Fantasy daily notes for July 3 – ESPN

Starting pitcher projected Game Scores for July 3
					2015 Statistics			Past 21 Days
GS	Team	Name	T	Opp	W-L	ERA	WHIP	W-L	ERA	WHIP
79		Clayton Kershaw	L	NYM	5-6	3.20	1.04	0-3	2.70	0.98
67*		Chris Archer	R	@NYY	9-5	2.31	0.95	2-1	3.81	0.96
67		Masahiro Tanaka	R	TB	4-3	3.88	1.11	1-2	5.25	1.46
61		Jesse Chavez	R	Sea	4-7	3.02	1.16	2-1	4.38	1.26
60		Michael Wacha	R	SD	10-3	2.77	1.10	2-2	4.50	1.29
58		Garrett Richards	R	@Tex	8-5	3.54	1.24	3-1	2.28	1.08
57		Mike Fiers	R	@Cin	3-7	4.14	1.47	1-1	4.32	1.28
55		Noah Syndergaard	R	@LAD	3-4	3.59	1.22	1-1	3.38	1.17
55		Anibal Sanchez	R	Tor	6-7	4.63	1.18	3-0	2.05	0.88
54		Julio Teheran	R	Phi	5-4	4.94	1.40	1-2	5.13	1.29
53		Chi Chi Gonzalez	R	LAA	2-3	2.59	1.13	0-3	4.00	1.30
52		Trevor Bauer	R	@Pit	6-5	3.96	1.30	1-3	7.40	1.69
51		Gio Gonzalez	L	SF	5-4	4.41	1.49	1-1	3.78	1.44
50		Drew Hutchison	R	@Det	8-1	4.99	1.42	3-0	5.30	1.87
49		Chris Tillman	R	@CWS	6-7	5.67	1.51	3-0	5.85	1.20
49		Charlie Morton	R	Cle	6-1	4.28	1.30	3-1	5.57	1.43
48		Andrew Cashner	R	@StL	3-9	4.22	1.42	1-1	4.76	1.41
47		Michael Lorenzen	R	Mil	3-2	3.38	1.45	2-1	3.52	1.57
46		J.A. Happ	L	@Oak	3-5	3.89	1.33	0-4	5.75	1.62
46		Chase Anderson	R	Col	4-2	3.66	1.19	3-1	5.11	1.09
45		Tom Koehler	R	@ChC	6-4	3.66	1.26	2-1	3.48	1.02
44		Tommy Milone	L	@KC	4-1	3.19	1.29	2-0	1.73	1.00
44		Dan Straily	R	@Bos	—	—	—	—	—	—
43		Jake Peavy	R	@Wsh	0-2	9.39	2.09	0-2	9.39	2.09
43		Donn Roach	R	Mia	0-1	10.80	2.70	0-1	10.80	2.70
43		John Danks	L	Bal	3-8	5.38	1.48	0-3	6.11	1.36
42		Jeremy Guthrie	R	Min	6-5	5.68	1.52	2-2	5.32	1.68
41		Justin Masterson	R	Hou	3-2	5.58	1.59	1-0	0.00	1.00
40		Kyle Kendrick	R	@Ari	3-10	6.07	1.44	1-3	5.79	1.54
37		Kevin Correia	R	@Atl	0-2	3.60	1.65	0-2	3.60	1.65
GS: The pitcher’s projected “Game Score,” from Bill James’ original formula, which accounts for past history (three years’ worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. A Game Score of 50 typically is typically regarded a quality start; anything over 70 is exceptional, anything under 30 poor. A “*” means that the author has adjusted the projections. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher’s opponent for the day. W-L: Pitcher’s win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher’s earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher’s average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.

Elite

The top spot is cut and dried, so we won’t waste any time. Clayton Kershaw at home against the New York Mets is about as good as it gets. The lanky lefty will face a squad with a generous 24 percent strikeout rate against southpaws.

Now it gets interesting. Imagine how good Chris Archer‘s numbers would be if he faced his own team a couple of times per season. The hurler with the privilege of opposing Archer and the struggling Tampa Bay Rays this time around is Masahiro Tanaka, as the New York Yankees welcome their American League East rival to the Bronx for a weekend series. Archer is the better pitcher, while Tanaka is at home and has the perceived easier matchup. Who has the edge? Despite Tanaka taking on a squad with a total of six knocks against the Cleveland Indians trio of Cody Anderson, Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco, Archer gets the nod, heads up. The reason is the past few games aside, the two offenses mirror each other in terms of strikeout rate and weighted on-base average (wOBA), so the deciding factor circles back to Archer being the superior pitcher. That said, why take the chance? If you’re going to spend big, don’t get cute, just lock in Kershaw.

Solid

The better alternatives to Kershaw reside in the solid tier, beginning with Jesse Chavez, as the Oakland Athletics entertain the Seattle Mariners in an American League West clash. Chavez sports a strikeout rate of 7.8 K/9 but could improve on that a bit, as the visitors whiff at a 23 percent clip against right-handers.

Another viable option is Michael Wacha, as he and the St. Louis Cardinals welcome the San Diego Padres into Busch Stadium. Wacha’s in a similar boat as Chavez, in that his 7.0 K/9 could see a bump since the Friars fan at a 22 percent rate versus righties. In terms of DFS, Wacha and Chavez are candidates for both cash game and tournament play. They both face weak opposing offenses at home in a hitter’s venue, ideal for cash. The additional strikeout potential propels both to tournament consideration. In fact, pairing them up is a great option on multiple-pitcher sites.

There are other potential DFS plays in the solid tier, though none offer the comfort of the candidate working at home against a lesser opponent, so they’re all best reserved for tournament plays as opposed to cash games. Garrett Richards isn’t yet back to the dominance he was displaying pre-injury last season, but the potential is there, although the matchup against the lefty-heavy Texas Rangers in Arlington is dangerous. Mike Fiers‘ combination of a high strikeout rate and a high walk rate does not bode very well for a date with the Cincinnati Reds in the Great American Ballpark, as the hosts whiff less than most, while walk more than most. Julio Teheran may keep the score low as he squares off with the Philadelphia Phillies in Citizens Bank Park, just don’t expect an abundance of punchouts.

Streamers

Hot Spots

Being a pitch-to-contact guy, Charlie Morton is never safe, but working in PNC Park offers a level of comfort. Don’t expect many whiffs, but Morton should be able to keep the Indians’ offense in check. Opposing Morton will be the inconsistent Trevor Bauer, so at minimum the win is in play.

Tom Koehler doesn’t get a whole lot of fantasy love, but he’s been quietly effective, falling one out short of four straight seven-inning stints. In that 27 2/3-innings span, he whiffed a respectable 23, with only five free passes. The Chicago Cubs are explosive, but they also whiff a ton, so if you need some strikeouts, Koehler is one of the better streaming options for that purpose.

On the other hand, Tommy Milone won’t get many strikeouts, but he should be able to keep the Kansas City Royals‘ offense in check as the Minnesota Twins travel to Kauffman Stadium. The home team will be sending Jeremy Guthrie to the hill, so this is a decent spot to chase the elusive win without inflicting damage to your ratios.

Do you feel lucky — I mean really lucky? The George Springer-less Houston Astros visit Fenway Park, with Justin Masterson taking the bump for the Boston Red Sox. Masterson still handles righty swingers well; it’s lefties that are the issue. The Astros can run some left-handed hitters out there, but unless they pull the ball toward Pesky Pole, homers are hard to come by. The anemic Red Sox offense should have a fighting chance with former fantasy darling Dan Straily making his 2015 debut.

Cold Springs

Given that we’re approaching the end of the head-to-head scoring week, you may need to throw caution to the wind to make up points, there are a few starters with a huge risk and small reward. John Danks facing the Baltimore Orioles is the scariest, followed by Kyle Kendrick in Chase Field taking on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Jeremy Guthrie and Kevin Correia are best left on the sidelines.