.

Elite

It says something about Matt Harvey that a start against the New York Yankees in Yankee Stadium still nets him a Game Score of 70, the highest of the day. The Mets’ ace has been dominant in the early going, owning a 12.0 K/9 and 0.50 BB/9 through 18 innings. It’s worth noting that he’s yet to pitch past the sixth inning in any of his first three starts, but the Mets should lengthen his leash a bit as we get farther into the season. The Yankees’ offense has been clicking thus far, as it ranks top-three in baseball in runs scored and top-three in isolated power, so this is far from an ideal matchup, meaning some DFS players will want to fade the Mets right-hander. Then again, Harvey offers a combination of safety and upside that not many hurlers can match, no matter the matchup.

Stephen Strasburg comes the closest, and his road matchup against the Miami Marlins is certainly more favorable, but he hasn’t looked as dialed in as Harvey so far this season. Strasburg’s last outing was his best, a start that saw him pitch 7 1/3 innings of one-run ball against the Philadelphia Phillies. However, the Phillies are a weak opponent, and he had allowed 11 runs in his previous 10 2/3 innings, which is partly why he’s behind Harvey in the rankings. Of course, Strasburg is a guy who can rack up double-digit K’s in any outing, and the Marlins happen to sport a 23.6 percent whiff rate versus right-handers this season, so there’s nothing wrong with giving Strasburg the nod in your cash-game lineups.

Solid

A case can be made for Jake Arrieta and Adam Wainwright in the top tier, but both are clearly a step below a guy like Harvey, so we’ll knock them down a peg for this column’s purposes. Either way, they both deserve cash-game consideration if you’re seeking a slightly more affordable price tag. Arrieta has tossed three straight quality starts with a 4.8:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio to start the season, and the Cincinnati Reds have posted a measly .295 wOBA versus right-handed pitching this season. Wainwright, meanwhile, gets a struggling Milwaukee Brewers team that sports a .264 wOBA against righties (second worst in baseball) to go along with a 22.8 percent whiff rate versus right-handers (sixth worst). Keep in mind, though, that Wainwright’s K/9 has been dwindling over the past couple of seasons and sits at only 6.0 so far this year, so his start-to-start upside isn’t what it used to be.

This is an awfully tough matchup for Trevor Bauer, who faces a Detroit Tigers team that sports a top-five wOBA (.347) against right-handed pitching this season, but he’s been so good it’s hard to write him off. Through three starts, the Cleveland right-hander has whiffed 26 and allowed just eight hits in 19 innings. Yes, the 5.2 BB/9 rate is worrisome, but the guy looks unhittable right now. Given the opponent, there’s reason to be a little hesitant here in cash games, but the strikeout upside alone will make Bauer a popular GPP play.

The last time Anthony DeSclafani faced the Chicago Cubs (during the second week of the season), he spun seven innings of shutout ball while striking out five and allowing only two hits. On Saturday, the right-hander is set to square off against the Cubs again, this time at home. The Cubs’ lineup can do some damage, especially now that Kris Bryant and Addison Russell have joined the big league club, but there’s a lot of swing-and-miss in that lineup, too. DeSclafani’s ownership percentage has skyrocketed now that he’s allowed only two runs in 21 innings of work this season, so he’s no longer a streaming option. He is, however, a strong DFS play if you’re looking to save cap space.

Based on matchup alone, Shelby Miller is also worth a look as a cost-saving option. The Phillies sport a .246 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season, the worst mark in baseball, and they strike out a fair amount against righties, too (22.2 percent). Miller’s 6.2 K/9 over his past 32 starts keeps the upside limited, but the Phillies are a team that can be easily exploited.

Streamers

A.J. Burnett is fantasy relevant again now that he’s back in Pittsburgh, and he’s got a favorable matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks lined up for Saturday. Chase Field is a hitter-friendly venue, but Burnett does a great job keeping the ball on the ground (59.6 percent GB rate this season), and the D-backs have been middle-of-the-road at best against right-handed pitching (.307 wOBA). Available in 61 percent of ESPN.com leagues, Burnett makes for a great streaming option, but don’t expect him to be widely available much longer.

Brandon McCarthy is also a free agent in a decent number of ESPN.com leagues (46 percent), and his time as a streaming option could be ending soon, too. While he’s gotten in trouble with the long ball this season (six homers allowed), he’s been racking up the strikeouts with 25 K’s through 18 innings. That type of whiff rate won’t continue, but this is still a nice spot to stream McCarthy. The San Diego Padres‘ offense has been rejuvenated, but McCarthy will have the handedness advantage against most of the lineup, and Petco Park should help him keep the ball in the yard.