Fantasy daily notes for July 10 – ESPN

Starting pitcher projected Game Scores for July 10
					2015 Statistics			Past 21 Days
GS	Team	Name	T	Opp	W-L	ERA	WHIP	W-L	ERA	WHIP
71		Madison Bumgarner	L	Phi	8-5	3.34	1.08	1-2	3.86	0.96
64		Gerrit Cole	R	StL	12-3	2.28	1.11	2-1	4.10	1.22
64		Cole Hamels	L	@SF	5-6	3.02	1.13	0-1	3.32	1.21
63		Danny Salazar	R	Oak	7-4	4.10	1.19	1-2	5.91	1.31
57		Noah Syndergaard	R	Ari	3-4	3.38	1.16	1-0	2.50	0.94
55		Clay Buchholz	R	NYY	7-6	3.27	1.19	4-0	0.87	0.87
55		Mike Montgomery	L	LAA	4-2	1.62	0.94	3-1	1.45	0.84
54		Michael Pineda	R	@Bos	8-5	3.79	1.21	1-2	3.96	1.12
54		Hector Santiago	L	@Sea	5-4	2.40	1.10	1-1	1.80	0.84
53		Lance Lynn	R	@Pit	6-4	2.53	1.23	2-0	0.47	1.00
53		Mike Bolsinger	R	Mil	4-3	3.09	1.28	0-2	5.21	1.74
52		Carlos Rodon	L	@ChC	3-2	4.18	1.64	1-1	5.06	1.63
52		Collin McHugh	R	@TB	9-4	4.54	1.30	3-1	2.96	1.21
51		Kyle Hendricks	R	CWS	4-4	3.82	1.15	2-2	3.86	1.16
51		Marco Estrada	R	@KC	6-4	3.59	1.16	2-1	1.96	0.87
50		Ervin Santana	R	Det	0-0	2.25	0.75	0-0	2.25	0.75
49		Jesse Hahn	R	@Cle	6-6	3.35	1.17	2-1	2.29	1.22
48		Shelby Miller	R	@Col	5-4	2.07	1.10	0-2	2.25	1.33
48*		Ian Kennedy	R	@Tex	4-8	4.84	1.31	1-3	2.35	1.13
48		Gio Gonzalez	L	@Bal	6-4	4.16	1.43	2-0	0.64	0.79
47		Erasmo Ramirez	R	Hou	7-3	3.80	1.13	1-1	1.23	0.75
47		Jimmy Nelson	R	@LAD	6-8	4.50	1.31	3-1	4.18	1.39
47		David Hale	R	Atl	2-4	5.89	1.42	0-3	7.48	1.80
47		Danny Duffy	L	Tor	2-4	5.14	1.59	0-1	3.57	1.36
46		Chase Anderson	R	@NYM	4-2	3.71	1.16	2-1	6.46	1.27
46		David Phelps	R	Cin	4-4	4.03	1.26	0-1	4.50	1.10
46		Justin Verlander	R	@Min	0-2	6.75	1.59	0-2	7.64	1.75
45		Wandy Rodriguez	L	SD	5-4	4.23	1.49	2-2	7.91	2.43
44		Chris Tillman	R	Wsh	6-7	5.57	1.56	1-0	5.54	1.62
42		David Holmberg	L	@Mia	—	—	—	—	—	—
GS: The pitcher’s projected “Game Score,” from Bill James’ original formula, which accounts for past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. A Game Score of 50 typically is typically regarded a quality start; anything over 70 is exceptional, anything under 30 poor. A “*” means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate projected Game Score; these are the author’s projections. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher’s opponent for the day. W-L: Pitcher’s win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher’s earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher’s average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.

Elite

It’s been awhile since Madison Bumgarner occupied the top spot which is reflective of the workmanlike manner that is his trademark. He doesn’t have the flash of a Chris Sale and he’ll occasionally toss a clunker like he did last time out against the Washington Nationals, but overall, his peripherals mirror last season’s and we all remember how that ended. Next up for the defending World Series champions are the Philadelphia Phillies as the Giants open a weekend set in AT&T Park. For the season, the Phillies are fanning at a league-average rate versus southpaws but since June 1, it’s a generous 23 percent. The likelihood Bumgarner goes deep into the game with goodly whiffs makes him the top cash-play of the day. Using the lanky lefty in a tournament is defensible, just beware Cole Hamels is on the other side so a win isn’t as easy as it may seem considering the opposition.

After a couple of non-Gerrit Cole like outings exiting June, the Pittsburgh Pirates’ All Star returned to form to begin July, stifling the Cleveland Indians for eight innings last time out. An impressive follow-up against the St. Louis Cardinals would add to his case to start the Mid-Season Classic. His resume already includes a 9.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 along with the 12 wins still enamored by those making the decision. It won’t be easy as the Redbirds sport a league-average offense versus righties though since June 1 they’ve hit them to the tune of a productive .332 weighted on base average. The solid Lance Lynn will oppose Cole so the game should be close thus the win in jeopardy.

As mentioned, Hamels has the formidable task of matching pitches with Bumgarner. Hamels’ skills are on a par with both Bumgarner and Cole but low run support leaves him with a sub-.500 record. The Giants offense versus left-handers is league average so Hamels should be able to keep him in check. If you’re paying up for a pitcher the chalk pick is no doubt Bumgarner. Using Hamels would be a viable contrarian option since Bumgarner’s ownership will be much too high so if the Phillies happen to get to him, Hamels would be in a great spot.

Solid

Danny Salazar began the season on a mission and even flirted with the elite but after failing to last five innings in three of his past four outings, he’s shown he lacks the consistency bereft of an ace and is thus a high-upside midtier arm. Even with his June swoon, Salazar’s peripherals are better than the three elite options previously discussed as the Indians’ righty carries a 10.8 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 into this home date with the Oakland Athletics. What differentiates Salazar from his ace counterparts is a high home run rate as he’s surrendered 13 long balls in 90 innings. The visitors have some left-handed pop and Progressive Field is accommodating in that regard. Combined, the risk-reward nature of this encounter renders Salazar a great tournament option.

The top alternative cash-game play resides in Seattle as the Los Angeles Angels visit their American League West counterpart. Hector Santiago will get ball for the visitors and will face a Seattle Mariners offense that’s tepid against southpaws. Santiago carries an 8.1 K/9 and had tossed seven stanzas in each of his last two outings so he should be able to provide an ample foundation of points for cash games.

Clay Buchholz is on quite the roll. Over his last four efforts, each spanning at least seven frames (31 total), he’s allowed a total of three runs while fanning 23 with three free passes. The New York Yankees are in Fenway Park for the opener of a weekend series and handle righties well as evidenced by a .331 wOBA, meaning Buchholz is tournament fodder.

On a team replete with sexy rookies and a staff anchored by Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks flies under-the-radar which is a shame since he’s having a solid campaign despite recording only four wins. Hendricks isn’t an ideal cash-game candidate since he’s only pitched more than six innings three times all season. However, with the Chicago White Sox heading a few blocks north to Wrigley Field, he’s a safe choice to keep the runs in check, making him a decent choice as a cash-game option on sites requiring multiple pitchers.

Before delving into the top spot-starters, Noah Syndergaard, Lance Lynn and Carlos Rodon (though to a lesser extent) are all viable tournament options based on their strikeout upside. Of the three, Syndergaard is the best option as he’s at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks with Chase Anderson on the bump for the Snakes.

Streamers

Hot Spots

If you need a win and have some wiggle room with your ratios, using Shelby Miller in Coors is perfectly defensible. Miller is a better pitcher than the Colorado Rockies’ David Hale.

Another hurler to use if chasing wins is David Phelps as the Miami Marlins welcome David Holmberg and the Cincinnati Reds to South Beach. The Reds offense is a little above average versus right-handers but they do most of their damage at home. Even without Giancarlo Stanton, the Fish should be able to tally some runs against Holmberg.

Erasmo Ramirez sports a decent but not dominant 7.5 K/9. However, facing the Houston Astros and their league-leading 26 percent whiff rate versus righty-handers adds some upside potential. Better yet, the game is in Tropicana Field, neutralizing the visitor’s home run prowess. Not only is this a viable spot-start in seasonal play, Ramirez is a great cost-saving DFS tournament option.

Gio Gonzalez and Ian Kennedy profile similarly. Both have pitched well as of late but both fare better in their pitcher-friendly home digs. Each is tasked with an interleague start in a hitter-friendly American League venue. The potential for some ratio damage is there but with Gonzalez facing the Baltimore Orioles’ Chris Tillman and Kennedy taking on Wandy Rodriguez and the Texas Rangers, chasing a win and some whiffs is viable.

Cold Streams

Given that some head-to-head leagues combine the short post All Star break week with this week and it’s still just Friday, only the truly desperate should consider using the following dumpster fires: Hale, Rodriguez, Tillman and Holmberg. Everyone else is in play, depending on your situation and risk aversion profile.