Fantasy daily notes for April 9 – ESPN

Starting pitcher projected Game Scores for April 9
					2014 Statistics			Past 21 Days
GS	Team	Name	T	Opp	W-L	ERA	WHIP	W-L	ERA	WHIP
68*		Matt Harvey	R	@Wsh	—	—	—	—	—	—
67		Stephen Strasburg	R	NYM	14-11	3.14	1.12	—	—	—
55		A.J. Burnett	R	@Cin	8-18	4.59	1.41	—	—	—
55		CC Sabathia	L	Tor	3-4	5.28	1.48	—	—	—
53		Ian Kennedy	R	SF	13-13	3.63	1.29	—	—	—
49		Shane Greene	R	Min	5-4	3.78	1.40	—	—	—
49		Justin Masterson	R	@Phi	7-9	5.88	1.63	—	—	—
47		Tim Hudson	R	@SD	9-13	3.57	1.23	—	—	—
47*		Kendall Graveman	R	Tex	0-0	3.86	0.86	—	—	—
46		Trevor Bauer	R	@Hou	5-8	4.18	1.38	—	—	—
46		David Buchanan	R	Bos	6-8	3.75	1.29	—	—	—
45		Edinson Volquez	R	CWS	13-7	3.04	1.23	—	—	—
45*		Daniel Norris	L	@NYY	0-0	5.40	1.50	—	—	—
43		John Danks	L	@KC	11-11	4.74	1.44	—	—	—
43		Asher Wojciechowski	R	Cle	—	—	—	—	—	—
42		Anthony DeSclafani	R	Pit	2-2	6.27	1.36	—	—	—
38		Kyle Gibson	R	@Det	13-12	4.47	1.31	—	—	—
37		Nick Martinez	R	@Oak	5-12	4.55	1.46	—	—	—
GS: The pitcher’s projected “Game Score,” from Bill James’ original formula, which accounts for past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. A Game Score of 50 typically is typically regarded a quality start; anything over 70 is exceptional, anything under 30 poor. A “*” means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate projected Game Score; these are the author’s projections. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher’s opponent for the day. W-L: Pitcher’s win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher’s earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher’s average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.

Thursday’s slate is a bit thin compared to what we’ve seen earlier this week. There are only nine games on the schedule, and we’re starting to get to the back end of teams’ starting rotations in some cases, meaning there aren’t a plethora of elite options to choose from for those who play cash games. The good news is that we have a slew of interesting streaming options to consider. DFS players should take note, too, as some of these hurlers also make for intriguing GPP plays. Let’s dive in.

The Elite

Only two pitchers on Thursday’s slate can be considered elite (though both technically fall slightly below the 70-point threshold). Unfortunately, they’re set to square off against each other, making it difficult to count on either Matt Harvey or Stephen Strasburg to secure a win.

Harvey, of course, is making his first regular season start since 2013 after being sidelined all of 2014 following Tommy John surgery, so popular opinion may be that he carries more risk than Strasburg in this matchup. That said, the New York Mets right-hander was lights-out this spring, posting a 1.19 ERA in 22 2/3 innings with 21 whiffs and just one walk. In other words, he looks more than ready to go. Plus, while the Washington Nationals boast one of the better lineups in the National League, they’re not at full strength right now with Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth and Denard Span all sidelined, so it’s not a terrible matchup.

Then again, you can’t really go wrong with Strasburg in cash games, either. He was one of only five starting pitchers with a K/9 rate north of 10.0 last season, so his upside is as high as any hurler in the game. He’s also owned the Mets in his career, sporting a 2.19 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 11.9 K/9 in six career starts.

Solid

A.J. Burnett is coming off a rough season in Philadelphia, but he’s back in Pittsburgh, where he posted a 3.30 ERA and career-best 9.9 K/9 rate in 2013, so there’s reason for optimism this season. While Great American Ballpark inflates home runs, Burnett helps mitigate that by keeping the ball on the ground (he’s posted a ground-ball rate north of 50 percent the last three years). The Reds also sported a .287 wOBA against right-handed pitchers last season, the third-worst mark in baseball, so this isn’t a particularly intimidating matchup on paper.

With a Game Score of 55, CC Sabathia technically falls into the “Solid” category, but there’s reason to be cautious in this matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays. Right-handed hitters have sported a .290/.339/.489 slash line against Sabathia the past two seasons, and the middle of Toronto’s lineup is full of right-handed hitting thumpers who will jump on mistakes. Furthermore, say what you will about spring numbers not mattering much, but it’s hard to have much confidence in the big lefty after he posted an 8.10 ERA and allowed three homers in 10 spring innings. At this point his career, Sabathia is little more than a matchup play, and this particular one carries big-time risk.

Thursday’s matchup against the San Francisco Giants is a prime spot for Ian Kennedy. He gets a home start at Petco Park, arguably the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball, and the Giants’ offense is hardly threatening. It was no more than middle-of-the-road in 2014, and that was with Hunter Pence, who’s now on the disabled list, and Pablo Sandoval, who is now a member of the Boston Red Sox. Coming off a career-best 9.3 K/9 rate in 2014, Kennedy also brings some strikeout upside in what appears to be a relatively safe matchup.

Streamers

This is the section where things start to get interesting. Shane Greene, Trevor Bauer and Daniel Norris all possess intriguing upside and are all available in at least 90 percent of ESPN.com leagues. While all three are worthy of streamer consideration, Bauer’s start against the Houston Astros might be the most interesting. The Cleveland right-hander knows how to miss bats, as he posted an 8.4 K/9 in 26 starts last year (not to mention 26 whiffs in 27 2/3 spring innings), and the Astros are one of the most free-swinging teams in the majors, as last year’s 23.8 strikeout rate can attest. DFS players should also take a long look at Bauer in GPPs.

If you seek safety more than upside with your daily streamers, Tim Hudson and Kendall Graveman are likely more up your alley. Hudson struck out just 5.7 hitters per nine innings in 2014, but he also posted a career-best 1.6 BB/9 rate along with a 53.1 percent ground-ball rate, so he does a great job limiting damage. Add in the fact that Thursday’s outing comes at Petco Park, and you have a very high floor with Hudson, which isn’t always easy to come by when streaming starters.

As for Graveman, he carries more risk, given his minimal big-league experience (five appearances), but, like Hudson, he induces tons of grounders and limits free passes, so he’s worth a look in a home start against a Texas Rangers team that isn’t nearly as dangerous as it’s been in years past.